FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

[sroc4]

I am a little concerned with some current observations. At 500mb It looks like the Ridge is already flattening out to the west.  The jet streak diving in on the Back side already looks to be rounding the base of it and it does not look all that impressive to me at the moment.  Not good if we want this to dig


The circle labeled 1 is undercutting the ridge as we speak and circle 2 is about to crash the party as well. The Yellow arrow is pointing to sinking air which is a sign our system is strong, but Im concerned.  Circle 3 in the top left corner is the trough that is coming down that will re amplify the ridge setting us up for the next potential Tues/Wed.  Circle 4 is our energy gathering for Tues/Wed
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Image below is 300mb.  The 300mb streak is still strong which should allow our trough to continue to dig a little more, but most models have 500mb closing off between now and noon.  As you can see by the image above not yet


The other thing that has my attention is the RGEM which has been one of our most reliable models has backed off drastically on total QPF amounts.  Im not sure what to believe here or how it all still plays out but I am discouraged to say the least.  I will cont to monitor observations to see how this unfolds.  First image was 00z second is the latest 6z.  
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I could be wrong about all this and I hope I am, but if not please don't shoot the messenger.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Where did I leave my 12 gauge?

[docstox12]

Better cut that big toenail on your right foot first.

This is nowcast all the way.

Cloudy, cold, no wind at all.

[Radz]

9.9* with very light snow shower wind calm

[sroc4]

Def now cast time. The observations I made can def change for the better as we move along.

[docstox12]

I like the way precip is building in south and west PA on radar.

[Frank_Wx]

And so it begins...



Buckle up

[sroc4]

Man I wish I didn't have to work today.

[amugs]

That radar looks nice good convention out there. I think people are going to be surprised by this at least I am hoping.

[rb924119]

Have warmed from -11* at 12:30am to +11* now. Have had steady flurries since daybreak. Good sign that the atmosphere is already saturated to the surface. No wasted snow this time around!!!!

[amugs]

21z srefs nice run hope it verified

[skinsfan1177]

25° 58% humidity 12% dewpoint windchill 21° barometer falling 29.80

[Guest]

Good morning all. we are almost there. Is Frank still as encouraged as last night at 1:30??

[Frank_Wx]

Seems to be digging pretty good still at H5

[oldtimer]

Gee I'm at 27* already with a increasing SW wind At this rate I could get above freezing Hope not

[Frank_Wx]

Is this reaching the ground?

[jmanley32]

Not here nope.

[Frank_Wx]

Yea, it is

[snow247]

Not reaching the ground here, although I think I have seen a few flurries at times.

[gigs68]

Is this reaching the ground?

Not reaching the ground yet.  Had a couple of stray flurries

[snemiroff]

Not here

[HeresL]

Light flurries here!

[docstox12]

Not reaching the ground here, although I think I have seen a few flurries at times.

Same here, snow, very light flurries.

[Frank_Wx]

Nvm then, haha

[Frank_Wx]

We have to wait until mid or late afternoon. Atmosphere needs to moisten up.

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