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Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

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Will CPK get below 0 Thursday night?

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Post by Abba701 Thu Feb 19, 2015 2:06 pm

CP think the record of 7 gets broken tomorrow.I wouldn't lock it in.Would you?

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Post by Guest Thu Feb 19, 2015 2:08 pm

NYC Central Park gets down to 1 tonight while all suburban areas get below 0. NO WINS!!!! Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

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Post by Abba701 Thu Feb 19, 2015 2:15 pm

It's not getting down to 1.Maybe 4

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 19, 2015 2:33 pm

@Abba701 wrote:CP think the record of 7 gets broken tomorrow.I wouldn't lock it in.Would you?

Abba. Even though I campaigned for NO as stated I'm rooting for YES. I don't think they'll hit 0 but I think breaking the 7 seems very likely.

As I've stated before regarding NYC and cold temperatures you need the obvious Snow cover, clear sky's and some wind at least 10 mph preferably a little higher to carry some of the heat island effect off the island and our to sea. That is where the city differs from the suburbs and rural areas.

I think we have all 3 of those ingredients so the next thing of course is the air mass cold enough. The fact that the airmass has sunk so far south works against NYC. The winds will be more west than northwest and will slightly modify. Our best route for our coldest air masses is right down from central Ontario where the boundary barely makes it to the Carolina's.

The key period will be similar to several days ago, does the temperature level off after 10 pm. It hit 4 last time and stayed there for virtually 10 hours briefly hitting 3 at one point. The same thing happened in 2004 both times it hit 1. I'd also like to see how quickly it starts dropping a couple hours before sunset. I did notice a drop from 21 to 19 the last hour so between 3 and 7 they would need to drop to single digits to have an outside shot at 0.

I would say they bottom out at 4 so yes I believe the record will be broken but no 0, not happening.

Hope I'm wrong.

Your thoughts?
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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 19, 2015 2:38 pm

There appears to be cloud cover and that would hamper the attempt below zero in NYC, but I think they break the 7 degree record easily.Still going with my gut it goes below zero there tonight or tomorrow night.

Looks like Id get good odds from the look of the yes/no board right now, maybe 5 or 6 to 1.
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Post by Analog96 Thu Feb 19, 2015 3:28 pm

Yeah Central Park is a lock to break the record low.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 19, 2015 4:08 pm

I concur CP unless the Zookeeper is taking the temperature ??

Going to be mighty cold tomorrow morning. We have another artic blast coming in next week after the storm- do not know yet if it will rival this one but ............

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 19, 2015 4:11 pm

Is their still a chance of light snow tonight I thought tonight had a better chance.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 19, 2015 4:14 pm

I thought I share this it should probably be in the banter but it does have to do with the cold so anyway our boss at work is having us start at 7am instead of 6am tomorrow due to the cold and immediately I laughed to myself and said an hour difference isn't going to make any difference at all I was then told by the supervisor well its because the Sun will be up and I said so its still going to be ridicoulsy cold lol
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Post by ClimateControl Thu Feb 19, 2015 4:20 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I thought I share this it should probably be in the banter but it does have to do with the cold so anyway our boss at work is having us start at 7am instead of 6am tomorrow due to the cold and immediately I laughed to myself and said an hour difference isn't going to make any difference at all I was then told by the supervisor well its because the Sun will be up and I said so its still going to be ridicoulsy cold lol

Sunrise is at 6:50 AM tomorrow in Newark, NJ
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Post by Dtone Thu Feb 19, 2015 6:03 pm

I think CPK gets down something between 2 - 5*. Places like Roanoke, VA to definetly parts of KY will be below zero but not within nyc limits here.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 19, 2015 6:08 pm

It's more likely it drops a degree from 6am to 7am then rises by 7am. Either way you wouldn't notoce the difference.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 19, 2015 6:12 pm

After an early 11-4 lead, YES fades down the stretch to a 36-28 defeat to NO.

Outscored 32-17 in crunch time, it was a very lackluster, poor performance by YES. Heads will roll.
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Post by Dtone Thu Feb 19, 2015 6:19 pm

lol Its not over yet, No is the heavy favorite but you don't play the game on paper.

rec low 7* is going down and Friday night may break a record too.
This is a cold Feb.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:09 pm

The outer boroughs have spoken and this one is now over barely before it started. 15 degrees at 7PM in CPK.

That's not what they needed to get to 0.

The models never factor in the heat Island effect of the big cities, especially a city like NYC.

Hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Feb 20, 2015 3:44 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Vinnydula Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:11 pm

12 here in LGA
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:12 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The outer boroughs have spoken and this one is now over barely before it started. 15 degrees at 7PM in CPK. That's not what they needed to get to 0, that's now out of reach.

I put the chances of them breaking the record at 50-50, I'm thinking more like 8 will be the bottom.

The models never factor in the heat Island effect of the big cities, especially a city like NYC.

Hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.

Tomorow night has a better chance.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:14 pm

Ha

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:16 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The outer boroughs have spoken and this one is now over barely before it started. 15 degrees at 7PM in CPK. That's not what they needed to get to 0, that's now out of reach.

I put the chances of them breaking the record at 50-50, I'm thinking more like 8 will be the bottom.

The models never factor in the heat Island effect of the big cities, especially a city like NYC.

Hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.

Tomorow night has a better chance.

Maybe, if the clouds don't move in after midnight. I think if it's clear and calm tomorrow night we'll have a lot of suburbs NWNJ NEPA, NWCT, and the HV -10 to -15.

This late in February that's impressive.
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Post by snow247 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:26 pm

5* here, temp dropping fast.
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:28 pm

7* and win dis kicking up big time here.

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Post by Taffy Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:38 pm

Clear
9.5 °F
Feels Like -7 °F
N15.0
Wind from WSW
Gusts 15.0 mph

Winds are really picking up here and temps falling fast. My windows are rattling...that's my indicator for high winds.  I don't need no fancy shmancy gadget to tell me which way the wind blows Razz
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:47 pm

2.8

Tomorrow will be the 7th sub zero morning this February.

I'm impressed.

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Post by Abba701 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:56 pm

11 pm - 10 degrees.CP can it drop another 4 degrees ?

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Post by Abba701 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:57 pm

My prediction is either a tie or misses by a degree or so.

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