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February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

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February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:51 pm

Nashville was expected to get 3-7 inches of snow, but all they have been getting today is freezing rain and what looks like only an inch of snow at the most. Probably doesn't mean anything for us, but could this mean that the storm is slightly further north than expected?


Last edited by snow247 on Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:52 pm

Advisory is out

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO NOON EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK CITY...AS WELL AS EASTERN
ESSEX AND EASTERN UNION COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE TEENS.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THE TUESDAY MORNING RUSH. SNOW ENDS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISBILITIES
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.
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February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by Quietace Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:53 pm

4km NAM total QPF
February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 Hires_11

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:53 pm

Dry air clearly having an effect. I have decided that my 1st call snow map will be my final call.

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 Post-747-0-47498900-1424119622

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:54 pm

This is officially my final call. Only adjustment I would make is to slightly move the 6-10" further south.

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 10989129_889441031107657_2347818906336222316_n

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Post by down tines Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:57 pm

Thanks just a follower not a poster
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February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:59 pm

@snow247 wrote:Nashville was expected to get 3-7 inches of snow, but all they have been getting today is freezing rain and what looks like only an inch of snow at the most. Probably doesn't mean anything for us, but could this mean that the storm is slightly further north than expected?
Hard to say if the storm is little further north or whether the warm air just made it a little further north. I do notice that it is snowing moderately in Dayton, OH from a heavier band that has formed on the back far NW side of the storm from Ohio into central Indiana just south of Indianapolis. They were supposed to get less than an inch total as they were too far north. Be interesting to see if they end up with a little more.
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:04 pm

Frank's map looks pretty solid to me. I think a lot of areas on the southern tier of the 2-4 will in fact get the 4, but likewise those on the NW side of it may only get 2 or 3.
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February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:06 pm

@billg315 wrote:Frank's map looks pretty solid to me. I think a lot of areas on the southern tier of the 2-4 will in fact get the 4, but likewise those on the NW side of it may only get 2 or 3.

Yes, I was thinking about adding a 3-5" zone but it's negligible. A Met once told me if you do not have any drastic changes to make to your 1st call, then do not even bother with a final call. Anyways, always good to go with your first hunch. Clear signal of being less reliant on the models and more reliant on what's happening in the atmosphere. It's clear to me the midwest short wave is not that strong and we'll also be battling some dry air.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:06 pm

The humidity here is at 40% it needs to get up to 60% or more the air is dry
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:09 pm

You can see on the radar the precip is fighting the dry air north of the mason-dixon. Just can't punch through all day. It's going to get here, but very slowly.
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:11 pm

Nice little glacier/brown snow refresher incoming.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:49 pm

Light to moderate snow on the HRRR by 5am. Looks like it starts around 1am. Steadiest between 4-7am. Tapers off by 9-10am.

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 Hrrr_ref_nyc_15

Congrats to QuietAce, Skins and Tom. 4-8" jackpot.

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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:55 pm

Snow finally making northward progress on the radar. Finally into PA. Nice moderate to heavy band pushing east-northeast through central Ohio into PA just west of Pittsburgh.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:58 pm

Im concerned about busting low around 1-2", wall of dry air and RGEM looks horrible. RAP is concerning as well, hate putting my bets on upper end accums on NAM, we know how that goes.
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Post by Yschiff Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:05 pm

Great video by Bernie Rayno
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/current-weather-news/video/3901417444001/storm-targets-dc-richmond-and?autoStart=true

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Post by Quietace Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:09 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Light to moderate snow on the HRRR by 5am. Looks like it starts around 1am. Steadiest between 4-7am. Tapers off by 9-10am.

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 Hrrr_ref_nyc_15

Congrats to QuietAce, Skins and Tom. 4-8" jackpot.
I really do hope so...Pretty skeptical, but optimistic at the same time looking over things

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Post by Quietace Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:17 pm

Heights at H5 over the past 6 hours have slowly rising...
February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 500mb

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Post by lglickman1 Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:30 pm

Meaning? More north?

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:34 pm

I think so it may start moving a little more northly. Is this correct ace
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Post by Quietace Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:35 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I think so it may start moving a little more northly. Is this correct ace
You should start to see the precip start moving into the area slowly south to north

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:37 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:I think so it may start moving a little more northly. Is this correct ace
You should start to see the precip start moving into the area slowly south to north

That's what I thought humidity currently 50% should rise more
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Post by Quietace Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:39 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:I think so it may start moving a little more northly. Is this correct ace
You should start to see the precip start moving into the area slowly south to north

That's what I thought humidity currently 50% should rise more
Yeah very soon
February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 6 700mb

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:00 pm

Precip is trying to make its way in snj
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:07 pm

Hi Ace and Skins..I am 29 miles north(Halzet) of you do you see us getting more than 3 inches in your opinion...just wondering...son hoping school will be cancelled tom..lol
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