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Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla?

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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:03 pm

My first call, was going to wait until midnight but whatever. Thoughts?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:05 pm

Looks good!

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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:07 pm

Some people have said that this storm reminds them of the 12/5/02 snowstorm. I don't remember this, but apparently it was expected to be a 3-6 inch storm and ended up being a 5-8 inch storm for most and areas NW of NYC cashed in a bit more due to better ratios. Anyone else see any similarities?
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:08 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Looks good!

Thanks
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:09 pm

You Know What: I'm HAPPY DC and BM are getting a good storm finally. What a white-free winter for them so far.
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Post by Joe Snow Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:10 pm

@snow247 wrote:Some people have said that this storm reminds them of the 12/5/02 snowstorm. I don't remember this, but apparently it was expected to be a 3-6 inch storm and ended up being a 5-8 inch storm for most and areas NW of NYC cashed in a bit more due to better ratios. Anyone else  see any similarities?


http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/05-Dec-02.html

Read about it here............
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:10 pm

What is Delaware looking at for accumulations anyone. Family asking
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:12 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:What is Delaware looking at for accumulations anyone. Family asking

6-10"

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:13 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:What is Delaware looking at for accumulations anyone. Family asking

6-10"

Thank you
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:15 pm

00z RGEM looks like 18z. About 2-4" for NYC

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Post by RJB8525 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:15 pm

Upton holding strong with 4-6, I wonder when advisorys will go out? Mt holly went out 5-6ish
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Post by oldtimer Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:19 pm

Frank I with air and dew points so low any issue with Virga

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:21 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Frank   I with air and dew points so low any issue with Virga

Yes, the first hour or so might be virga. Gotta get those higher VV's (vertical velocities) in.

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:21 pm

@snow247 wrote:My first call, was going to wait until midnight but whatever. Thoughts?

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 12 First_10

Good map. Looks very realistic at this point. I still think there is a chance that we could bump all those zones about 15-20 miles north and west, depending on what the models show tomorrow morning. But for now, this is probably the right call.
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Post by oldtimer Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:22 pm

Oh yea I see Thanks Frankie

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:23 pm

What's the timing on this storm
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:25 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:What's the timing on this storm

Start time around 1-2am

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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:26 pm

Ughhhh come on GFS. I want to watch it initialize, see how little I'm going to get and then go to bed in the hopes of waking up and seeing an entirely snowier picture by every other model in the morning lmfao

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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:29 pm

Snow, GREAT map, by the way!!! Totally agreeable first-guess. Yet again, I probably won't be able to make one because of work, but it would be in 100% agreement with yours lol

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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:30 pm

And let the show begin!!! 00z GFS up and running.....

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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:32 pm

Thanks guys, really hoping I can bump all of those accumulations far north and west, we shall see.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:32 pm

00z GFS is rolling, good luck to all!
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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:33 pm

You know, I just thought of something: Because this has access to Gulf moisture, if we can get a good amount of convection going, that diabatic heating may allow a closer track. Granted, you'd need a lot of it, but you're starting to get to that point in the season where moisture transport really starts opening up. Models are notoriously bad at handling this, so if there is convection, we may see last-minute changes. Not saying this is going to happen, or even likely, but just a possibility still on the table.

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Post by RJB8525 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:33 pm

God help us
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Post by Joe Snow Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:34 pm

Current HRRR @ 17z 2-16-15
Thoughts?

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