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Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla?

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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:36 pm

@Joe Snow wrote:Current HRRR @ 17z 2-16-15
Thoughts?

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 13 2-15-111

A lot of virga on the northern end lol

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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:37 pm

00z GFS doesn't look much different than 12z at H5...

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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:38 pm

I told y'all (in touch with my southern 'stream' ;-) -- Winter Weather Advisory (2-4, 3-6) for NYC and nothing more. T'is not our storm. We've got more potential on the horizon.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:38 pm

00z GFS looking much better through hour 0

lol, just kidding.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:40 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:I told y'all (in touch with my southern 'stream' ;-) -- Winter Weather Advisory (2-4, 3-6) for NYC and nothing more. T'is not our storm. We've got more potential on the horizon.

That's a solid storm and what most have been expecting. Anything more than 4 inches is bonus.

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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:40 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I told y'all (in touch with my southern 'stream' ;-) -- Winter Weather Advisory (2-4, 3-6) for NYC and nothing more. T'is not our storm. We've got more potential on the horizon.

That's a solid storm and what most have been expecting. Anything more than 4 inches is bonus.

It's not a Godzilla.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:42 pm

00z GFS

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 13 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f36

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 13 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f39

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:43 pm

If I get 4-6 where I am at, I will be happy. Everyone these days only wants the 12" plus storm. We don't get a whole lot of those in this area. It happens and when it does it is awesome, but for many years if I got 6" of snow, I considered it a big storm. I suppose there is an inappropriate joke to be made here but I'll leave it alone.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:43 pm

Well good night, everybody!! I'll check back in the morning. Time for this boy to get some sleep lol Good luck, y'all!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:44 pm

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 13 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

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Post by WeatherBob Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:47 pm

Total QPF?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:49 pm

This is the type of set-up that models should NOT be struggling with. RGEM/GFS de-amplifying the short wave in the Midwest is a concern. This is the risk you get when there is no northern stream involvement. The air mass over us is also very cold. Not as excited about this event as I was this morning, but a nice light accumulation is still likely.

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Post by Joe Snow Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:49 pm

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 13 20_go_10



NOOOOOOOOOOOO
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:52 pm

Godzilla angry? Haha. That better not be me in his hand. Lets make it sroc

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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:53 pm

Huge ice storm thru the MAISON Dixon though
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Post by oldtimer Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:54 pm

So cool Joe lol

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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:54 pm

@Joe Snow wrote:Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 13 20_go_10



NOOOOOOOOOOOO

Haha that's amazing
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Post by Joe Snow Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:55 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:This is the type of set-up that models should NOT be struggling with. RGEM/GFS de-amplifying the short wave in the Midwest is a concern. This is the risk you get when there is no northern stream involvement. The air mass over us is also very cold. Not as excited about this event as I was this morning, but a nice light accumulation is still likely.


I just do not get the models struggling even with the simplest systems, I won't be surprised if this over preforms for some crazy reason..........
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Post by Yschiff Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:57 pm

Frank I was reading somewhere that a lot of times with these miller A type of storms the model's under do the precip?

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Post by Joe Snow Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:00 pm

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 13 2-15-112


Current RADAR with Vapor..........
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Post by sabamfa Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:00 pm

Frank are you still thinking there will be as much snow in AC?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:01 pm

@Yschiff wrote:Frank I was reading somewhere that a lot of times with these miller A type of storms the model's under do the precip?

This is not Miller A. We should clear this up now. In my opinion, it is more of a SWFE (southwest flow event). Miller A's usually have phasing involved with the northern branch. This is just a southern stream driven system from a piece of energy that ejected out of the Baja upper low in the SW CONUS. While it does have Gulf moisture to work with, it's also moving into an arctic air mass. The precip shield should be expansive but how about the precip rates? That is what may hold down accumulations.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:01 pm

@sabamfa wrote:Frank are you still thinking there will be as much snow in AC?

Yes, at least 4-6" for them. No doubt.

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:05 pm

@Joe Snow wrote:Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 13 2-15-112


Current RADAR with Vapor..........
Starting to come together. And still looks far enough north to me that it shouldn't 'miss' (not totally of course) us to the south. On the other hand, it is fast moving, and the air so dry that I do think big totals will be tough to come by if you're not in the heaviest bands.
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Post by oldtimer Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:08 pm

Thanks Frank I can really understand about SWFE Am I good for 3+

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