Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

by **billg315** Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:40 pm

Snow has advanced into DC. Reporting Light Snow 18*. Ashburn VA has Light Snow 18*. So that puts the leading edge about 6 hours or so away. Also, the northern edge of the main precipitation shield has moved slowly and modestly north during the day from the Ohio-KY border into central Ohio. Columbus OH now has Light Snow and Morgantown WV near the PA border has moderate Snow. I don't see this thing going south of what the models have shown. Maybe when it hits the coast a small jog north, but further south than expected I don't think so.

by **billg315** Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:45 pm

On the radar looks like the snow is finally trying to bust its way across the Mason-Dixon line in western PA from Ohio and W.VA.

by **snow247** Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:51 pm

Nashville was expected to get 3-7 inches of snow, but all they have been getting today is freezing rain and what looks like only an inch of snow at the most. Probably doesn't mean anything for us, but could this mean that the storm is slightly further north than expected?

by **RJB8525** Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:52 pm

Advisory is out

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO NOON EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK CITY...AS WELL AS EASTERN
ESSEX AND EASTERN UNION COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE TEENS.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THE TUESDAY MORNING RUSH. SNOW ENDS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISBILITIES
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.

by **Quietace** Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:53 pm

4km NAM total QPF
February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 Hires_11

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:53 pm

Dry air clearly having an effect. I have decided that my 1st call snow map will be my final call.

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 Post-747-0-47498900-1424119622

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 Post-747-0-47498900-1424119622

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:54 pm

This is officially my final call. Only adjustment I would make is to slightly move the 6-10" further south.

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 10989129_889441031107657_2347818906336222316_n

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 10989129_889441031107657_2347818906336222316_n

by down tines Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:57 pm

Thanks just a follower not a poster

by **billg315** Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:59 pm

snow247 wrote:Nashville was expected to get 3-7 inches of snow, but all they have been getting today is freezing rain and what looks like only an inch of snow at the most. Probably doesn't mean anything for us, but could this mean that the storm is slightly further north than expected?

Hard to say if the storm is little further north or whether the warm air just made it a little further north. I do notice that it is snowing moderately in Dayton, OH from a heavier band that has formed on the back far NW side of the storm from Ohio into central Indiana just south of Indianapolis. They were supposed to get less than an inch total as they were too far north. Be interesting to see if they end up with a little more.

by **billg315** Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:04 pm

Frank's map looks pretty solid to me. I think a lot of areas on the southern tier of the 2-4 will in fact get the 4, but likewise those on the NW side of it may only get 2 or 3.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:06 pm

billg315 wrote:Frank's map looks pretty solid to me. I think a lot of areas on the southern tier of the 2-4 will in fact get the 4, but likewise those on the NW side of it may only get 2 or 3.

Yes, I was thinking about adding a 3-5" zone but it's negligible. A Met once told me if you do not have any drastic changes to make to your 1st call, then do not even bother with a final call. Anyways, always good to go with your first hunch. Clear signal of being less reliant on the models and more reliant on what's happening in the atmosphere. It's clear to me the midwest short wave is not that strong and we'll also be battling some dry air.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:06 pm

The humidity here is at 40% it needs to get up to 60% or more the air is dry

by **billg315** Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:09 pm

You can see on the radar the precip is fighting the dry air north of the mason-dixon. Just can't punch through all day. It's going to get here, but very slowly.

by **snow247** Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:11 pm

Nice little glacier/brown snow refresher incoming.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:49 pm

Light to moderate snow on the HRRR by 5am. Looks like it starts around 1am. Steadiest between 4-7am. Tapers off by 9-10am.

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 Hrrr_ref_nyc_15

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 Hrrr_ref_nyc_15

Congrats to QuietAce, Skins and Tom. 4-8" jackpot.

by **billg315** Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:55 pm

Snow finally making northward progress on the radar. Finally into PA. Nice moderate to heavy band pushing east-northeast through central Ohio into PA just west of Pittsburgh.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:58 pm

Im concerned about busting low around 1-2", wall of dry air and RGEM looks horrible. RAP is concerning as well, hate putting my bets on upper end accums on NAM, we know how that goes.

by Yschiff Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:05 pm

Great video by Bernie Rayno
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/current-weather-news/video/3901417444001/storm-targets-dc-richmond-and?autoStart=true

by **Quietace** Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Light to moderate snow on the HRRR by 5am. Looks like it starts around 1am. Steadiest between 4-7am. Tapers off by 9-10am.

Congrats to QuietAce, Skins and Tom. 4-8" jackpot.

I really do hope so...Pretty skeptical, but optimistic at the same time looking over things

by **Quietace** Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:17 pm

Heights at H5 over the past 6 hours have slowly rising...
February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 500mb

by **lglickman1** Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:30 pm

Meaning? More north?

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:34 pm

I think so it may start moving a little more northly. Is this correct ace

by **Quietace** Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:35 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I think so it may start moving a little more northly. Is this correct ace

You should start to see the precip start moving into the area slowly south to north

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:37 pm

Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I think so it may start moving a little more northly. Is this correct ace
You should start to see the precip start moving into the area slowly south to north

That's what I thought humidity currently 50% should rise more

by **Quietace** Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:39 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I think so it may start moving a little more northly. Is this correct ace
You should start to see the precip start moving into the area slowly south to north

That's what I thought humidity currently 50% should rise more

Yeah very soon
February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 700mb

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:00 pm

Precip is trying to make its way in snj

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:07 pm

Hi Ace and Skins..I am 29 miles north(Halzet) of you do you see us getting more than 3 inches in your opinion...just wondering...son hoping school will be cancelled tom..lol

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