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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:28 am

Woke up this morning to a measly half inch on the ground. What a joke.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:41 am

At work got about 5 I,ches here still snowing heavy wind
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:42 am

Yes Ace looks like a band coming from the north to south
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Post by Quietace Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:45 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Yes Ace looks like a band coming from the north to south
Yeah its around 20-25 dbz now as its strengthened in the last 45 minutes or so

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Post by cooladi Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:45 am

Can't tell how much snow fell or didn't fall because of the wind blowing things around. Maybe an inch or less I'm guessing. Craay windy out there, praying the power stays on.

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Post by Quietace Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:49 am

FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 DIX.N0Q.20150215.1148

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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

Post by Guest Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:50 am

Storm report: never mind there was none!

Absolute embarrassment. Worst storm ever. Woke up to an inch! Are you freakin kidding me. Yeah I know it had huge bust potential but when you're forecasted to get about 8" and get 1"??????

I have a name for this storm. The BUSTED DONUT STORM!!! Busted is easy to figure out just look at the totals in NYC metro and western half of LI. Donut is because all areas surrounding me got 3 to 6". Doc up in HV 3", Quietace in Jersey 6"+, sroc4 out east 4". Literally surrounded by snow. Also when someone tells you 8 inches of snow is coming along with 50mph winds, you think about the snow. 6 to 10" is significant, so to say the winds and cold were always going to be the story with this storm is false!

The local mets who were saying 1 to 3" all along were right again as we all (me included) sat here and laughed at their forecast.

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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

Post by billg315 Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:04 am

10* with light to moderate snow here currently. I'd guess we have about 1-2" but not in a good place to take "official" multiple measurements. Breezy but not extremely windy. We'll see how long this band sits over central NJ before it dries up or moved out.
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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

Post by Quietace Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:04 am

syosnow94 wrote:Storm report:  never mind there was none!

Absolute embarrassment.  Worst storm ever.  Woke up to an inch!  Are you freakin kidding me.  Yeah I know it had huge bust potential but when you're forecasted to get about 8" and get 1"??????  

I have a name for this storm.  The BUSTED DONUT STORM!!!  Busted is easy to figure out just look at the totals in NYC metro and western half of LI.  Donut is because all areas surrounding me got 3 to 6".  Doc up in HV 3", Quietace in Jersey 6"+, sroc4 out east 4".  Literally surrounded by snow.  Also when someone tells you 8 inches of snow is coming along with 50mph winds, you think about the snow.  6 to 10" is significant, so to say the winds and cold were always going to be the story with this storm is false!

The local mets who were saying 1 to 3" all along were right again as we all (me included) sat here and laughed at their forecast.
This is for the Banter thread....

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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

Post by Guest Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:05 am

@Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Storm report:  never mind there was none!

Absolute embarrassment.  Worst storm ever.  Woke up to an inch!  Are you freakin kidding me.  Yeah I know it had huge bust potential but when you're forecasted to get about 8" and get 1"??????  

I have a name for this storm.  The BUSTED DONUT STORM!!!  Busted is easy to figure out just look at the totals in NYC metro and western half of LI.  Donut is because all areas surrounding me got 3 to 6".  Doc up in HV 3", Quietace in Jersey 6"+, sroc4 out east 4".  Literally surrounded by snow.  Also when someone tells you 8 inches of snow is coming along with 50mph winds, you think about the snow.  6 to 10" is significant, so to say the winds and cold were always going to be the story with this storm is false!

The local mets who were saying 1 to 3" all along were right again as we all (me included) sat here and laughed at their forecast.
This is for the Banter thread....

Why? I gave my report! 1" and a few other reports as well! I talked about the winds. Can you not critique anymore. Just because it was a long report with some clever venting doesn't mean it's banter!


Last edited by syosnow94 on Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:07 am; edited 1 time in total

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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

Post by Quietace Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:07 am

Guys please take non storm obs else where thanks.......

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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

Post by Quietace Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:10 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Storm report:  never mind there was none!

Absolute embarrassment.  Worst storm ever.  Woke up to an inch!  Are you freakin kidding me.  Yeah I know it had huge bust potential but when you're forecasted to get about 8" and get 1"??????  

I have a name for this storm.  The BUSTED DONUT STORM!!!  Busted is easy to figure out just look at the totals in NYC metro and western half of LI.  Donut is because all areas surrounding me got 3 to 6".  Doc up in HV 3", Quietace in Jersey 6"+, sroc4 out east 4".  Literally surrounded by snow.  Also when someone tells you 8 inches of snow is coming along with 50mph winds, you think about the snow.  6 to 10" is significant, so to say the winds and cold were always going to be the story with this storm is false!

The local mets who were saying 1 to 3" all along were right again as we all (me included) sat here and laughed at their forecast.
This is for the Banter thread....

Why?  I gave my report! 1" and a few other reports as well! I talked about the winds.  Can you not critique anymore.  Just because it was a long report with some clever venting doesn't mean it's banter!
No you can, it was mostly the last half but its all good...

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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

Post by Quietace Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:15 am

Minimal visibility in this band...still arcing south

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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:18 am

good morning Smile ..just woke up an peeked out..snowed but have no idea how much blowing so hard
still snowing lightly
my therm.. 12 degrees
noaa wind 22 mph gusts 32
will be able to measure my own in next week or two..hubby ordered me for valetines day my first weather station..does that mean honeymoon over????..lol
can someone tell me when worst winds supposed to come through?..probably missed the post saying when......
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Post by Quietace Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:22 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:good morning  Smile ..just woke up an peeked out..snowed but have no idea how much blowing so hard
still snowing lightly
my therm.. 12 degrees
noaa wind 22 mph gusts 32
will be able to measure my own in next week or two..hubby ordered me for valetines day my first weather station..does that mean honeymoon over????..lol
can someone tell me when worst winds supposed to come through?..probably missed the post saying when......
They should stay steady through the day. Wind gusts should increase slightly before they die off a bit tonight. I just had one last hour up to 47mph...

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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:45 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Sorry I fell asleep and missed that heavy band that snow247 was talking about. I wanted to make sure I was specific with the correct snow who mentioned the heavy band. As I have mentioned before the in breeding with all of the people named Snow on this forum is a little disconcerting.

Just went out for the official measurements. 1.1 from yesterday and 1.2 from last nights pop up band, 2.3 inch storm total. Season now at 51.2 inches, 1 inch now above seasonal average.

So according to Al's post right before mine this time we got screwed by a Meso high pressure system that wedged right between the 2 waves of low pressure. And Juno we got scrooed because an IVT formed to our west drying up precip over us. What's next a giant dome comes out of the sky during the next storm, like that dopey TV show and prevents any snow from hitting the ground? Somehow we keep getting screwed yet I have over 50 inches of snow and a foot and a half snow pack. Sorry but I just can't get pissed off because somehow when all is said and done this winter is working out. Franks and Sroc's pattern change and Mugs to his credit too were calling for this pattern change and they were all correct.

Still lots of storm signals out there so hopefully one hits big time this week and we all score. Looks like congrats this one goes out to NJ who BTW really deserved it, and Al and Skins who also deserve it, and all other central Jersey people who got under the IVT.

I may go back to bed now because I'm hoping Monday night will be a late night tracking.

One last thing, if I lose power today because of high winds I'm never speaking to Jman again. Very Happy

9.7 and windy. Has dropped a degree just since I've started typing.

Looking for at least -10 tonight, if clouds don't come in Monday night I expect even a bit colder.

CP, glad you were able to measure.I had eyeballed about three, but I included that .25 inch from a couple of days ago. I'm knocking .45 off my total right now 52-.45=51.55 for the season.

Great write up here and very true.In spite of all the curveballs, we have a little above average HV winter of over 50 inches and I couldn't be happier than a pig in poop! Mahwah always averaged about 36 inches.As you say, a lot more to go with possibly more tuesday and always that possible late March-early April HV surprise.

I deserve the HV Cluster of Snowflakes Medal for moving up here and producing a good season in spite of all the oddball storms!!!

Oooops, sorry moderators my big mouth blabbing again, should be in weather banter , but it is howling out there with ground blizzards.Winter at it's best!!!
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:49 am

@Quietace wrote:Guys please take non storm obs else where thanks.......

Hey ace we should be close to are seasonal average
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:49 am

@Quietace wrote:Guys please take non storm obs else where thanks.......

Hey ace we should be close to are seasonal average
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Post by Quietace Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:50 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Guys please take non storm obs else where thanks.......

Hey ace we should be close to are seasonal average
average is 21 inches

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Post by Dtone Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:52 am

I got nothing. A dusting from Sat afternoon that didnt last long anyway. So a trace of snow for me. I wont get too upset cuz bust potential seemed very high. I'm curious where If anywhere did it snow?? And why is winter weather advisory still in effect for 0.0" of snow.

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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:57 am

Hey Syo get over yourself with your "clever venting".  That kind of discussion in here will be deleted.  It is banter and belongs there.  This is for discussion and observations.  Not Whining and cheesing.  

So here is why there are so many areas that under performed plain and simple.  If you go back to the very first post on this thread it says it all.  H5 did not do what models and forecasters thought it would do.  It was forecasted to close off up over the great lakes.  In fact the one thing these stupid models were most consistent of was H5 closing off to the north somewhere over or just N of the great lakes.  Every model showed this run after run for days.  The question with this storm was never when it closes off but rather where the Upper Level LP center passed.  Did it track SE through central to western PA and exit the coast more S around Delaware well south over LI like the CMC showed or did it pass SE through Western NY, E PA and rotate off the coast right over LI like we were worried about the GFS showing?  We kept monitoring the trend of that ULL Track run after run, day after day, but again the question was never when, but where the upper level LP center passed.  Well guess what it never really did either.  It closed off for brief periods starting around 10pm last night.  But lets take a look at it this morning.   Yup not closed...why?  Because the ridge collapsed to the west.  And that folks was the concern the entire time with this system.  Look how gradual a slope it is.
FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 <a href=FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 500mb_10" />

The fact that this northern energy was as strong as it was and the fact that we had a decent ridge for a short period of time is the only reason we saw some snow in the first place.  But we never saw the true potential of what could have been if it was closed off to our south right now.
Below is the WV inmagery I posted from yeterday.  The second is from this morning as of 7:45am this morning.  You can see the new ridge axis that has developed secondary to the trough in the top left.  
FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 <a href=FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 Wv11" />
FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 <a href=FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 Wv_tod10" />

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 15, 2015 8:01 am

@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Guys please take non storm obs else where thanks.......

Hey ace we should be close to are seasonal average
average is 21 inches

Where we at total for season
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Post by down tines Sun Feb 15, 2015 8:02 am

Still snowing
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 15, 2015 8:03 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Sorry I fell asleep and missed that heavy band that snow247 was talking about. I wanted to make sure I was specific with the correct snow who mentioned the heavy band. As I have mentioned before the in breeding with all of the people named Snow on this forum is a little disconcerting.

Just went out for the official measurements. 1.1 from yesterday and 1.2 from last nights pop up band, 2.3 inch storm total. Season now at 51.2 inches, 1 inch now above seasonal average.

So according to Al's post right before mine this time we got screwed by a Meso high pressure system that wedged right between the 2 waves of low pressure. And Juno we got scrooed because an IVT formed to our west drying up precip over us. What's next a giant dome comes out of the sky during the next storm, like that dopey TV show and prevents any snow from hitting the ground? Somehow we keep getting screwed yet I have over 50 inches of snow and a foot and a half snow pack. Sorry but I just can't get pissed off because somehow when all is said and done this winter is working out. Franks and Sroc's pattern change and Mugs to his credit too were calling for this pattern change and they were all correct.

Still lots of storm signals out there so hopefully one hits big time this week and we all score. Looks like congrats this one goes out to NJ who BTW really deserved it, and Al and Skins who also deserve it, and all other central Jersey people who got under the IVT.

I may go back to bed now because I'm hoping Monday night will be a late night tracking.

One last thing, if I lose power today because of high winds I'm never speaking to Jman again. Very Happy

9.7 and windy. Has dropped a degree just since I've started typing.

Looking for at least -10 tonight, if clouds don't come in Monday night I expect even a bit colder.

CP, glad you were able to measure.I had eyeballed about three, but I included that .25 inch from a couple of days ago. I'm knocking .45 off my total right now 52-.45=51.55 for the season.

Great write up here and very true.In spite of all the curveballs, we have a little above average HV winter of over 50 inches and I couldn't be happier than a pig in poop! Mahwah always averaged about 36 inches.As you say, a lot more to go with possibly more tuesday and always that possible late March-early April HV surprise.

I deserve the HV Cluster of Snowflakes Medal for moving up here and producing a good season in spite of all the oddball storms!!!

Oooops, sorry moderators my big mouth blabbing again, should be in weather banter , but it is howling out there with ground blizzards.Winter at it's best!!!


CPA nd doc lmao with your humor and thanks for the shout out.

Okay eyeballed 1" but my Irish wife says 3" hmm??? Maybe it is an Irish thing.

Winds are frickin' howling here but thanks to my batteries dying on my wind gauge it says gusts 2.3 mph when I check w underground and we have had 42 mph gust up here.

Good for those in CNJ and SNJ. My fireplace is roaring and just hoping NO ONE loses power

Last night at my friends at 10PM temp was 24* and when I got home at 12:30 temp was 18*.

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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 15, 2015 8:04 am

If the ULL was closed like this in this position as of this morning (black circle) we would have all sorts of instability in the atmosphere to the north of it (yellow circle),and the IVT would be set up pummeling someone right now.
[img]FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 500mb_11[/img]

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FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions) - Page 27 Empty Re: FEB 14th-15th Storm Thread (Observations and Discussions)

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