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Official Long Range Thread 6.0

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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:29 pm

Hour 132 yep looks like a rainstorm. Of course.
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:31 pm

So the GFS has nothing, Euro has a full washout.
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Post by jimv45 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:31 pm

yes but i trying to be positive its early things will change!

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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:32 pm

What happened? the 12z Euro yesterday looked like an all out snowstorm for the weekend, now it shows the complete opposite.
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:35 pm

Well as of right now the Sunday-Monday snow threat is gone. At least it's only Monday, still absolutely plenty of time for improvements.
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:38 pm

Highly doubt we get a GLC this weekend, there's no way we go from unbelievable cold temps to a warm rainstorm a day later.
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Post by jimv45 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:40 pm

I am starting to think we all need to go outside and start looking to the sky and start praying! god what have we done you get us excited and then boom lets us weenies enjoy one more big time snow storm! boy if my Wife and kids see this there going to start thinking therapy!

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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:41 pm

@snow247 wrote:Highly doubt we get a GLC this weekend, there's no way we go from unbelievable cold temps to a warm rainstorm a day later.
I agree the most likely solution is somewhere between the GFS and euro also cMC is South like the GFS still plenty of time to figure this one out
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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:43 pm

So from what I can tell at a quick glance, the differences in the solutions are coming from how the PV is handled. The GFS, and its ensembles are suggesting that the PV lobe progged to swing over our area later this week is relatively slow to move out and weak. The EURO, however, is quicker to swing it through and stronger. These differences result in subtle, but important changes in the NAO region. The GFS solution would keep the NAO either neutral or slightly positive, which isn't great, but it does allow the possibility of being overridden by other factors such as the +PNA/-EPO couplet to exist. On the other hand, the EURO forces a more strongly positive NAO, which allows higher heights to build into the eastern CONUS and force the storm track to our west. With the MJO progged to be exceptionally weak, this also causes model-mayhem because they don't know what to do with it, and this is likely a cause of the large spread in solutions. The GFS tracks it into phase 1 while the EURO and CMC bring it back into phase 5/6. Big differences, even if its expected to be weak.


Last edited by rb924119 on Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:53 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:45 pm

Might be something trying to form down south at hour 192.
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:47 pm

Nope, looks OTS. lol
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:49 pm

actually cmc is a nice look for sunday
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 6 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:51 pm

@algae888 wrote:actually cmc is a nice look for sunday
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 6 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25

wow, that looks nice!
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:52 pm

Heat wave coming up here Sunday. High of 36 forecast!!!!!
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:55 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Heat wave coming up here Sunday. High of 36 forecast!!!!!

Hearing that cooling centers will be open on Sunday.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:17 pm

@snow247 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Heat wave coming up here Sunday. High of 36 forecast!!!!!

Hearing that cooling centers will be open on Sunday.

lol, that was a good one!
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:30 pm

It looks like the next possible storm threat is Sunday into Monday next week. The GEFS and EPS support a stout -EPO, a neutral AO/PNA, and a +NAO. A southeast ridge is going to try and push north into our area so we'll have to see which side of the temp. gradient we'll be on. Tracks right now range from a cutter to a suppressed system. Lots of time to track this one still. I do not see the cutter being a feasible scenario right now due to the -EPO but also the split PV located southeast of the Hudson. Not sure if we'll have any northern stream energy to work with either. Still too far out.

GEFS

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 6 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_26

EPS

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 6 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_7

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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:02 pm

I know the 18z GFS is an off hour run, but I wonder if it will show the weekend storm this time. Seems like it was close to doing something with it at 12z.
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:17 pm

And so it begins storm getting it's act together around OKL/ARK hour 90.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:18 pm

Don't even bother, Snow; it's a non-event. I have it already lol

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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:22 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Don't even bother, Snow; it's a non-event. I have it already lol

Thanks lol, wxbell is extremely slow. Only out to 102.
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