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Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

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Will CPK get below 0 Thursday night?

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too I_vote_lcap44%Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too I_vote_rcap 44% 
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Total Votes : 64
 

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:11 pm

NYC did not get below 0 last night and I do not believe they will do so tonight either. I do not know the exact low temperature, but I think it was around 2-3 degrees. They have another shot of doing so Thursday night into Friday morning.

These are the 12z EURO temps by 7am Friday.

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Ecmwf_t2m_nyc_17

It looks like NYC is going to be right on the line again but this time the DDM heights are actually lower over the area than they were last night.

Winds chills are going to be equally brutal. Anywhere from -15 to -25*F.

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Ecmwf_wchill_nyc_17

Take a vote in the poll and lets we what we come out with. I am curious to see what everyone's opinion is on this. When was the last time NYC was below 0? With the heat island effect, I know it's not very common.

Also a heads up that some snow accumulations of up to an inch are possible early Thursday morning. Here is 1am Thursday. Weak arctic front coming through. Behind it follows the brutal cold.

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Ecmwf_precip_06_nyc_12

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Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Abba701 Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:17 pm

I don't care what forecasts say.No 0 for Central Park.It was 4 degrees last night in the park for like 7 or 8 hours.Proboobaly it was a wind shift more to the west that prevented temps from going further down.

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Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Abba701 Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:35 pm

I just noticed that the park actually got down to 3 last night.that makes this year the coldest reading In quite some time.

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Post by Math23x7 Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:52 pm

What's crazy is this: For February 20th (this Friday), the record low for Central Park in NYC is +7 set back in 1950. So it is much easier to set a record low then given how the late-week arctic blast will unfold.

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Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:54 pm

@Abba701 wrote:I just noticed that the park actually got down to 3 last night.that makes this year the coldest reading In quite some time.

Coldest since January 2004 when it hit 1 on 2 different days and 2 on another. Even then it couldn't crack 0.
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Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:05 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:What's crazy is this: For February 20th (this Friday), the record low for Central Park in NYC is +7 set back in 1950.  So it is much easier to set a record low then given how the late-week arctic blast will unfold.

That should be a lock to break.
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Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Abba701 Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:10 pm

NWS service has an almost 30 degree jump Saturday morning from 4 to 32.

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Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:41 pm

Don't know for sure with NYC. I think the last time Philly got below 0* was in 1994, so maybe around that same time?
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Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:43 pm

So far:

Yes: 11
No: 4

Ha!

I do think there will be more CAA to work with this go around. Should be interesting Wink

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Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Abba701 Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:57 pm

I want another poll.Who thinks the models are off and not even getting below 10 the r est of the week?

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Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:04 pm

18z GFS looks slightly more impressive with the Wednesday-Thursday snow. A lot of it looks to be west of our area though.
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Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:36 pm

@billg315 wrote:Don't know for sure with NYC. I think the last time Philly got below 0* was in 1994, so maybe around that same time?

Last time for NYC was Jan 1994 -2.

On the same morning most of the HV was -20 to -25.

One town in NJ hit -34.

Now that was a cold wave, and despite how brutal it was NYC still didn't come within 13 degrees of their all time record. It just shows how powerful the heat Island effect has become.
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Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:17 pm

The 00z GFS is pretty impressive with the snow on Thursday.
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Post by Abba701 Tue Feb 17, 2015 1:16 am

Really don't think it's happening Thursday night.Some places have 5 forecasted for that night .And it think it's really to late in Febuary to count on it.

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Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by snow247 Tue Feb 17, 2015 1:19 am

wow at the 00z EURO, weak area of snow passes through on Thursday giving us some light snow accumulations and then completely bombs out off the coast of Maine on Friday. Close call it seems. Maybe this need to be watched in case the bombing out happens earlier/closer to us.
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Post by 2004blackwrx Tue Feb 17, 2015 3:30 am

Being a homeowner and paying the heating bills makes me not a huge fan of this cold. I love the snow. I like it to be around 30 to keep the snow pack, but once your below freezing whats the point of going lower it usually just hurts our snow chances.

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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 17, 2015 5:10 am

NWS still has the snow shower activity up. Maybe we all can get an inch or two out of that.

Noticed the "0" poll in NYC closing to slightly more believing we go below.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 17, 2015 5:18 am

I'd be very surprised if it happened Doc probably to late in the season for them. I'd give it a 5% chance at best. I still remember the 2004 outbreak when they hit 1 on 2 separate nights one time before midnight and still couldn't touch 0. The last 20 years it seems CPK hitting 0 is like scientists trying to reach 0 kelvin, they can't quite get there.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 17, 2015 5:21 am

Or the inability to reach the speed of light with the electron's mass increasing exponentially, LOL!

Oh, that "heat Island" effect that screwed me in Mahwah for years turning snowstorms to slop.

Still going with the long shot it busts just below zero.Seems to be the favorite ,though, from the poll above.
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Post by Dtone Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:52 am

Just based on climo i doubt it gets below 0. Record lows below zero begin to disapear from CPK from mid Feb on. I havent checked the records now but its never happened much at this time of yr and very soon not at all. Most of those below 0 records were set long ago. Even way back then the window for sub zero temps was ending at this point of winter so for it to happen now alot of stars would have to align.

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Post by Dtone Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:56 am

..so after today the only subzero temp ever recorded in CPK was feb 24 1873 at -1.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:59 am

@Dtone wrote:..so after today the only subzero temp ever recorded in CPK was feb 24 1873 at -1.

Is that true Dtone?

That surprises me a bit.
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Post by Dtone Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:11 am

Feb stats. (no subzero temps in March)

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/Almanacs/nyc/nycfeb.pdf

If you look at the airports which don't have records going back to the 1800s you see even in Jan its rare and by Feb it just doesn't happen in recent generations, At LGA only Feb 2nd and Feb 8th (-1, -2)
To me I look at that its just not in the cards for a large coastal city in this region. That said that's how I felt about the Halloween snow a few yrs back but it happened.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:24 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:So far:

Yes: 11
No: 4

Ha!

I do think there will be more CAA to work with this go around. Should be interesting Wink

Big change in the polls Frank, No is definitely capturing the independent voters. It's 14-12 now an 8-3 swing for No since the early returns. Once the rural areas all report I think yes is toast.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:28 am

Logic and reason favor the no's here but with this fresh snowpack down there, who knows.Depends on the wind that night.Going with a seat of the pant gut feeling and voted yes,LOL!
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