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Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:04 pm

RB I only see RV not PV

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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:08 pm

Its going to be bad tomorrow but listening to jeff smith this storn is going to be a monster up no name way life threatening.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:14 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:RB I only see RV not PV

Ok, no worries. I meant EPV (equivalent potential vorticity). Have you ever heard of it?

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:17 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:RB I only see RV not PV

Ok, no worries. I meant EPV (equivalent potential vorticity). Have you ever heard of it?

Hmmm don't think so


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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:17 pm

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 2 B9xwJw5CIAAnQdD

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:19 pm

That's just ugly. Awesome, but ugly lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:21 pm

Curious to see GEFS

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:23 pm

And basically it takes thermodynamics as well as synoptic-scale forcings and combines them. Really great for finding potential areas of enhanced banding. Then, for the brave of heart, that kind of concept branches into symmetric instability (both potential and conditional). If you want something to really give your brain something to nosh on, that's certainly a good topic lol Basically those allow you to identify what kinds of bands of bands you'll be seeing in a situation. Really intriguing stuff, also really deep stuff ahaha

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:26 pm

Remember when globals yesterday were showing a negative tilt in the mid-level trough?

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 2 Cmc_negative

Now it just looks neutral

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 2 Gfs_z500a_us_7

If there was any semblance of blocking this could have had Roidzilla potential.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:26 pm

@rb- thanks. One day I shall learn

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Post by Math23x7 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:27 pm

Frank, what do you think of this snow map?

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 2 Snowma10

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:32 pm

Yeah it's disappointing, but we may be in line for our turn next week Laughing

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:34 pm

Are models trying to hone in on a solution for where the inverted trough sets up?

Latest 00z CMC

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f33

00z GFS H850 VV's

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 2 GFS_3_2015021400_F30_VVELD_850_MB

And remember what the 00z NAM showed...so...interesting

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:38 pm

What does the frame before that look like?

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:39 pm

@rb924119 wrote:What does the frame before that look like?

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f27

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f30

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:40 pm

Besides central NY, GGEM would match my snow map. These are 10:1 ratios

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 2 Post-155-0-53684000-1423888854

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:42 pm

Thanks, Frank. I get scraped that run lol Dammit ahaha I'm not worried. I'm all about short-range guidance now. And to be honest, RGEM was not nearly as impressive with the trough signature. I think H5 was more disorganized.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:43 pm

Yeah it would. Perfectly. If that trough does set up, whoever is on either side is going to get screwed big time. So much subsidence.

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Post by Guest Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:44 pm

Hey fellas. Frank nice job buddy. Nowcast time. I've been MIA since late afternoon. I'm happy with 6-10" If less I run the forum for a week. Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Hopefully we all get a solid 4 to 8" and everyone is happy. Vicadin and beer time!!!

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Post by oldtimer Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:44 pm

Frank Jeff Smith got me 36* tomorrow Am I going to warm up 25* from now? He said wet roads for awhile

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:44 pm

High bust potential no matter what. Tuesday looks like a smoother forecast.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:46 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:High bust potential no matter what. Tuesday looks like a smoother forecast.

Agree x2 lmao Wow, I'm down to -11* already ahaha -15-20 here we come!!

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:47 pm

Got a lotttttttt of moistening to do for it to snow lmfao

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:50 pm

UKIE looks like GGEM/NAM

Wow...consensus??

NYC may be able to get 6"

Any local Mets forecasting that?

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:51 pm

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 2 P1_GZ_D5_PN_030_0000

Update #3: Final Call Snow Map, Flip A Coin Type Of Forecast - Page 2 P1_GZ_D5_PN_036_0000

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