FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
I am a little concerned with some current observations. At 500mb It looks like the Ridge is already flattening out to the west. The jet streak diving in on the Back side already looks to be rounding the base of it and it does not look all that impressive to me at the moment. Not good if we want this to dig

The circle labeled 1 is undercutting the ridge as we speak and circle 2 is about to crash the party as well. The Yellow arrow is pointing to sinking air which is a sign our system is strong, but Im concerned. Circle 3 in the top left corner is the trough that is coming down that will re amplify the ridge setting us up for the next potential Tues/Wed. Circle 4 is our energy gathering for Tues/Wed

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Image below is 300mb. The 300mb streak is still strong which should allow our trough to continue to dig a little more, but most models have 500mb closing off between now and noon. As you can see by the image above not yet

The other thing that has my attention is the RGEM which has been one of our most reliable models has backed off drastically on total QPF amounts. Im not sure what to believe here or how it all still plays out but I am discouraged to say the least. I will cont to monitor observations to see how this unfolds. First image was 00z second is the latest 6z.

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I could be wrong about all this and I hope I am, but if not please don't shoot the messenger.

The circle labeled 1 is undercutting the ridge as we speak and circle 2 is about to crash the party as well. The Yellow arrow is pointing to sinking air which is a sign our system is strong, but Im concerned. Circle 3 in the top left corner is the trough that is coming down that will re amplify the ridge setting us up for the next potential Tues/Wed. Circle 4 is our energy gathering for Tues/Wed


Image below is 300mb. The 300mb streak is still strong which should allow our trough to continue to dig a little more, but most models have 500mb closing off between now and noon. As you can see by the image above not yet

The other thing that has my attention is the RGEM which has been one of our most reliable models has backed off drastically on total QPF amounts. Im not sure what to believe here or how it all still plays out but I am discouraged to say the least. I will cont to monitor observations to see how this unfolds. First image was 00z second is the latest 6z.


I could be wrong about all this and I hope I am, but if not please don't shoot the messenger.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
Where did I leave my 12 gauge?
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
Better cut that big toenail on your right foot first.
This is nowcast all the way.
Cloudy, cold, no wind at all.
This is nowcast all the way.
Cloudy, cold, no wind at all.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
9.9* with very light snow shower wind calm
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
Def now cast time. The observations I made can def change for the better as we move along.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
I like the way precip is building in south and west PA on radar.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
And so it begins...

Buckle up

Buckle up
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
Man I wish I didn't have to work today.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
That radar looks nice good convention out there. I think people are going to be surprised by this at least I am hoping.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
Have warmed from -11* at 12:30am to +11* now. Have had steady flurries since daybreak. Good sign that the atmosphere is already saturated to the surface. No wasted snow this time around!!!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
21z srefs nice run hope it verified


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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
25° 58% humidity 12% dewpoint windchill 21° barometer falling 29.80
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
Good morning all. we are almost there. Is Frank still as encouraged as last night at 1:30??
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
Seems to be digging pretty good still at H5


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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
Gee I'm at 27* already with a increasing SW wind At this rate I could get above freezing Hope not
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
Is this reaching the ground?


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jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
Yea, it is


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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
Not reaching the ground here, although I think I have seen a few flurries at times.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
Frank_Wx wrote:Is this reaching the ground?
Not reaching the ground yet. Had a couple of stray flurries
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
Light flurries here!
HeresL- Posts : 122
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
snow247 wrote:Not reaching the ground here, although I think I have seen a few flurries at times.
Same here, snow, very light flurries.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
Nvm then, haha
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Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)
We have to wait until mid or late afternoon. Atmosphere needs to moisten up.
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» December 14th-15th Storm Thread
» Tropical Storm Andrea Observations/Discussions Thread
» March 14th-15th Possible Storm
» FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
» January 15th-16th Storm Thread
» Tropical Storm Andrea Observations/Discussions Thread
» March 14th-15th Possible Storm
» FEB 14th-15th STORM POTENTIAL
» January 15th-16th Storm Thread
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