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Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla?

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Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla?

Post by RJB8525 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:02 am

according to TWC, significant storm for NY up to boston all snow according to Nizol at this point

what does this really mean? the TWC kiss of death
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:06 am

@jimv45 wrote:Not looking at GFS right now but if the other models start trending east then i start to say bring on spring because were running out of time with this great cold air for all snow.

Geez Jim, bring on spring on February 15th?? I'm not exactly up today and optomistic but that's an over reaction. Go have some coffee, or get some sleep and let's rethink that.
In the HV snowstorm season isn't over till the second week in April and in some years not even then.
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Post by Biggin23 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:07 am

I think it continues to tick north each run. Probably won't see any major shifts, but another 75 to 100 miles north and/or west would bring up some decent precip!

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:12 am

@Sanchize06 wrote:GFS wasn't that bad, still shows 3-6" for basically the whole area with Jersey Shore and LI closer to the 6" amounts

snow output is nowhere near that much we barely get scraped,
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Post by Quietace Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:14 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:GFS wasn't that bad, still shows 3-6" for basically the whole area with Jersey Shore and LI closer to the 6" amounts

snow output is nowhere near that much we barely get scraped,
Your right it's like 2-5 west to east ...lol
Maybe NW to SE


Last edited by Quietace on Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:16 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:16 am

Not seeing what you guys are talking about.

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 3 Gfs_6h10
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Post by Yschiff Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:18 am

Look at this http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=063

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:19 am

@Yschiff wrote:Look at this http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=063

ok well this must be a cold storm as thats with ratios, so its a high ratio storm then, thats good news.
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Post by Quietace Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:19 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Not seeing what you guys are talking about.

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 3 Gfs_6h10
Exactly 2-5 NW to SE? With solid temps and VV you'll get decent ratios?

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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:23 am

@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Not seeing what you guys are talking about.

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 3 Gfs_6h10
Exactly 2-5 NW to SE? With solid temps and VV you'll get decent ratios?

I knew I wasn't going crazy lol. It's a decent snowfall and considering it's still south of the UKMET/EURO I think it puts us in pretty good shape

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:27 am

Look at the size of the weekend storm in southeast Canada. 50/50 lows are good, but thats more like a cyclone. It's keeping heights along the east coast too flat so only DC and SNJ get into the brunt of the action.

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_sd_namer_6


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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:29 am

12z rgem:

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 3 P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000

Big hit for southern areas. We get scraped.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:31 am

As of now this looks primarily like a Mid Atlantic threat. Whatever snow we do see though should be high ratio, probably 15:1.

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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:31 am

cp not this year! if this storm misses us mark my word the next 2 weeks and then we start coming out of this yes we can get a storm up here in March and even April but you must be dreaming if you think theses storms are just going to all of a sudden start hitting the only storms that we get are from the west not up the coast!!! and we know what that means as we get later in season will see!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:32 am

12z Cmc

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 3 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f51

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 3 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f54

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Post by oldtimer Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:32 am

No chance for kicking more N Frank?

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Post by mancave25 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:32 am

A couple of days ago everyone was saying this was the best shot we have for snow with a Miller A storm. Now everyone is backtracking. What the hell is going on with this models this year?

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Post by Quietace Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:33 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z rgem:

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 3 P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000

Big hit for southern areas. We get scraped.
What type of QPF are we looking at from RGEM?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:33 am

Funny. The weekend storm screws NYC and it may also indirectly screw us with the Tuesday setup.


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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:34 am

@Quietace wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:12z rgem:

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 3 P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000

Big hit for southern areas. We get scraped.
What type of QPF are we looking at from RGEM?

Here was the snowmap

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 3 Rgem_asnow_neus_16

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Post by Quietace Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:36 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:12z rgem:

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 3 P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000

Big hit for southern areas. We get scraped.
What type of QPF are we looking at from RGEM?

Here was the snowmap

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 3 Rgem_asnow_neus_16
That's not to bad for most. Solid light to moderate event

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:37 am

12Z Summary: Tue (AM-PM) 2/17

QPF NYC region

SREF: 0.25 - 0.50 (West to East)
NAM: 020 - 0.50 (west to east)
GFS: 0.15 - 0.40 (west to east)
GGEM: 0.10 - 0.30

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Post by Guest Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:38 am

@docstox12 wrote:The models suggest but I will look at the radar when the storm hits.Last night's radar at 9PM told the tale.The low formed off DC and went almost due east.Saw the precip moving that way and knew we were in trouble.The steering winds took it E-SE and then sharply  up North so Jim Cantore could do his thundersnow dance,LOL!

i watched the Cantore video and loved it. Lets face it we are ALL jealous! He's living the dream. He gets to be in the heaviest snows and tracks the weather and gets paid for it. I love the guy. Oh and by the way TWC has been pretty accurate as much as it pains a lot of us to hear.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:40 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:The models suggest but I will look at the radar when the storm hits.Last night's radar at 9PM told the tale.The low formed off DC and went almost due east.Saw the precip moving that way and knew we were in trouble.The steering winds took it E-SE and then sharply  up North so Jim Cantore could do his thundersnow dance,LOL!

i watched the Cantore video and loved it.  Lets face it we are ALL jealous!  He's living the dream.  He gets to be in the heaviest snows and tracks the weather and gets paid for it.  I love the guy.  Oh and by the way TWC has been pretty accurate as much as it pains a lot of us to hear.

Agree. I would pay to be in Boston now just to see what it's like. As a winter weather enthusiast, you have to find it somewhat fascinating.

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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:43 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:12Z Summary:   Tue (AM-PM)  2/17

QPF  NYC region

SREF:  0.25 - 0.50  (West to East)
NAM:  020 - 0.50 (west to east)
GFS: 0.15 - 0.40 (west to east)
GGEM: 0.10 - 0.30

Looks pretty good, with ratios seems like a solid 3-6" for most and we haven't seen the UKIE/EURO at 12z yet and they were the most north models.

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