Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

With a closed off H5 center N&W and energy rounding off the base of the trough, there may be coastal enhancement, or an IVT, Thursday morning.

What's the timeframe on this? Thursday morning or Thursday into Friday?

snowday111 wrote:What's the timeframe on this? Thursday morning or Thursday into Friday?

10pm Wednesday through 10am Thursday, then again Thursday night. May come in 2 rounds.

Frank_Wx wrote:

snowday111 wrote:What's the timeframe on this? Thursday morning or Thursday into Friday?

10pm Wednesday through 10am Thursday, then again Thursday night. May come in 2 rounds.

Thanks Frank!!

Frank I think the 1-3" you have scrolling on top is right on, but I think we could see as much as 4"-6" out on the eastern half of LI from late Wed through early Friday. Def an IVT type look to the surface maps. Total QPF amts are anywhere from 0.05"-0.20" depending on the model and the run. With surface temps in the teens and low twenties, and 850's forecasted between -15 and -20 ratios are going to be 30:1 at least; maybe slight higher if the winds remains calm. At 30:1 ratios 0.05-0.20" QPF would be 1.5-6.0" 6" may be ambitious but 4-5" is def attainable IMO.

Am I hearing coastal areas again have a good chance with this

skinsfan1177 wrote:Am I hearing coastal areas again have a good chance with this

Possibly Skins - replay of 2014??

sroc4 wrote:Frank I think the 1-3" you have scrolling on top is right on, but I think we could see as much as 4"-6" out on the eastern half of LI from late Wed through early Friday.  Def an IVT type look to the surface maps.  Total QPF amts are anywhere from 0.05"-0.20" depending on the model and the run.  With surface temps in the teens and low twenties, and 850's forecasted between -15 and -20 ratios are going to be 30:1 at least; maybe slight higher if the winds remains calm.  At 30:1 ratios 0.05-0.20" QPF would be 1.5-6.0"  6" may be ambitious but 4-5" is def attainable IMO.

I'm not sure I've seen any model showing above .10" qpf

Looks like another IVT tomorrow night into Thus. morning. Still only expecting 1-3". Heres 00z RGEM

It's not going to happen frank.It was the middle of January maybe.But it's just not going to happen below 0 in central park.Trust me

It's intersetng national weather service says 2 but with mostly cloudy skies.Thats not possible

interesting esp for our li friends
LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT TONIGHT. MEAN OF SREF/NAM/GFS SNOW IN BUFKIT IS GENERALLY
RIGHT AROUND TO JUST OVER AN INCH. HOWEVER SOME SREF MEMBERS SHOW
3-5 INCHES AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS OVER THE TRI-STATE - MAINLY E.
GIVEN BAND MIGHT WEAKEN GOING OVER THE POCONOS AND THEN REFORM
OVER THE W PART OF THE AREA - HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST DO MAKE SOME
SENSE.

FOR NOW FORECASTING AROUND AN INCH FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD-SCT 3-5
INCH BURSTS OF SNOW DEPENDING ON EXACT INTENSITY OF LINE. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING EXPECTED AFTER RUSH HOUR WILL NOT ADDRESS
THREAT WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW APPEARS
BEST TO HANDLE WITH AN SPS. WILL ALSO MENTION IN HWO.

USED A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

NEXT WRINKLE IN FORECAST IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF CAPE COD AND PASSING OF
UPPER TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PUSHING IN ALOFT -
WILL HAVE AT LEAST CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES UP THROUGH
AROUND 700 HPA THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE KEPT THINGS SNOW SHOWERS
FOR NOW. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW ON THURSDAY MAINLY FROM LONG ISLAND AND CT ON TOP OF WHATEVER
IS RECEIVED TONIGHT.

Frank_Wx wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Frank I think the 1-3" you have scrolling on top is right on, but I think we could see as much as 4"-6" out on the eastern half of LI from late Wed through early Friday.  Def an IVT type look to the surface maps.  Total QPF amts are anywhere from 0.05"-0.20" depending on the model and the run.  With surface temps in the teens and low twenties, and 850's forecasted between -15 and -20 ratios are going to be 30:1 at least; maybe slight higher if the winds remains calm.  At 30:1 ratios 0.05-0.20" QPF would be 1.5-6.0"  6" may be ambitious but 4-5" is def attainable IMO.

I'm not sure I've seen any model showing above .10" qpf

You are absolutely right about QPF totals, but VV over LI look pretty good at times esp on Thursday as the IVT axis rotates through, and Im not sure global models will pick up on those finer details, and the S/R models are not quite in their wheel house yet.  Again 1-3" total Wed night through early Friday is more realistic, however, eastern half of LI still may see isolated higher amts if a few short lived bursts, ie: 1-3hrs worth, of heavy high ratio snow bursts occur.  Im going out on a limb and say 3-6" isolated amts from say Sagtikos/Sunken Meadow Pkway on east.  Prob wont happen, but as Al pointed out in the NWS discussion above the potential exists.

Still looking at high ratio snow showers later tonight into the morning. There may be another round Thursday night along the coastal plain, which I think is what Doc is talking about when he says 3+ amounts are possible there. For the most part, coating to 2 or 3 inches. Not a big deal.

Got to -1 today.

I had a beautiful ice crystal patterns on my car this morning, I will post pics when I get a chance, awesome patters and big.

Possible school delays tomorrow?

snow247 wrote:Possible school delays tomorrow?

Doubtful. Unless the IVT sets up over your area and does not move. Can't rely on that though

Just came back indoors and voted 'yes.' Feels like the temp is dropping like a rock!

"No" is actually in the lead by 2 votes.

Friday night:



Saturday night:



It's going to be close

latest short range models including nam and hrrr have area completely dry with arctic front this evening

Getting some snow here tonight in NEVT. Will be back on the Island from Saturday through Tuesday March 3rd for mid winter break. Hopefully i see a coastal!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS EXTENDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALEDONIA...ESSEX AND ORLEANS
COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN VERMONT...FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE ADVISORY AREA THIS
EVENING AND BECOME STEADIER OVERNIGHT BEFORE ABATING IN
INTENSITY ON THURSDAY.

Unreal, checkout the radar in Southwestern Maine (Biddeford area)...

That inverted trough just pops snow right out of thin air, radar just blew up there. Won't be surprised if someone in that neck of the woods gets 12+ out of this.

NWS Burlington, Vermont


NWS Grey, Maine

SoulSingMG wrote:Unreal, checkout the radar in Southwestern Maine (Biddeford area)...

That inverted trough just pops snow right out of thin air, radar just blew up there. Won't be surprised if someone in that neck of the woods gets 12+ out of this.

Snow squalls in PA

This winter summed up in one GFS frame: