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Long Range Thread 7.0

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 18, 2015 12:17 pm

12z GFS does not appear to have much around 25/26th surface wise, something around 27th though but CMC Def supports a coastal granted too far east but this is 7 days away.

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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 18, 2015 12:17 pm

well it's pretty much a decent model agreement that sunday is going to be rain the question is how much and how much front end snow did we get. CMC has very intense low passing near Detroit. so I guess we're going to have very strong warm air advection with this system. also to note CMC has a miller b and the Miller a for next week. GFS has a miller a also late next week. still a few more storm chances left this winter
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 18, 2015 12:23 pm

@algae888 wrote:well  it's pretty much a decent model agreement that sunday is going to be rain the question is how much and how much front end snow did we get. CMC has very intense low passing near Detroit. so I guess we're going to have very strong warm air advection with this system. also to note CMC has a miller b and the Miller a for next week. GFS has a miller a also late next week. still a few more storm chances left this winter

I wouldn't mind washing away some of the grime we have here Al, then thump on 25/26th with a big storm, maybe bring enough to have what we had a few weeks ago and push us well over average : ) Wishful thinking lol
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Post by Snow88 Wed Feb 18, 2015 12:48 pm

12z GEFS are hinting at a coastal storm for next week. GGEM also. Fun times ahead. Pattern doesn't look like it wants to change anytime soon.
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Post by snow247 Wed Feb 18, 2015 1:16 pm

I wouldn't mind some rain to wash away the salt on the road and the cars. Not a lot though.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 18, 2015 1:58 pm

I just got a car wash, had too so much salt and stuff on my car not good for it. I have a feeling we see a minimum for a inch of rain. Sucks but if we get a blockbuster (no idea at this time) it will more than make up for it. Those icebergs piles though will take a while to melt, won't happen from some rain.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 18, 2015 1:59 pm

@Snow88 wrote:12z GEFS are hinting at a coastal storm for next week. GGEM also. Fun times ahead. Pattern doesn't look like it wants to change anytime soon.

And then the EURO came out...lol

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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 18, 2015 2:00 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:12z GFS op is is still a torch lol

I kind of hope this trends even more west so we are warm sectored and avoid the brunt of the rain.
that's what euro is showing. about .5qpf for i95. some of that is front end snow. would take that in a heartbeat.
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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 18, 2015 2:01 pm

a few inches of snow dry slot then rain when front comes through. temps around 50 for a few hours. best we can expect
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 18, 2015 2:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:12z GEFS are hinting at a coastal storm for next week. GGEM also. Fun times ahead. Pattern doesn't look like it wants to change anytime soon.

And then the EURO came out...lol

that was just a mess, but it still shows a coastal actually kinda more than one, first ots, second is where ggem is but weak, this being next week.
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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 18, 2015 4:02 pm

nws going with a cold solution for my area for weekend storm. have snow sat aft and night and rain and snow on sunday and sunday night
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Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 18, 2015 4:07 pm

@algae888 wrote:nws going with a cold solution for my area for weekend storm. have snow sat aft and night and rain and snow on sunday and sunday night

Al, you read my mind, was just going to post that NWS.Their solution for me up here in the HV is a cold one, snow Sat and Sat night, mix on Sunday, ending as snow Sunday night.Will be happy for 2 or 3.
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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 18, 2015 4:17 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:nws going with a cold solution for my area for weekend storm. have snow sat aft and night and rain and snow on sunday and sunday night

Al, you read my mind, was just going to post that NWS.Their solution for me up here in the HV is a cold one, snow Sat and Sat night, mix on Sunday, ending as snow Sunday night.Will be happy for 2 or 3.
doc I wonder what model they are looking at. every one has the 850's north of me by 9z sunday. maybe they are seeing something different. twc has fzr rain turning to rain which is what models are showing but then again it's just guidance and not a forecast. imo I see temps having a hard time getting above freezing for many n/w suburbs  and also see this moving in quicker so snow on the front end still is likely for me and points north. we shall see. kinda glad nws didn't go model hugging with this yet. going to be very cold sat. morning and take some time to push cold out.
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 18, 2015 5:50 pm

18z GFS has some solid backend snows for entire area this weekend...
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Post by Guest Wed Feb 18, 2015 6:21 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:nws going with a cold solution for my area for weekend storm. have snow sat aft and night and rain and snow on sunday and sunday night

Al, you read my mind, was just going to post that NWS.Their solution for me up here in the HV is a cold one, snow Sat and Sat night, mix on Sunday, ending as snow Sunday night.Will be happy for 2 or 3.

Hey Doc.  I feel bad for you.  For about the 20th time this winter you look to get a real good storm only to have the models change and then you have to "hope" for 2 to 3 inches.. 😢

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Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 18, 2015 7:38 pm

Jimmy, yeah, you've got that right, but from where I used to live, Mahwah NJ, which has about 30 inches thuis season, my new Hudson Valley NY home has had over 53, so I'm not complaining.

Had a cigar in he warm sun today and started thinking about trout season, don't know why.

Still hoping this NWS cold solution here pans out but too early to tell.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:53 pm

An early night for me tonight with updates to come tomorrow morning. The story the new few days will be the cold, and of course, whether or not NYC can get below 0 degrees. If it happens it's likely to occur Friday night, when 850's are at their coldest. So far, the poll in the other thread has "no" winning by a couple of votes. Clearly CP has influenced you all Smile

Looking ahead, Saturday afternoon into Sunday still looks like rain to me for the immediate coast. The threat of snow or ice still exists for those N&W of NYC. If the SLP can track further east that will help pull in more cold air. I'll keep you all posted. NYC Metro, expect at least .50-1.00 inches of rain with temps in the 40's,

Beyond this weekend, my attention is on the end of next week. With ridging returning in the Pacific and a PV back over eastern Canada, we'll have to see if northern stream energy can phase into the STJ. Ensembles are showing a pretty large storm signal, though that can change quickly this weekend. Some of the Operationals insist on the Pacific breaking down too quickly. With the MJO back in the COD, that's certainly possible too. Below are the GEFS and they show nicely the mean eastern trough with ridging over the western US and EPO region.

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 5 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_32

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Post by aiannone Wed Feb 18, 2015 9:43 pm

From HPC
RELIED ON THE FASTER, FLATTER GUIDANCE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WITH DEFERENCE TO THE PRIMACY OF COLD AIR. MUCH AS THE MODELS THIS TIME LAST WEEK WERE WONT TO LIFT THE CURTAIN OF ARCTIC AIR IN THE EAST TO ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO PASS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE TIME FRAME VERIFYING YESTERDAY AND TODAY--WITH A FLATTER, COLDER WAVE THE REALITY--BELIEVE THAT A SIMILAR ISSUE EXISTS FOR THE WAVE CROSSING THE EAST THIS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:31 pm

both nam and gfs have a front end 2-4" snow followed by light rain. gfs has about .5-.75qpf. very weak system 1016mb low. its more like a swfe than low pressure cutter. other board throwing out 2/22/08 which was supposed to be 2-4" of snow turning to rain. we ended up with 6" of snow then drizzle. lets see what the international models say.
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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:32 pm

oh and temps on gfs only make it to upper 30's on sunday
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Post by Vinnydula Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:36 pm

Wouldn't mind alittle rain would be nice to get a free car wash
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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:44 pm

cmc caves to gfs. no more 990mb low. now 1008 still cuts but gives us a nice front end dump of snow like gfs and nam. getting interesting.
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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:47 pm

ukie also flatter has snow moving in at hr 72. cmc has 1008 mb low weakening as it moves n/e just as most systems have this winter.
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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:59 pm

ukie also 2-4" of snow sat sat night. maybe this one trends in our favor.
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:04 am

2m temps 1pm sunday
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