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Long Range Thread 7.0

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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:17 am

Don't think those temps up here will put much of a dent in this frozen glacier I've got.Like some of the trends you mention, AL.We are so due around our areas for a surprise that turns out good.We'll see.
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:21 am

this is mostly snow for you cp and doc
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 I_nw_g1_EST_2015021900_075
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 I_nw_g1_EST_2015021900_077
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 I_nw_g1_EST_2015021900_079
say 6-8 hrs snow and ice 4-6 hrs rain. net gain for you guys
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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:44 am

Al, yes, if the rain is light.These are the situations that favor the HV.
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 2:10 am

add euro to the cave. its the coldest of them all. not sure on snow amounts but 850s are below 0* throughout most of the storm. im hearing it very weak. wow what a diff. from this afternoons runs. all hail the gfs.
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 2:15 am

cmc snow map and its the warmest model of all
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 Gem_asnow_us_18
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 19, 2015 4:40 am

Nice analysis Al. You leave me some optimism for this weekends event. If the HV could get 3-6 with a little rain or drizzle at the end it would be a big improvement over what the models showed 24 hours ago. Also the big warmup accuweather was showing yesterday for days 10-15 has now changed to highs for that period in the mid to upper 30's. Of course that could change this afternoon but for now I like the trends.
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:00 am

snowstorm on the 6z nam..... for areas north and west of city. no mixing issues there
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:11 am

problem now is qpf is much lighter
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 Nam_namer_084_precip_ptot
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 Nam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip
6z
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 Nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip
00z
850s what a difference
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:15 am

This one has been all over the place, so what else is new this winter.
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:19 am

gfs close to nam a little warmer but gives us more snow. things are trending great for us a tick more and all snow on gfs
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 Gfs_asnow_us_16
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:22 am

look at 850s at 7am sunday first 6z and then yesterdays 12z
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 Gfs_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip
6z
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 Gfs_namer_096_850_temp_mslp_precip
12z
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:29 am

two things have changed from what I see. first the low over eastern Canada is moving out quicker allowing hp over atlantic to move out faster. makes sense in this progressive pattern we are in without any blocking. i mentioned this yesterday. 2nd hp behind low is now pressing on this low and forcing it more south and then east so the gap between the two hp are much further east. so instead of low tracking over western ohio its now tracking almost over us and much weaker. I believe that the two hp are also weakening the system so it is much flatter than yesterday.
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:32 am

still need a tick more east and entire area could see 3-6" snow. on the down side qpf looks like it will be much lighter than what models were showing yesterday but who cares didn't want 1-2" of rain.
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:35 am

cp and doc odds now favor all snow for your area. 2-4 or 3-6 inch looks reasonable. now we have to hope it doesn't trend to far east and we miss out on the heavy precip. Kentucky west Virginia and western n/c and Virginia are going to get a lot of snow from this.
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:38 am

and theres the miller b that is going to rock you now who again....
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 Gfs_namer_153_850_temp_mslp_precip
also li may get in on this one
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:48 am

look at temps on sunday have dropped about 15* from yesterdays runs...
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 Gfs_T2m_us_15
gfs
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 Namconus_T2m_us_29
nam
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 Gfs_T2m_us_21
00z wens
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:54 am

cmc has a miler a for next wens. gfs miller b...
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25
off to bed see u at 12z
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:58 am

nws first call snow map for sat-sun..
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 StormTotalSnowFcst
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 StormTotalIceFcst
ice
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 6 StormTotalQPFFcst
qpf. I think this will come down today prob .5 this is before 6z models
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 6:08 am

nws disco... interesting
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO GROW IN LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A 700-500 HPA TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTH...WILL SEE TRANSITION FROM SNOW AT
THE START LATE SATURDAY...TO A WINTRY MIX SATURDAY NIGHT TO ALL
WAY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

ITEMS STILL IN QUESTION INCLUDE: 1) THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. 2) THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY
MIX...THEN FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. 3) THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE START OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT SEEMS LIKE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
SEE SOME SNOW DEVELOP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE EASTERN
HALF LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

AS FOR THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN...IT WOULD SEEM THAT SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE
OVER DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND ELSEWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONE FACTOR THAT COULD EXPAND THE TIME FRAME OF FREEZING RAIN IS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL FRONT. THIS HAS OCCURRED THE PAST
COUPLE OF TIMES A LOW HAS TRACKED TO THE WEST...AND IS SHOWN
EXPLICITLY IN THE 00Z NAM WITH ITS WIND FIELD AT 6Z SUNDAY. GIVEN
THAT HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT THE DAMMING INDUCED BY THE COASTAL
FRONT OFTEN LASTS UP TO SEVERAL HOURS LATER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE
MODELS...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TO REFLECT THIS. HOWEVER...HOW THE
COASTAL FRONT ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT WILL NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL WITHIN
12 HOURS OR SOONER BEFORE THE EVENT...AND MIGHT NOT BE FULLY
REALIZED UNTIL THE EVENT IS UNDERWAY
. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FAIRLY
RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY MORNING FROM SE TO NW AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S FOR ALL BUT A FEW AREAS ACROSS
NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES...AND EVEN THERE IT WILL GET INTO THE
UPPER 30S. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN
THE ADVISORY LEVEL RANGE ACROSS N ZONES AND SUB-ADVISORY RANGE
ACROSS S ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCRETION ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...IF TRENDS
HOLD THEN ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED CWA WIDE. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE AREA MOST LIKELY WILL STAY BELOW WARNING LEVELS OF
SNOW (6 INCHES) AND ICE (1/2 INCH).
again this is before 6z runs so track of low could be well east of current forecast
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 19, 2015 6:11 am

nws disco for next weeks storm...
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS A COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO FORM NEAR
THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK NE TO THE S/E OF
LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN
TRACK...WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEAN FARTHEST OUT TO SEA - WITH LITTLE OR
NO IMPACT TO THE AREA...AND THE CMC AND ECMWF CLOSER TO THE COAST.
FOR NOW ALL SOLUTIONS FAVOR ONLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE
ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS TO THE W TO BRING A WINTRY MIX INTO PLAY FOR
COASTAL AREAS. GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON SNOW
FALL AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 6:52 am

Thanks for the overnight posts Al.

Saturday system trended colder last night. We'll see if this trend holds merit.

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Post by Yschiff Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:01 am

Frank the snow on the ground won't help the temps stay cool?

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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:13 am

Al, you were on the job last night, great work, man! You are in the top five of analysts here on the board.Enjoyed reading all of your work, excellent!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:31 am

Agreed Doc.  The big 5

Frank, Sroc, Al, Rb and drum roll please...........................................................

For his first appearance in the top 5 is

Mugs

Honorable mention to NJ, Ace, Janet and Alex who haven't posted much lately.

Rising with a bullet Nutley and Soul

Many others too numerous too mention.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:46 am; edited 2 times in total
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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:38 am

We have the best group of amateur Mets around, you bet!

NWS has us for 2 to 4 front end, CP.Hope for colder trends.Whatever, temps drop for next week after Sunday and now I see mention of snow Tues-Weds next week as Al's post above showed.

The hits keep coming as they use to say on old WMCA Radio in the 60's, LOL!
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