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Official Long Range Thread 6.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 14, 2015 11:00 am

Phase was very close on GFS. Still have time for this one. I want to get today's system out of the way. Will have a write up and thread on Tuesday storm tomorrow.

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 14, 2015 11:21 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Phase was very close on GFS. Still have time for this one. I want to get today's system out of the way. Will have a write up and thread on Tuesday storm tomorrow.

I am REALLY liking this storm and since it is a Miller A and originates from the Gulf I believe we can be in for a MECS - if we get the 50/50 low to form a block it is definitely a MECS bordering to HECS due to the STJ pumping!! Look forward to the write up

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 14, 2015 11:34 am

Glad you're excited Mugs, hope it happens.

Please address OTI thread today. There was a Parliamentary vote this morning and only you as a moderator can make the necessary changes.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:52 pm

I honestly don't know how the solutions have been going back OTS.....The PNA ridge is one you only see in your dreams (or at least I do lmao), the AO should be in a negative state, and we have this system that is acting as a 50/50 block. HOW IS THIS IS NOT ENOUGH?!!!! lmfao

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Post by jimv45 Sat Feb 14, 2015 11:01 pm

Rb I think it will come back after this storm is done these models are having a very hard time picking things up but not giving up on this one.

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 14, 2015 11:08 pm

No way this goes ots! These models stink like a fish rotting on the docks. There is a STOUTS + PNA RIDGE AND -EPO with a -AO that will press down. This storm is going to be a fn beast and form a 50/50 block and help us out. May it cut eehh ride the coast maybe off the coast probably, ots see I don't see it with what is being modelled at this time.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 14, 2015 11:09 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Rb I think it will come back after this storm is done these models are having a very hard time picking things up but not giving up on this one.

PREACH BROTHA PREACHHH!!!! ahaha

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 14, 2015 11:10 pm

@amugs wrote:No way this goes ots! These models stink like a fish rotting on the docks. There is a STOUTS + PNA RIDGE AND -EPO with a -AO that will press down. This storm is going to be a fn beast and form a 50/50 block and help us out. May it cut eehh ride the coast maybe off the coast probably, ots see I don't see it with what is being modelled at this time.

This is exactly what I mean!! I mean, it's not the absolute most ideal setup this world has ever seen, but COME ONNNNNN!!!! That's pretty darn good storm signal if I've ever seen one lmao

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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:05 am

cmc for Tuesday. now in the morning as it is about 12 hours quicker with this system. gfs looks similar. see what happens tomorrow.
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 I_nw_g1_EST_2015021500_062
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:10 am

have not paid attention to this at all, but seems more promising for us Al yes? And Frank this is only 3 days away will you be putting a blog out tomorrow?
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:28 am

Hoping this storm buries us all region-wide with double-digit snowfall. We need it.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:09 am

EURO looks great!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:11 am

@snow247 wrote:EURO looks great!

I take it you mean for Tuesday?

Can you post it? I need it before I hit the hay.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:13 am

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f63

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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:15 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@snow247 wrote:EURO looks great!

I take it you mean for Tuesday?

Can you post it? I need it before I hit the hay.

Not sure if I can post wxbell maps but it's a quick hitting 3"-6" or 4"-8" for most, still a little bit too far SE for me and you I think, but there's still time for it to trend NW. Temperature looks very cold too, 0*-15* for us, so maybe we will get good ratios. Looks like the main part is Tuesday morning.


Last edited by snow247 on Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:21 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:17 am

Thanks Frank for the map. Curious to hear your thoughts on this one.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:12 am

Another arctic blast coming up end of this week. Could be colder than this one!!!!

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Post by Yschiff Sun Feb 15, 2015 8:21 am

Colder how cold could it get ?

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 15, 2015 8:27 am

0-10 for highs possibly negative single digits and negative single digits nyc to 20's below for low depending where you are!

Will rival the great jan 1994 cold outbreak IMO

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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:21 pm

cmc and euro have the dreaded inv. trough for Thursday.lol
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:47 pm

Next Sunday - wow by euro - southern stream again STJ pumping big time here and do not get your panties twisted by temps - you have a huge mount of cold air sitting over our heads!

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f162

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f168

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f186

HOLY FN CRIPS!!

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f192

FTW hrs 192 -198 OH BOY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f192

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f198

And here is the storm I spoke about yesterday morning Feb 2-27th time frame using the BSR - let's hope it comes to fruition but this one is a STJ not a northern vort - BIG difference and we do better at this time frame

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:51 pm

We'll see Mugs. Tuesday and upcoming weekend are main threats to watch now. Crazy cold by Thursday

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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:22 am

Wave dropping down from Canada at hour 96 on the EURO.
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:23 am

Storm forming in the south hour 114.
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Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:26 am

Looks good at hour 120.
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