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Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla?

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Post by Joe Snow Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:54 pm

PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY/MON
BAJA ENERGY SHEARING OUT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST TUE A.M.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ON MON
SURFACE LOW TRACKING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST ON TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

AFTER SEVERAL ENSEMBLE CYCLES OF A WEAKENING TREND TOWARD THE
FLATTER ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS...A MARKED SHIFT IN THE 00Z/15 ENSEMBLE
PACKAGE HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE PREVIOUS EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD REGARDING A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
CURRENT ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW SIMILAR SPREAD TO
YESTERDAY...BUT THEY ARE JUST DISPLACED TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED
SIDE OF THE CURRENT MODEL SPREAD.

LOOKING AT THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE TRACK FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TONIGHT...THE 12Z NAM/GFS ARE A
BIT FLATTER THAN EVEN SHORT TERM FORECASTS FROM THE 00Z
NMM/ARW...13Z HRRR...14Z RAP. HOWEVER...THESE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUPPORT A 00Z ECMWF/UKMET BLEND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1
PERIOD. **ALL** OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SHARPER
WITH THIS FEATURE SINCE YESTERDAY...AND MAY STILL BE TRYING TO
CATCH UP TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

DUE TO THE CHANGES SEEN AND TRENDS...WE WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THE
MORE AMPLIFIED CAMP...BEST SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET...WHICH IS AGREED UPON BY THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN THE MODELS AND
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:57 pm

Well I don't mind that. ⬆️⬆️⬆️⬆️
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Post by Joe Snow Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:05 pm

SURFACE LOW TRACKING NWD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TRACKING NWD
THROUGH THE WRN ATLANTIC ON WED...BUT THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SCATTER
LOW PLOTS HAVE THIS LOW ANYWHERE BETWEEN 100 AND 500 MILES EAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS 12Z/18...WED MORNING. THIS WAVE IS PARTIALLY TIED TO
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WED MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE REFERENCED IN THE ABOVE SECTION...THIS WAVE HAS BEEN
TRENDING SLOWER/SHARPER BY WED MORNING OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND THAT TREND...TO SOME DEGREE...IS CONTINUED IN THE 12Z
ECMWF/UKMET. IT IS EXPECTED THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FROM THE COAST TO NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON LAND...BUT A 12Z
ECMWF/UKMET BLEND WILL BE PREFERRED FOR NOW...STAYING CONSISTENT
WITH THE ABOVE SECTION. AGAIN...GIVEN SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
CHANGES IN THE MODELS AND HIGH MODEL SPREAD...CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:15 pm

Key words again, confidence is low....confidence: below average and it's only 2 days away...

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:19 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Key words again, confidence is low....confidence: below average and it's only 2 days away...

Bingo Janet.
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:21 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Key words again, confidence is low....confidence: below average and it's only 2 days away...

Who has confidence in these models so .... we have been burned on both ends to many times so they are going to cya imo. Like I said next 2 cycles of runs by euro, cmc,ukie will tell the fate of our storm.

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:23 pm

Mugsy, the last 2 events we were due to get decent snowfall and busted, we had that invasion of cold dry air coming down the Hudson...was there anything on the models that could have foreseen that? Were we too focused on other pieces of the puzzle?

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Biggin23 Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:27 pm

Isn't this system a lot less complicated? We aren't depending on a IVT, not having to time up cold air, it's just predicting where the moisture gets. I would think the models would be a little more consistent moving forward with this event.

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Post by lglickman1 Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:27 pm

I was just going to ask a similar question, what is it about this winter's pattern that is making it so hard for models to predict the storms?

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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:27 pm

Lot's of mathematical work needed on these models to add in all these variables.How to do it? I'm not your guy, but I'm sure computer mathematicians can tinker with these models and get to the day where that low confidence statement is never seen again.
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Post by Joe Snow Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:39 pm

Current 500s.......

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 6 Curren10
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:39 pm

Nice improvement on the latest SREFS. 0.5 inch line just south of NYC.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:41 pm

Thinking the 18z runs will a bit better for us and then the 00z runs will be much better.
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Post by Joe Snow Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:43 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Lot's of mathematical work needed on these models to add in all these variables.How to do it? I'm not your guy, but I'm sure computer mathematicians can tinker with these models and get to the day where that low confidence statement is never seen again.


The NWS is in the process of upgrading their Super computer from 2.5 Petaflops to 5 Petaflops, which will increase calculations 10 fold and have more accurate model guidance.


Article: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150105_supercomputer.html
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Post by lglickman1 Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:49 pm

Snow, what makes you think it will trend better?

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:53 pm

@snow247 wrote:Thinking the 18z runs will a bit better for us and then the 00z runs will be much better.

Honestly snow it sounds more like you're wishing than reasoning.

We all do at times.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:03 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@snow247 wrote:Thinking the 18z runs will a bit better for us and then the 00z runs will be much better.

Honestly snow it sounds more like you're wishing than reasoning.

We all do at times.

I might be lol, we shall see I guess.
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:04 pm

i think if we don't we will all go crazy at this point, 1 storm has to give for everyone..right?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:04 pm

I actually have the same sentiments as snow. But I'll give my reasons:

1. Not only have the euro ensembles and srefs trended west, but the storm itself is also stronger and has more precip. A stronger system means it's coming from our south from more of a southwest track rather than a due south track. The quicker the surface low matures, the closer to the coast the track.

2. The ridging in the west is way too impressive for this storm to just slide out to sea. No matter what, I think someone is going to see accumulating high ratio snow.

3. Latest trends show the 50/50 low much further north than yesterday. Now that this storm is concluding for even NE, models have a better idea of the timing of when it moves out.

4. Don't forget about the positive heights south of Greenland I talked about last night. Argues for a storm system closer to the coast. That plus an intensifying surface low with Gulf moisture, should make for interesting 00z runs. I doubt 18z runs show anything. Old data.

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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:05 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:i think if we don't we will all go crazy at this point, 1 storm has to give for everyone..right?

Yea that's what I said earlier, with all of these storms passing through the past few weeks and now, you would think that at least one of them would produce and satisfy all of us.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:18 pm

@algae888 wrote:withtemps in the single digits to teens and no wind ratios should be 15:1 or greater. .3 to .5qpf should bring a 5 to 10" snowfall for our area

i hope so al, but my expections are very low.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:29 pm

NAM is still south. Thankfully, it's the NAM and it's 18z.

Still needs to be watched though.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:30 pm

@Joe Snow wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Lot's of mathematical work needed on these models to add in all these variables.How to do it? I'm not your guy, but I'm sure computer mathematicians can tinker with these models and get to the day where that low confidence statement is never seen again.


The NWS is in the process of upgrading their Super computer from 2.5 Petaflops to 5 Petaflops, which will increase calculations 10 fold and have more accurate model guidance.


Article: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150105_supercomputer.html

Excellent. This is what is needed , an investment in computer technology, to help get better accuracy.

Great post Joe Snow!


Last edited by docstox12 on Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:32 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:31 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I actually have the same sentiments as snow. But I'll give my reasons:

1. Not only have the euro ensembles and srefs trended west, but the storm itself is also stronger and has more precip. A stronger system means it's coming from our south from more of a southwest track rather than a due south track. The quicker the surface low matures, the closer to the coast the track.

2. The ridging in the west is way too impressive for this storm to just slide out to sea. No matter what, I think someone is going to see accumulating high ratio snow.

3. Latest trends show the 50/50 low much further north than yesterday. Now that this storm is concluding for even NE, models have a better idea of the timing of when it moves out.

4. Don't forget about the positive heights south of Greenland I talked about last night. Argues for a storm system closer to the coast. That plus an intensifying surface low with Gulf moisture, should make for interesting 00z runs. I doubt 18z runs show anything. Old data.

Excellent, Frank, I like the analysis and can actually follow most of from slowly learning here.
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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:40 pm

18z NAM basically the same as 12z maybe a little south actually. Good thing it's the 18z NAM. Euro Ens look pretty good, maybe slightly NW of the OP

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