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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) Empty FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:22 am

I am a little concerned with some current observations. At 500mb It looks like the Ridge is already flattening out to the west.  The jet streak diving in on the Back side already looks to be rounding the base of it and it does not look all that impressive to me at the moment.  Not good if we want this to dig
FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) 500mb_sf

The circle labeled 1 is undercutting the ridge as we speak and circle 2 is about to crash the party as well. The Yellow arrow is pointing to sinking air which is a sign our system is strong, but Im concerned.  Circle 3 in the top left corner is the trough that is coming down that will re amplify the ridge setting us up for the next potential Tues/Wed.  Circle 4 is our energy gathering for Tues/Wed
FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) <a href=FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) Wv10" />
FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) Wv-animated

Image below is 300mb.  The 300mb streak is still strong which should allow our trough to continue to dig a little more, but most models have 500mb closing off between now and noon.  As you can see by the image above not yet
FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) 300mb_sf

The other thing that has my attention is the RGEM which has been one of our most reliable models has backed off drastically on total QPF amounts.  Im not sure what to believe here or how it all still plays out but I am discouraged to say the least.  I will cont to monitor observations to see how this unfolds.  First image was 00z second is the latest 6z.  
FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) <a href=FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) Rgem_t10" />
FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) <a href=FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) Rgem_t11" />

I could be wrong about all this and I hope I am, but if not please don't shoot the messenger.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:32 am

Where did I leave my 12 gauge?
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:38 am

Better cut that big toenail on your right foot first.

This is nowcast all the way.

Cloudy, cold, no wind at all.
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Post by Radz Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:55 am

9.9* with very light snow shower wind calm
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:58 am

Def now cast time. The observations I made can def change for the better as we move along.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:14 am

I like the way precip is building in south and west PA on radar.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:16 am

And so it begins...

FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) Inxr1Kunva_h

Buckle up

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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:28 am

Man I wish I didn't have to work today.

_________________
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:30 am

That radar looks nice good convention out there. I think people are going to be surprised by this at least I am hoping.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:34 am

Have warmed from -11* at 12:30am to +11* now. Have had steady flurries since daybreak. Good sign that the atmosphere is already saturated to the surface. No wasted snow this time around!!!!

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:37 am

21z srefs nice run hope it verified

FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) SREF_QPFtotal_ne_f36

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:43 am

25° 58% humidity 12% dewpoint windchill 21° barometer falling 29.80
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:44 am

Good morning all. we are almost there. Is Frank still as encouraged as last night at 1:30??

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:56 am

Seems to be digging pretty good still at H5

FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) 500mb_sf

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Post by oldtimer Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:56 am

Gee I'm at 27* already with a increasing SW wind At this rate I could get above freezing Hope not

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:59 am

Is this reaching the ground?

FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) Inxr1Kphla_h

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:00 am

Not here nope.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:00 am

Yea, it is

FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) Wv-animated

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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:00 am

Not reaching the ground here, although I think I have seen a few flurries at times.
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Post by gigs68 Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:02 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Is this reaching the ground?

FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) Inxr1Kphla_h

Not reaching the ground yet.  Had a couple of stray flurries
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Post by snemiroff Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:04 am

Not here

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Post by HeresL Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:04 am

Light flurries here!
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:04 am

@snow247 wrote:Not reaching the ground here, although I think I have seen a few flurries at times.

Same here, snow, very light flurries.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:04 am

Nvm then, haha

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:05 am

We have to wait until mid or late afternoon. Atmosphere needs to moisten up.

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