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February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:41 am

Yep, that GGEM Frank posted above really cuts this thing south.All this cold air has me concerned about suppresion here.

Fingers crossed and we'll see tomorrow.Howling winds rattling the house woke me up.Must be 3 or 4 below here by now.
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:45 am

@devsman wrote:what in the hell are going on with the models?!! I would figure that with every model bust we have had, this will be the opposite. Look for 5-10 inches on LI.

It's honestly unheard of.
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:05 am

Forecast discussion from Mt. Holly at 4:30 this morning is interesting. Notes south trend and states they put Philly area in advisory because they currently forecast 4" but warning criteria is 5". They say that's a tough call. Then they drop this in: "There will probably be adjustments later today . . . Which could result in upgrades so keep up with the latest." If Philly bumps up to 4-6" warning criteria, with the orientation of the storm I would think the same happens for much of central NJ right up to near NYC. So I'm still in wait and see mode until early this afternoon.
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:07 am

I suspect the reason is they think the south trend of some models has been overdone and may correct a bit north closer to the storm.
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:11 am

The other interesting thing is the short duration. They note for NE PA and far NW NJ the storm may only last 3-5 hours while it may last 10-12 at the SNJ coast. That also accounts for the suppressed totals N and W.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:20 am

Winter storm warning has been issued for me
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:21 am

all 6z guidance came slightly north. what has my attention is this from nws...
February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 2 SnowAmt90Prcntl
February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 2 SnowProbGT4
February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 2 SnowProbGT6
those are pretty good prob for >4" of snow.
plus im hearing nnm and arw are pretty amped up. ratios are def going to be high so even .25qpf can produce 4-5" of snow.
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:43 am

Very interesting. Basically saying a 50-50 chance if not slightly better of 4"+ in NYC area, with a one in three of 6-plus. So they're saying flip a coin on this being a 2-4 storm or a 4-8 storm for NYC.
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:48 am

It sure wouldn't take much of a bump to the north for that 4-8 across the southern 1/3 of NJ to get up here. 40-50 miles.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:48 am

Im a little confused here for my area it seems to have stayed the same with amounts . but last night I thought D.C, and Delaware where looking at more snow than me like 6-10 but that doesn't seem to be.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:52 am

Bill Evans just showed 1-3 for city and 3-6 for cnj. I think reason is because it being so cold it may take awhile to hit the ground
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:01 am

NBC "adjusted" 3-5 for city according to them lol
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:05 am

My biggest concerns with this storm are that it's so cold and dry it takes forever for the snow to start reaching the ground and it moves so fast we only get a few hours of snow. This is certainly the case on the northern edge of the storm. The further north the storm comes the less those are concerns.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:07 am

It was strange when he was showing the maps he showed total accumulations and it should 5 inches in the city then showed a map of 1-3 for NYC and that's when he made mention of cold and sounded like that would knock down amounts Idk it was confusing
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:08 am

@billg315 wrote:Forecast discussion from Mt. Holly at 4:30 this morning is interesting. Notes south trend and states they put Philly area in advisory because they currently forecast 4" but warning criteria is 5". They say that's a tough call. Then they drop this in: "There will probably be adjustments later today . . . Which could result in upgrades so keep up with the latest." If Philly bumps up to 4-6" warning criteria, with the orientation of the storm I would think the same happens for much of central NJ right up to near NYC. So I'm still in wait and see mode until early this afternoon.

Warning criteria for Philly is 5 inches.

Warning criteria for NYC is 6 inches.

That difference will probably keep NYC out of WSW.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:26 am

@algae888 wrote:all 6z guidance came slightly north. what has my attention is this from nws...
February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 2 SnowAmt90Prcntl
February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 2 SnowProbGT4
February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 2 SnowProbGT6
those are pretty good prob for >4" of snow.
plus im hearing nnm and arw are pretty amped up. ratios are def going to be high so even .25qpf can produce 4-5" of snow.

Wow, AL, that is so different from what they actually forecast for me, maybe an inch or a little above.
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:53 am

Last night a little before 11 someone asked Bernie Rayno if Philly could really still get 8-10". He said yes it could happen if this thing shifts north a bit. NWS in Mt. Holly calls for 4" in Philly, (more than that just S and E of the city) but then drops a hint that they could upgrade later today. What I think is, everyone knows this thing could trend slightly north as the event happens (as most of these have this winter) which would put most of the Philly to NYC corridor in a 4-8" storm. But there is so much working against that (speed of storm, dry air, current southern bias of models) that nobody wants to hang their hat on that. They'd rather play it safe as a 2-4/3-5 event and then bump up totals as the storm is starting if it warrants. I think this is a wait and see storm. Yes we might only get a few hours of light to moderate snow and totals under 4". But we could find ourselves at 6 a.m. tomorrow with heavy bands working farther N and W than expected and the mets on TV telling us they are going to "bump up" their expected totals. Not a Godzilla, but still should be interesting to watch.


Last edited by billg315 on Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:59 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typo)
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:13 am

Radar over the midwest and Tennessee valley is impressive this morning. Precipitation is building nicely. Leading edge is already in W.VA and creeping to PA and MD. Since most of that leading edge probably won't reach the ground for a while, the sooner it gets here the better I say. Moisten up that atmosphere a bit.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:21 am

I really think that's a key factors will be how fast the atmosphere moistens up to get the snow to ground I've seen it before where it takes hours.
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:23 am

Pretty much,snow total numbers can be thrown around but until it gets here and we see how the radar shows up with the dry slots


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Post by Vinnydula Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:24 am

How is the storm looking compare to the modles
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:24 am

Not terribly scientific but another of those old-school rule of thumb type things. The Cincinnati area which is about the same latitude as Philly metro, is on the northern fringe of the precip and reporting light to moderate snow (light in Cinci, moderate in Forest Park just north of there). So the northern extent of the precip shield is not all virga and is coming down at some steady rates.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:33 am

@billg315 wrote:Not terribly scientific but another of those old-school rule of thumb type things. The Cincinnati area which is about the same latitude as Philly metro, is on the northern fringe of the precip and reporting light to moderate snow (light in Cinci, moderate in Forest Park just north of there). So the northern extent of the precip shield is not all virga and is coming down at some steady rates.

Great points right now I'm at 52% humidity from what I heard before you want that over 60% for snow to hit the ground so not in bad shape. Will watch it as day goes on. But my dew point is -8° which isn't so good
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:41 am

At least the snow should have no problem sticking since it's been so cold.
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:41 am

Charleston WV at 9* is reporting moderate snow (RH 73%). Lynchburg VA at 16* is reporting Light Snow with a RH 35% (is that possible?). At any rate, this encourages me that there doesn't seem to be a large area at the north fringe or front end of this storm where snow isn't reaching the ground even in very cold, dry air.
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