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Long Range Thread 7.0

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Post by RJB8525 February 17th 2015, 12:31 pm

@oldtimer wrote:TWC   Sat 32* 60% snow  Sun 43* 60% rain  

Sat:36* 70% of snow

Sat night: 30* 90% snow to rain, 1-3" so far for me
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Post by Frank_Wx February 17th 2015, 12:38 pm

The less digging that occurs in the SW CONUS from that vort, the colder our storm will be on the coast this weekend.

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Post by oldtimer February 17th 2015, 12:43 pm

Thanks Frank Sometimes digging is good but in this case not so much?

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Post by amugs February 17th 2015, 12:47 pm

Correct old timer. This system is very similar to the one we had a couple of weeks ago where the r/s line set up at rt 80 - north of the city did great and south not so great. A lot of time to work out the details with this one

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Post by oldtimer February 17th 2015, 12:50 pm

Thanks lots Mugs That help me to understand

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Post by Frank_Wx February 17th 2015, 1:01 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Thanks Frank   Sometimes digging is good but in this case not so much?

Yes. This time we are talking about digging on the west coast instead of the east. A potent piece of upper energy is going to undercut the -EPO ridge and dig into the southwest U.S. As it does so, heights rise through the central and eastern part of the country with a developing surface low near the southeast. The storm is going to ride the baroclinic zone but where that zone sets up is to be determined. Right now, I am thinking a good front-end thump of snow for most. The timing of the changeover to rain or ice, if there is one, is what I will be trying to forecast in the coming days.

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Post by Frank_Wx February 17th 2015, 1:21 pm

12z EURO by Saturday night

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f111

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f114

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f117

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f123


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Post by Frank_Wx February 17th 2015, 1:24 pm

EURO does not nearly dig as much as the GFS in the SW CONUS so I am surprised it raises heights this much ahead of the SLP. I can understand why the GFS turned warm...not the EURO.

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Post by jimv45 February 17th 2015, 1:26 pm

frank right now it could be like what we saw a few weeks ago! do you see this getting colder?

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Post by Frank_Wx February 17th 2015, 1:26 pm

@jimv45 wrote:frank right now it could be like what we saw a few weeks ago! do you see this getting colder?

It depends on how amplified the trough in the west will be.

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Post by jimv45 February 17th 2015, 1:29 pm

yea just can't see this being plain rain after the temps we are going through afraid of some icing after a decent front end snow will see!

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Post by jmanley32 February 17th 2015, 4:01 pm

This looks interesting, the Euro really strings this out for a extended period, wether or not its warm is the question, hopefully this can be ironed out but with how the models have even handled well until the short range I am not counting on a solution soon.
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Post by sroc4 February 17th 2015, 4:55 pm

The problem I am seeing for the coast for the weekend is a big HP due east of Hatterus.  You might even call it a Burmuda High, but technically its north of Burmuda. Going to be a very warm air source.  The entire Coastal plain will prob start as snow change to slop and rain, then end as snow.  Still need to iron out kinks though.  We will have to see how far south the front gets and how hard it is to scour out the cold.  Def ice threat with this system for someone as well.  Prob NW of NYC but coastal sections may see a brief period of ice.  

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Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_18  

GFS
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_18

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Post by SoulSingMG February 17th 2015, 5:16 pm

@sroc4 wrote:The problem I am seeing for the coast for the weekend is a big HP due east of Hatterus.  You might even call it a Burmuda High, but technically its north of Burmuda. Going to be a very warm air source.  The entire Coastal plain will prob start as snow change to slop and rain, then end as snow.  Still need to iron out kinks though.  We will have to see how far south the front gets and how hard it is to scour out the cold.  Def ice threat with this system for someone as well.  Prob NW of NYC but coastal sections may see a brief period of ice.  

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Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_18  

GFS
Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_18

So now that we have the blocking, it's in the wrong place?! I'm gonna looooooose it lol
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Post by RJB8525 February 17th 2015, 5:39 pm

slop fest 2015
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Post by amugs February 17th 2015, 5:42 pm

Still a lot of time here peeps
-epo, +pna, STJ, SE ridge - good things here - need that HP over Canada to slide east somewhat BUT remember that the -EPO and +PNA will be doing the dirty work here. I just wish this were Sun into Mon cause the cold air source would be in place - can some one release teh butterflies and send them west to slow this down by 24 hours?

I am not going to get crazy until Thusrday 12Z runs - we have that strong squall arctic front swinging through here Wed night into Thursday which will squeeze the crap out of the atmosphere and could easily bring us 2" and some spots 3" with very high snow ratios again.

Soul really not a block like a -NAO, that happens up by Greenland and Scandinavian. The HP is more of a SE ridge which is what we saw in 93-94 that helped us have some major snowfalls with said events/storms like this one coming in. N&W tend to do better BUT if it sets up further east then the coast is NOT toast. As Frank said the baroclonic zone is crucial to this storm - lets hope it sets up over Atlantic County NJ.

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Post by SoulSingMG February 17th 2015, 5:50 pm

@amugs wrote:Still a lot of time here peeps
-epo, +pna, STJ, SE ridge - good things here - need that HP over Canada to slide east somewhat BUT remember that the -EPO and +PNA will be doing the dirty work here.  I just wish this were Sun into Mon cause the cold air source would be in place - can some one release teh butterflies and send them west to slow this down by 24 hours?

I am not going to get crazy until Thusrday 12Z runs - we have that strong squall arctic front swinging through here Wed night into Thursday which will squeeze the crap out of the atmosphere and could easily bring us 2" and some spots 3" with very high snow ratios again.

Soul really not a block like a -NAO, that happens up by Greenland and Scandinavian. The HP is more of a SE ridge which is what we saw in 93-94 that helped us have some major snowfalls with said events/storms like this one coming in. N&W tend to do better BUT if it sets up further east then the coast is NOT toast. As Frank said the baroclonic zone is crucial to this storm - lets hope it sets up over Atlantic County NJ.

Great post. Solid points. Thanks Mugs.
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Post by Guest February 17th 2015, 7:17 pm

I rooted for you guys to get a lot from the last storm. Current models have me getting a fair amount this time so I'm being selfish for the weekend system.

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Post by snow247 February 17th 2015, 7:50 pm

At the moment this weekend system looks almost exactly like the one from February 2nd correct?

Nice, I got 9 or 10 inches with that and barely any sleet/freezing rain.
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Post by amugs February 17th 2015, 8:37 pm

@snow247 wrote:At the moment this weekend system looks almost exactly like the one from February 2nd correct?

Nice, I got 9 or 10 inches with that and barely any sleet/freezing rain.

Could very well be.
what happens at this stage is the slp coming from the sw willMississippi and hopefully not cut and make a run to the ocean. Thus storm is between two stout hp over the great lakes, go figure our luck the storm could not be 6 hours later or 24 hra.

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Post by Frank_Wx February 17th 2015, 8:59 pm

As of now I'm forecasting snow to rain Saturday night into Sunday. No ice. This is likely to change.

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Post by aiannone February 17th 2015, 9:16 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:As of now I'm forecasting snow to rain Saturday night into Sunday. No ice. This is likely to change.

Been so busy with course work and haven't been able to track the weather much unfortunately. I am coming home for a week break this Saturday and I am seeing rain for Sunday?! I don't want the snowpack at home to melt! Does it look like enough to melt everything?
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Post by Frank_Wx February 17th 2015, 9:23 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:As of now I'm forecasting snow to rain Saturday night into Sunday. No ice. This is likely to change.

Been so busy with course work and haven't been able to track the weather much unfortunately. I am coming home for a week break this Saturday and I am seeing rain for Sunday?! I don't want the snowpack at home to melt! Does it look like enough to melt everything?

If there's no front end thump and it's all rain, yea, it could be 1-2" of rain. With temps. in the 40's.

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Post by Frank_Wx February 17th 2015, 11:07 pm

Way too much energy undercutting the EPO ridge on the GFS. -PNA enhances the SE Ridge too much. Quick front end thump to rain.

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Post by rb924119 February 17th 2015, 11:21 pm

Yeah Frank, I don't expect much good to come of this storm, unfortunately :/

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