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Official Long Range Thread 6.0

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Biggin23
Math23x7
SoulSingMG
essexcountypete
devsman
sroc4
skinsfan1177
billg315
mancave25
lglickman1
amugs
jimv45
rb924119
CPcantmeasuresnow
Frank_Wx
jmanley32
SNOW MAN
docstox12
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:21 pm

18z GFS = MECS
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:36 pm

18Z GFS brings back Wednesdays storm. Two runs without it, depressed the hell out of me this morning and now it's back and beautiful. Frank and Sroc talked me down this morning and lo and behold they were right.

Of course it hasn't happened yet.

Everything crossed, this is the one I want.
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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:05 pm

yea cp this might be a big one for all!

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Post by billg315 Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:18 pm

I went all-in on the Tue. to Wed. storm a couple days ago. wasn't going to give up on it quickly. Still looking pretty good to me.
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:20 pm

So the March 6-7, 1962 Mid-Atlantic storm became known as the Ash Wednesday Storm because the brunt of the storm occurred on that day (the 7th). Since the 18th is Ash Wednesday, if this storm next week hits, will meteorologists call it "Ash Wednesday II"?

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Post by billg315 Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:23 pm

I hope it's worthy of such a name
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:28 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:So the March 6-7, 1962 Mid-Atlantic storm became known as the Ash Wednesday Storm because the brunt of the storm occurred on that day (the 7th). Since the 18th is Ash Wednesday, if this storm next week hits, will meteorologists call it "Ash Wednesday II"?

Problem is Math, that there was only a dusting of snow up here in the NYC area in that March 1962 storm.The heavy snows were all down south.The storm was aligned in an east-west fashion with  a huge fetch of wind that piled up huge waves and tides and took out LBI in NJ.I know because I observed the whole thing.If we want heavy snow on Tuesday, we don't want anything like that march 1962 storm.
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:41 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:So the March 6-7, 1962 Mid-Atlantic storm became known as the Ash Wednesday Storm because the brunt of the storm occurred on that day (the 7th). Since the 18th is Ash Wednesday, if this storm next week hits, will meteorologists call it "Ash Wednesday II"?

Problem is Math, that there was only a dusting of snow up here in the NYC area in that March 1962 storm.The heavy snows were all down south.The storm was aligned in an east-west fashion with  a huge fetch of wind that piled up huge waves and tides and took out LBI in NJ.I know because I observed the whole thing.If we want heavy snow on Tuesday, we don't want anything like that march 1962 storm.

Of course we don't, but in the Mid-Atlantic states that's what they called it.

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:00 pm

Feb goes down as the coldest month on record??
CFS SAYS WE GET CLOSE.
Week 1&2
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Wk1.wk2_20150212.NAsfcT
Week3&4 Jesus it gets colder!
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Wk3.wk4_20150212.NAsfcT


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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:07 pm

00z GFS shows a Godzilla Tuesday night

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f102

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Post by Biggin23 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:08 pm

Huge storm for Mid Atlantic up through our area if this stays as is!!

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Post by Biggin23 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:10 pm

The old I-95 special....snow from SC to Canada at hour 108

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:13 pm

Okay DOCSTOX for u from OTI

DR. MILLER A IS GOING TO MAKE A HOUSE CALL!!!

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Post by MinaMak Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:42 pm

I know we're concerned about tomoro, but this storm on Tuesday into Wednesday seems ominous, hugs the coast, rides up the benchmark, appears to stay all snow. Gfs today is very impressive, more than 12 hrs of snow. Winds not as bad as tomorrow's storm, also not as cold so ratios will not be as high

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015021400&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=1139

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:47 pm

@MinaMak wrote:I know we're concerned about tomoro, but this storm on Tuesday into Wednesday seems ominous, hugs the coast, rides up the benchmark, appears to stay all snow. Gfs today is very impressive, more than 12 hrs of snow. Winds not as bad as tomorrow's storm, also not as cold so ratios will not be as high

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015021400&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=1139

Yes, it looks pretty good so far. Once this weekend system is off modeling, I think we'll begin to see more consistent solutions. Maybe even different ones than what we're seeing now. Believe it or not, this system has room to cut to our west if it wanted to. Hopefully it does not.

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Post by Guest Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:54 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@MinaMak wrote:I know we're concerned about tomoro, but this storm on Tuesday into Wednesday seems ominous, hugs the coast, rides up the benchmark, appears to stay all snow. Gfs today is very impressive, more than 12 hrs of snow. Winds not as bad as tomorrow's storm, also not as cold so ratios will not be as high

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015021400&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=1139

Yes, it looks pretty good so far. Once this weekend system is off modeling, I think we'll begin to see more consistent solutions. Maybe even different ones than what we're seeing now. Believe it or not, this system has room to cut to our west if it wanted to. Hopefully it does not.
If you use the word CUT again and I get less than 6" tomorrow I'm banning you for 7 days!! Razz Razz Razz Razz Razz

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 12:03 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@MinaMak wrote:I know we're concerned about tomoro, but this storm on Tuesday into Wednesday seems ominous, hugs the coast, rides up the benchmark, appears to stay all snow. Gfs today is very impressive, more than 12 hrs of snow. Winds not as bad as tomorrow's storm, also not as cold so ratios will not be as high

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015021400&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=1139

Yes, it looks pretty good so far. Once this weekend system is off modeling, I think we'll begin to see more consistent solutions. Maybe even different ones than what we're seeing now. Believe it or not, this system has room to cut to our west if it wanted to. Hopefully it does not.
If you use the word CUT again and I get less than 6" tomorrow I'm banning you for 7 days!! Razz Razz Razz Razz Razz

Crap Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 14, 2015 12:13 am

GEFS gorgeous and I sleep on this bring it baby and another behind it wooo hooo!!

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f102

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 14, 2015 12:18 am

Yeah I was just gonna post about this. Looks impressive. Hopefully we can keep it locked in now, but if you noticed it's starting to "trend THAT WAY again". Although I don't think that will happen this time, due to the favorable -AO and PV entirely into the Great Lakes region.

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Post by SNOW MAN Sat Feb 14, 2015 4:10 am

My extended forecast on the TWC calls for pm snow showers Tues. and am snow showers Weds.
I guess I'll have to see what happens. Hmmm Question
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:29 am

@amugs wrote:Okay DOCSTOX for u from OTI

DR. MILLER A IS GOING TO MAKE A HOUSE CALL!!!

"A" is welcomed!

"B" I'm slamming the door in his face!
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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 14, 2015 8:57 am

Looks like the GFS is starting to push the Tues/Wed. storm a bit east of what it was previous run, but def not OTS, keeps the rain/snow line away from us and gives us all snow. Still feeling good. This is my storm. I'm not going to let it go. It would never disappoint me! Rolling Eyes
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Post by jimv45 Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:47 am

to early but i think this comes more west hopefully not to far!!

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Post by jimv45 Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:12 am

It really looks good the next 10 days Tues/Wed and next weekend!

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:28 am

Folks wrote up a nice blog about my feelings going into the last two weeks of Feb only to have my computer suddenly shut off and I lost 10 minutes of a post/write up - must have been Janet hitting 0* last night and me 2.7* hmmm-.

Anyway the crux of the blog was we are going to be in the arctic freezer the next two weeks as noted by the CFS maps I posted last night. We will have an active pattern with a strong -WPO, -EPO and +PNA bu tthe PAC pattern still suggests a progressive flow. With tha being said we look to have a -AO with the arctic high pressing SE from the Arctic circle and the STJ looks to be active for us going forward - weak Nino finally - well NOAA makes that call officially. Looks to be a wave coming from India/Indian Ocean that will push the MJO into phase 1. Using the BSR (Bearing Seas Rule) that I used to call the Thanksgiving storm I see the possibility of an east coast storm the time frame of Feb 22nd thru 27th +/- 1 day. It could to our west and crush the Midwest like Chicago and Detroit but that will be determined in the next couple of weeks. This also falls into the time frame Frank has talked about the 18th - 25th.

Anyway it looks to be cold and stormy these next two weeks and hats off to Phil - that little vermin did it again.

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