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Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast

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SNOW MAN
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Post by oldtimer Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:38 am

Local METS think its nothing more than a very strong Artic cold front and a secondary LP intensifying south of LI that does not bomb out until it gets to NE The whole event the wind is from the SW We never get in the effect of LP Hard to get moisture with this set-up

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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:44 am

They must be seeing what Doc posted a little while ago.Always a risk in these Miller B set ups!
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Post by oldtimer Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:49 am

Frank said this is more about the cold and the wind then the snow

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Post by Guest Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:00 am

NWS put the town to my east in a blizzard warning for 5 to 8" and has me 2 miles away for a WWA for 3 to 5". My totals were lowered overnight while 2 miles away were raised?? When Frank signed off last night he was pretty confident and even felt like the event could be even bigger. He was really excited at all the models being in agreement. This year as been a shit show of forecast discrepancy. Everyone has different opinions.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:31 am

Latest Srefs Smile

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 6 SREF_QPFtotal_ne_f36

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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:39 am

Very nice, Frank! Encouraging.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:40 am

So I do not get it upton has southern CT and most of LI under blizzard warnings, and a small area including NYC western LI and westchester with only a WWA, yet still has the wind criteria of 55mph giusts for a high wind watch (yet just to west now have a warning).  Is there any chance they decide to change things today and give us a blizzard warning/HWW further west and I also see they lowered snow from 3-7 to 3-5 (might that go up later?).  Are they just playing it safe because of what happened before, seems like the area that didn't see Juno much is getting taken very lightly for this, or is it just going to have a big hole in the middle where theres a ton of wind to the west and east and all heavy snow to east.  I don't get it someone please tell me this will change and NWS in upton is taking it too cautiously.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:47 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:43 am

syosnow94 wrote:NWS put the town to my east in a blizzard warning for 5 to 8" and has me 2 miles away for a WWA for 3 to 5".  My totals were lowered overnight while 2 miles away were raised??  When Frank signed off last night he was pretty confident and even felt like the event could be even bigger.  He was really excited at all the models being in agreement. This year as been a shit show of forecast discrepancy.  Everyone has different opinions.

syo, look at my post I have a strong feeling upton is affraid to include western areas including NYC because they busted back with last blizzard. I guess we will see, its a nowcast so the advisories/warnings may not gt changed until event ongoing or not at all.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:44 am

Come on srefs farther south lol
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:45 am

I still don't understand the wishing for high winds? Do you enjoy power outages and downed trees on houses? Give me 4 feet of snow and calm winds any day.
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:46 am

@Frank - brilliant minds think alike my man - I just posted that at the same time in he obs thread - oops!!

here is the surface - a tick more west!!

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 6 SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f27

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:46 am

ok, well then a wsw or something aq wwa? while everyone else has intense warnings? I do not get the gap, doesnt make sense is all i was saying.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:46 am

NYC doesn't warrant a blizzard. QPF is between .25-.50 and it's isolated banding, not snow coming directly from the surface low itself. But if you've been reading their discussions they emphasize "blizzard-like" conditions and that's good enough.

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Post by Guest Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:47 am

You might be right But everywhere except the twin forks busted on the blizzard including sroc4's backyard, and he's in a blizzard warning so...................

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:50 am

syo makes sense but frank makes sense too but a wwa? So your thinking the snow will be too low also? And why a wind advisory when everywhere else is a blizzard or HWW, is this area blocked or something? I am not wishing chaos on people but it seems like just for this area everything backed off overnight.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:50 am

The frontogenesis tonight is going to be sick!!! Still feeling thundersnow is possible.

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 6 2zgdzjq


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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:51 am

@jmanley32 wrote:syo makes sense but frank makes sense too but a wwa? So your thinking the snow will be too low also?  And why  a wind advisory when everywhere else is a blizzard or HWW, is this area blocked or something? I am not wishing chaos on people but it seems like just for this area everything backed off overnight.

Meh, who cares. I have no explantion.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:54 am

I just realized how marginal the wind criteria difference is, its all logistics, i guess seeing pretty colors on the map just kinda clouded my mind. 55mph is 2mph away from a HWW, and WWA for 3-5 is only a few inches away froma warning these could easily change, not sure why nyc woulkdnt warrent a blizzard when same qpf extends into someof the warning areas to the east but thats how they are going to do it, is it safe to say it will still be bad hee despite the lack of warnings?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:55 am

okay so why i care is above, is this trending to be nothing for my area? Your right who has what advisories or warnings doesnt matter.
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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:55 am

@jmanley32 wrote:So I do not get it upton has southern CT and most of LI under blizzard warnings, and a small area including NYC western LI and westchester with only a WWA, yet still has the wind criteria of 55mph giusts for a high wind watch (yet just to west now have a warning).  Is there any chance they decide to change things today and give us a blizzard warning/HWW further west and I also see they lowered snow from 3-7 to 3-5 (might that go up later?).  Are they just playing it safe because of what happened before, seems like the area that didn't see Juno much is getting taken very lightly for this, or is it just going to have a big hole in the middle where theres a ton of wind to the west and east and all heavy snow to east.  I don't get it someone please tell me this will change and NWS in upton is taking it too cautiously.
It's simple NYC won't meet criteria for blizzard and may not for WSW.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:56 am

I'm really hoping for more than 2or 3 inches I know it's wishful thinking but I feel I can get some more with this storm
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:56 am

This storm is far from textbook. It's a giant flip of a coin like the title of this thread says. Every forecaster has something different. Ace is right.

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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:57 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm really hoping for more than 2or 3 inches I know it's wishful thinking but I feel I can get some more with this storm
Still like 2-4 for us...

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:57 am

@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:So I do not get it upton has southern CT and most of LI under blizzard warnings, and a small area including NYC western LI and westchester with only a WWA, yet still has the wind criteria of 55mph giusts for a high wind watch (yet just to west now have a warning).  Is there any chance they decide to change things today and give us a blizzard warning/HWW further west and I also see they lowered snow from 3-7 to 3-5 (might that go up later?).  Are they just playing it safe because of what happened before, seems like the area that didn't see Juno much is getting taken very lightly for this, or is it just going to have a big hole in the middle where theres a ton of wind to the west and east and all heavy snow to east.  I don't get it someone please tell me this will change and NWS in upton is taking it too cautiously.
It's simple NYC won't meet criteria for blizzard and may not for WSW.

thats not really an explanation as to why but okay i will leave it at that. Just seems conditions will be awful similar in the actual description of the WWA (slightly less snow for now), but its okay, and hoping this is a good storm for us too.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:00 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:This storm is far from textbook. It's a giant flip of a coin like the title of this thread says. Every forecaster has something different. Ace is right.

Understood, but isn't this area and LI and southern CT all determined by the same upton office? So they all agree presumably on what decision they made. It is a flip of a coin I do realize its a nowcast, thats just nail biting but i guess we will know soon enough, will it be okay to be out until this evening or even after over here?
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