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Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla?

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Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? Empty Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla?

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:35 am

Good morning ladies and gents,

There is no rest for the weary here. There is yet another possible snowstorm in the not-so distant future. In fact, it could come this Tuesday and it actually has Godzilla potential. I will also go as far as saying that I am pretty confident someone is going to see a significant snowfall out of this.

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_9

The 00z GEFS 500mb height anomaly is a pretty impressive set-up for an east coast cyclogensis. Notice the ultimate 50/50 low in SE Canada which is our current weekend system. The PV is favorably placed over the Hudson and helping to force our northern stream energy to dive south over the eastern CONUS. Lastly, most impressive of all is the west ridge spike that extends into the EPO region. There are also higher heights showing up north of the 50/50 Low which will also help in setting up some blocking for this potential system. Overall, H5 looks really nice for getting an east coast storm this Tuesday.

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? Euro_5

The latest 00z EURO ejects a piece of southern energy out of the western U.S. and shoots it toward the east coast. Due to the confluence to our north, this piece of energy is able to dig into the trough a bit and allow heights to rise along the east coast. The surface low that forms in the southeast then has a clear path to tracking up the coast and bringing our area a sizable snow event. Between the large 50/50 and the higher heights just south of Greenland, there is a strong indication this storm will track just off or along the coast rather than escape out to sea.

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f63

Here was the latest EURO for Tuesday morning.

WHAT TO WATCH:

1. If there is phasing with northern stream energy in future runs, this could over-amplify the system which would bring a storm track much further west. Either up the apps or right on the coast. Obviously either track would bring precip. type issues to parts of the area. It's best we keep this just southern stream based.

2. How strong could this storm get? I have a feeling even though it may be just southern stream dominant, it may still be an impressive system. Between the block to our north and the Gulf helping to moisturize it, I could see it getting sub 990mb.

3. If the PV continues to come further south in the future, it may try to squash the southern stream energy which would result in a storm track out to sea regardless of the block we have. I do not see this happening, however.

I will have a detailed blog about this either tomorrow night or Monday afternoon.


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:39 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:42 am

Great update Frank, I have a good feeling about this one. Hopefully we all win with this.

Here's to hoping!
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Post by Artechmetals Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:55 am

Frank nice write up , would that storm be more widespread than what we have been seeing
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:56 am

@Artechmetals wrote:Frank nice write up , would that storm be more widespread than what we have been seeing

Yes, unless it's a glancing blow where only NYC and points east see snow. That would suck, wouldn't it?

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Post by Artechmetals Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:59 am

Oh no , that's been the scenerio I hope not
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:01 am

00z GFS

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f63

00z GGEM

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f66

00z UKMET

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000

00z NAVGEM

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? Nvg10.prp.066.namer

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:03 am

Notice the dip in the NAO around the 17th

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? Gfs_t1534_nao_bias

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Post by Artechmetals Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:05 am

What does that dip mean
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:26 am

NWS mentioning this could be more for the coast so my enthusiasm will definitely tempered being in the HV,LOL!
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:45 am

Wish I could post the image but I am on mobile now. The latest SREF mean gets the orange shade back to Albany and State College, red shade from Rockland and Northern Westchester on south through all of NJ, NYC LI and east through all of the southern counties of CT. That is very good correct? Looks like a heavy lean NW.
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Post by 2004blackwrx Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:58 am

Good to see this. Just watchin the weather channel which I know is not the best source they have been hinting at this potential for days. Suddenly today when I looked the storm was staying south only getting to the carolinas then going out to sea. Glad to see the potential still exists.

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Post by Guest Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:10 am

the fact you guys are up tracking another potential storm at an Ungodly hour while we are in the middle of yet another storm where we got screwed is scary. You have problems!!!!! Wait....I'm doing the same thing! Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 15, 2015 8:11 am

Good news to see NWS downplaying the tuesday storm to only 1 to 2 inches for my area.These are the setups I like best, start off very low and then they play catch up during the storm.Potential is there for something anyway.
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 15, 2015 8:16 am

Great write up Frank and two things here and I have been saying this that PNA ridge in the west is stout and will be a good difference this time around but my concern being the HP ca press down too much but just enough so as to not make this a coastal scrapper.

I have a really good feeling about his one and historically speaking the euro handles the southern vorts much better and we do much better with when the stj is pumping which it will with this  and miller A's.
They usually over perform, that would be a nice change.

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? Sref_namer_063_mslp

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? SREFUS6Precip03060

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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 8:39 am

Hoping for great trends today.
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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 15, 2015 9:26 am

Over the past couple runs it seems like the GFS wants to suppress this a bit to our south and then take it a little too far east once it hits the coast. Hoping that changes a bit in today's models. Of course it could always over-correct, bring it back inland and we get rain or mix. So it really is threading a needle.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 9:28 am

Tuesday storm on the NAM is looking further north and stronger through hour 42.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 9:30 am

Hour 45 light snow to NYC and moderate snow to Phi.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 9:31 am

Low off the coast of NC at hour 45.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 9:34 am

Not going to do it this run, but it is still further north and stronger than the last run. On to the GFS.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 9:36 am

Nice hit for south/central Jersey again.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 9:36 am

Kentucky gets crushed with 10"+ of snow for most of the state on the NAM. This is their Neptune.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 9:40 am

NAM is a general 1"-2" for most, 2"-4" as you head south, not sure what the ratios would be though. Still time for improvements.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 9:41 am

Comparing, this NAM run is like a million miles north than the last run lol.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 9:44 am

FWIW, last frame of the RGEM looks nice for this storm.
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