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February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

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February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

Post by Fededle22 Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:54 am

From Tri-State Weather....
Good Monday morning! Today will see sunshine with increasing clouds late with a high in the teens. Tonight snow arrives after midnight. Tomorrow snow will taper off west to east during the late morning to afternoon with a high in the mid 20's. Total accumulation: 3 to 6 for the southern half of NJ, eastern part of LI. 2 to 4 across NYC metro, northern NJ, south of 287. North of 287 around 1 to 3. High ratios should squeeze bonus snows. Now what could go wrong? Virga (dry air) could cut down amounts with such cold temps. A north bump when it gets here (gfs,nam,rpm) show this which would increase amounts. We shall see what the HRRR, RAP models show (That's when warned people of bust last storm). After that we remain cold. Some flurries possible Wednesday. Thursday/Friday we remain cold but dry with a high around 20. Then for Saturday we are tracking another storm. So bottom line expect a slippery Tuesday AM commute. Amounts should remain light unless this storm bumps further north which we will know better later today. have a great day and stay warm! - Adam
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Post by mmanisca Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:06 am

Just going with the trends we have been in I would expect to see lighter accumulations. 2-4 still looks good on Zlong Zisland
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:53 am

@mmanisca wrote:Just going with the trends we have been in I would expect to see lighter accumulations. 2-4 still looks good on Zlong Zisland

Yes it does.

This storm is not turning into a big deal even for DC. We'll see how we look when all 12z guidance comes out today.

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Post by Fededle22 Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:54 am

We are less than 24hrs from this storm and it seems nobody is on here. Is this going to be a non-event or is there no additional data available right now?
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Post by oldtimer Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:59 am

Did they drop WSW for DC?

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:00 am

@Fededle22 wrote:We are less than 24hrs from this storm and it seems nobody is on here. Is this going to be a non-event or is there no additional data available right now?
It's a work day for most, and really doesn't look like a big deal for most of us on this forum... and models won't run again for a while yet..

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:05 am

It's a big deal for us Cnj 6+ is what their saying in warning
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:13 am

So close to being nothing at all for north of the city. I am worried.


Last edited by snow247 on Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:19 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:18 am

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
934 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

CTZ011-012-NJZ006-104>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-171100-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
934 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW OF 3 TO
4 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE TUESDAY MORNING
RUSH HOUR.

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:26 am

Looking at the radar, still looks so south...really would be surprised if we get more than 3" here in NNJ, the unmentioned model has maybe a few inches at 10:1 but it usually overdoes precip, also has only a few inches for central jersey skins...we'll see as the storm moves closer

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:29 am

In terms of storm impact, people should not discount timing as well. A 3-6" snow that starts at 2 a.m. and continues through 9 or 10 a.m. with the heaviest snow falling between 6 and 8 a.m. is far more disruptive in my estimation than a 6-10" storm that starts at 8 p.m and ends by 4 a.m. Most people in that situation are home for the worst of the storm and the road crews have the roads largely to themselves to clear. By the time the morning rush hits most major roads are clear and there are no visibility issues. If road crews are fighting with rush hour traffic in heavy snow at 6 or 7 a.m. it is a major problem even if when all is said and done only a few inches fall.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:33 am

@billg315 wrote:In terms of storm impact, people should not discount timing as well. A 3-6" snow that starts at 2 a.m. and continues through 9 or 10 a.m. with the heaviest snow falling between 6 and 8 a.m. is far more disruptive in my estimation than a 6-10" storm that starts at 8 p.m and ends by 4 a.m. Most people in that situation are home for the worst of the storm and the road crews have the roads largely to themselves to clear. By the time the morning rush hits most major roads are clear and there are no visibility issues. If road crews are fighting with rush hour traffic in heavy snow at 6 or 7 a.m. it is a major problem even if when all is said and done only a few inches fall.

Hey guys, sorry had to take a hiatus after the last system, good point here, does not sound fun either way tomorrow morning. Impresive looking storm wish it was headed more north.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:40 am

12z RGEM and 12z GFS are in agreement of 2-3" for NYC.

We'll see what the wetter guidances' from last night are saying such as UKMET/EURO

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Post by Mathgod55 Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:42 am

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 3 Imagejpeg
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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:51 am

The GFS from 4 a.m. to 10 a.m. tomorrow is sooo close to giving us a decent burst of snow. But I guess close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades as the old saying goes. We'll see how this all develops.
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Post by oldtimer Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:52 am

Thanks Frank Gee I can't believe your crawl about temperatures mid week I thought we were at our maximum cold with the current outbreak

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:53 am

@oldtimer wrote:Thanks Frank  Gee I can't believe your crawl about temperatures mid week  I thought we were at our maximum cold with the current outbreak

It's unbelievable.

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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:00 am

GFS has light snow for the entire area Wednesday into Thursday.
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:10 am

Ugh for once this year I have to hope it's not that bad...have to go to something important tmrw at 10am..I can only hope roads are good by then.
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Post by Quietace Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:27 am

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 3 Ma3comp20

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Post by Math23x7 Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:30 am

@Quietace wrote:February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 3 Ma3comp20

Looks like you're going to win this one.

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Post by Quietace Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:32 am

@Math23x7 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 3 Ma3comp20

Looks like you're going to win this one.
Cape May/DE are the real winners. I like 3-5 for me...

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Post by Math23x7 Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:36 am

@Quietace wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 3 Ma3comp20

Looks like you're going to win this one.
Cape May/DE are the real winners. I like 3-5 for me...

Well, in terms of the forum members you're basically the winner Wink

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:42 am

Ace I'm going with 6-8 I know that may seem bullish but that's my opinion. I think we will see heavier bands along the coast
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Post by Quietace Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:47 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Ace I'm going with 6-8 I know that may seem bullish but that's my opinion. I think we will see heavier bands along the coast
Yeah that's very bullish, I think you'll have to go down to cape may to see those numbers.I hope you end up right but well see haha...

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