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March 25th Storm Thread

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:13 am

Yea 12z runs will be big today. I'll keep everyone posted.

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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:46 am

12z NAM is more SE but still a good run and probably better because the other runs are a little too close to the coast.

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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:51 am

Definitely less precip further north you go but it looks colder. Of course this is still the NAM 72-84 hrs away,lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 11:01 am

NAM cut back pretty significantly. Everything looks a little more sheared out this run. Heights were flatter off the coast because a piece of the ULL broke off and just kept spinning in new england.

March 25th Storm Thread - Page 2 Nam_3hr_snow_acc_east_29
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 22, 2013 11:07 am

Stupid Nam.

I never should have complemented it.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 12:54 pm

12z NAVGEM is now on board

March 25th Storm Thread - Page 2 Nvg10.prp.084.namer
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 12:55 pm

GFS at the 500mb level was just 6 hours too late of destroying many people in NJ and NYC with snow.

There will be a sharp cutoff with this storm for northern areas, unfortunately. Not looking good for HV
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 12:57 pm

12z GEFS

March 25th Storm Thread - Page 2 2mmx2e10
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Post by amugs Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:05 pm

Frank it didn't post - things are getting interesting and I believe as we get closer the models will act kind of the way they did back with teh Feb blizzard not really knowing until the night/morning before it hit. Time will tell but the trends look good Very Happy
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:09 pm

amugs wrote:Frank it didn't post - things are getting interesting and I believe as we get closer the models will act kind of the way they did back with teh Feb blizzard not really knowing until the night/morning before it hit. Time will tell but the trends look good Very Happy

Yes trends do look good.

The key is to get the energy to transfer soon and for heights to remain high off the coast. If heights are flat, the storm will remain weak and further out to sea. The ULL needs to GET OUT THE WAY which allows heights to rise off our coast. I do not think this storm will get cleanly depicted until tomorrow.

By the way, 12z GGEM still look amped. Waiting for maps.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:13 pm

March 25th Storm Thread - Page 2 I_nw_g1_EST_2013032212_081
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Post by amugs Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:19 pm

That looks real good at this time juncture! Once again that ULL to our North is the culprit - who do I need to call to move it Joe Sanzari?? He has the equipment and know how. Chat room tonight 10PM?? What do you think or we wait for tomorrow night? Your call kid.
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Post by Sferra01 Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:24 pm

I have been following the forum for a while, but never post. I am just wondering if this storm is still a possibility, why did Bill Evans say at 12pm that it is going to remain suppressed mostly to the south? Does it still have a good shot of moving north? I'm on LI.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:26 pm

I'm not sure if I will be around tonight. If this was a Godzilla type storm I would definitely be here. But you all can go into the chat and organize your own. I'm not needed for it to operate. Lol.

I will also try and get out a 1st call snowfall map later this afternoon since I will be working most of the day tomorrow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:27 pm

Sferra01 wrote:I have been following the forum for a while, but never post. I am just wondering if this storm is still a possibility, why did Bill Evans say at 12pm that it is going to remain suppressed mostly to the south? Does it still have a good shot of moving north? I'm on LI.

I'm not sure why he said that. I mean, we do have to figure out timing still. Because of the heaviest snows falls during the day it will not stick very well. But we will see snow. Whether it be light or moderate remains to be seen. I'm not thinking anything over 6+ at this juncture though.
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:06 pm

Bill and the pro mets are always slow to bring up the possibility of large storms, they were burned in the past and tend to be conservative. If I recall, they were still calling for 1-3 inches last monday until the evening news when it was already snowing and then they changed it to 3-6. They will probably start talking about it tomorrow morning, I don't see Lee talking about it tonight, still too many variables...
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:10 pm

CMC Snow map

March 25th Storm Thread - Page 2 Cmc_snow_acc_east_19
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:10 pm

EURO has caved. Looks much better
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Post by Sferra01 Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:31 pm

Thanks for the reply. Guess I will be keeping it tuned here for updates!! This board has a lot of good information and the write ups are excellent!

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Post by amugs Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:50 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Bill and the pro mets are always slow to bring up the possibility of large storms, they were burned in the past and tend to be conservative. If I recall, they were still calling for 1-3 inches last monday until the evening news when it was already snowing and then they changed it to 3-6. They will probably start talking about it tomorrow morning, I don't see Lee talking about it tonight, still too many variables...

Zoo,

They will remain conservative (1-3" range)until tomorrow evening would be my guess since Bill last month gave a lengthy explanation as to why teh reamin conservative the ol' 2001 debacle of teh "Storm of teh Century" that never materialized for the city and NNJ areas. They have been instructed by their higher ups to wait 24-36 hour rule for them. Funny because Lee has been chompingta the bit it seems tome with this one making remarks about it all week long - maybe it is just me overanalyzing but we shall see......

The euro caving is saying something - is it really caving though? It showed this storm on 6 consecutive runs last week and it showed a pretty strong storm at that?? If I a missing something here please inform. Laughing

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:56 pm

amugs wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Bill and the pro mets are always slow to bring up the possibility of large storms, they were burned in the past and tend to be conservative. If I recall, they were still calling for 1-3 inches last monday until the evening news when it was already snowing and then they changed it to 3-6. They will probably start talking about it tomorrow morning, I don't see Lee talking about it tonight, still too many variables...

Zoo,

They will remain conservative (1-3" range)until tomorrow evening would be my guess since Bill last month gave a lengthy explanation as to why teh reamin conservative the ol' 2001 debacle of teh "Storm of teh Century" that never materialized for the city and NNJ areas. They have been instructed by their higher ups to wait 24-36 hour rule for them. Funny because Lee has been chompingta the bit it seems tome with this one making remarks about it all week long - maybe it is just me overanalyzing but we shall see......

The euro caving is saying something - is it really caving though? It showed this storm on 6 consecutive runs last week and it showed a pretty strong storm at that?? If I a missing something here please inform. Laughing

Mugs

I do not remember last week very well but these last 4-5 days it has been consistently showing a more southern solution. Now it has caved to the GFS/GGEM of a secondary coastal.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:56 pm

By the way, I issued a 1st call snow map already
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:59 pm

JMA!!!!!

March 25th Storm Thread - Page 2 CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 8:41 pm

Quick Blog

http://epawablogs.com/march-25th-storm-update/
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Post by Quietace Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:46 pm

Welll....Um... yeah, the 00z NAM
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:58 pm

March 25th Storm Thread - Page 2 Nam_3hr_snow_acc_east_29

What the hell...

Lol

If you read the blog, I said the GGEM is bullish because it shows phasing. NAM just came in, and it shows phasing. If there is going to be a phase, there is going to be a big storm
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Post by Math23x7 Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:16 am

Frank, you should do another live-chat for this storm, even though model runs are an hour later due to Daylight Savings Time.

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