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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:15 am

@Mathgod55 wrote:After mid-March the probability of significant accumulating snow diminishes greatly.

Not in the HV, NEPA and NWNJ, April 1 there, plus I've seen numerous 5-10 inch storms in April in my 30+ years here, and a few over a foot.

NYC, LI, CNJ and  NJ and CT coast and south true.
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Post by Artechmetals Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:37 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:I think the people who could possibly see accumulating snow from this will be N&W of NYC, including NEPA. Everyone else, I feel this will be mainly rain. Maybe a very brief period of snow/freezing rain to start. 1-2" of rain, too. Could be flood advisories issued out.



Morning Frank , how far N&W of nyc are you thinking ?
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:37 am

@Artechmetals wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I think the people who could possibly see accumulating snow from this will be N&W of NYC, including NEPA. Everyone else, I feel this will be mainly rain. Maybe a very brief period of snow/freezing rain to start. 1-2" of rain, too. Could be flood advisories issued out.



Morning Frank , how far N&W of nyc are you thinking ?

Hudson Valley.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:39 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:The 25th-26th time frame needs to be watched for possible Godzilla. I like the set-up.

I noted that a LP was coming around that time frame its off shore at this time but so far out I am sure this will change.  How much more time do you think we have before we run out of time for snow storms?

March 10th is always my date of "winter cancel" for our area. As CP said, that extends to April 1st for other areas. Not saying no snow is possible after March 10th, but the probability greatly diminishes and with the sun angle the way it is any snow would rapidly melt in the coming day anyway.

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Post by Artechmetals Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:39 am

Man seems like this season it's always a miss by me Sad
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Post by Math23x7 Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:46 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Mathgod55 wrote:After mid-March the probability of significant accumulating snow diminishes greatly.

Not in the HV, NEPA and NWNJ, April 1 there, plus I've seen numerous 5-10 inch storms in April in my 30+ years here, and a few over a foot.

NYC, LI, CNJ and  NJ and CT coast and south true.

Yea, to get the big snow late in the season, you need a lot of things to go right as a result of the high sun angle. The way I see it, there are three ways to override it.

1) Very Heavy snowfall rates (i.e. 30-40+ dbz)

2) Very cold temperatures (i.e. below 25 degrees)

3) Nighttime (after the solar influence diminishes)

It has happened before, but it's hard to get. The last measurable snowfall in April in NYC was 0.1" on April 5, 2006 (which put CPK from 39.9" to 40" on the season to make for the fourth consecutive 40"+ snow season). Also April 7, 2003 when 4.0" accumulated in CPK during the day. The Kocin/Uccellini book "Northeast Snowstorms Volume II: The Cases" beings up a few examples of late season snowstorms (including the May 9, 1977 event).

By the way CP, I sent you a message last week. Did you get it?

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Post by mancave25 Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:52 am

How does nw nj fear with weekend storm

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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:57 am

the 12z not a model is furthest south of all the models and shows that high pressure in central Canada well under modeled from yesterdays global runs. not that I trust this model but it's usually the most amped and farthest north at the end of its run. see if the other models follow suit
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:12 am

TWC has ice to rain for NYC currently
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:18 am

@RJB8525 wrote:TWC has ice to rain for NYC currently

That's a good first call.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:18 am

12z GFS op is is still a torch lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:20 am

@rb924119 wrote:12z GFS op is is still a torch lol

I kind of hope this trends even more west so we are warm sectored and avoid the brunt of the rain.

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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:24 am

biggest difference to me on today's gfs is the speed of the low pressure the 6 Z had the low over Arkansas at 4 a.m. Sunday the 12 Z has it in Ohio if it can move quicker we have a better shot of getting more snow on the front end. this kind of makes sense in such a progressive pattern we are in
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:25 am

The final few days of February is going to features temps. well below normal again, which will probably put February 2015 as a top 10 coldest of all time. There is also a storm signal in this time frame as well. Here were the 00z EPS

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 4 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:26 am

12z UKMET also cuts the Saturday storm as far west as the GFS.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:27 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z UKMET also cuts the Saturday storm as far west as the GFS.

We're doomed lmao

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:28 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:12z UKMET also cuts the Saturday storm as far west as the GFS.

We're doomed lmao

Honestly, upper air pattern supports it. Once I saw the SE Ridge show up on guidance I knew it was a matter of time before this low started trending even more west. The PV is too far into central Canada to try and suppress the SE Ridge. Plus now we're seeing a -PNA. All a recipe for a GLC.

(GLC = great lakes cutter for those who don't know)

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Post by algae888 Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:34 am

g_f _s showing temperature is in the upper forty's on sunday I have a hard time believing that considering the snow pack not only in our area but also in the midwest from the last storm. plus the frozen ground up n down the eastern half of the country
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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:35 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:12z UKMET also cuts the Saturday storm as far west as the GFS.

We're doomed lmao

Honestly, upper air pattern supports it. Once I saw the SE Ridge show up on guidance I knew it was a matter of time before this low started trending even more west. The PV is too far into central Canada to try and suppress the SE Ridge. Plus now we're seeing a -PNA. All a recipe for a GLC.

(GLC = great lakes cutter for those who don't know)

Yup. Totally agree. I think by tonights 00z runs we'll have a consensus for the first time this winter lmfao

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:36 am

I really like the set-up around the 26th still. Gotta watch that one. Definitely no cutters in that type of upper air configuration.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:46 am

I do not think I was this excited for a major storm since Juno, which even though missed most of us, was still a big storm and literally missed NYC by a few miles. I see equal potential with this one.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:48 am

Blah, not getting sucked into LR threats this winter, nope, noooopppeee. Sorry.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Feb 18, 2015 12:03 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I do not think I was this excited for a major storm since Juno, which even though missed most of us, was still a big storm and literally missed NYC by a few miles. I see equal potential with this one.

I like this period also, but keep in mind this will likely be the storm responsible for changing our pattern **IF** it verifies. Big storms like to occur on the fringes of regime changes.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 18, 2015 12:04 pm

You talking about 25/26 Frank in terms of another possible storm? You said Godzilla possible but are you also thinking it has potential to be another Juno? Yes we lost out but its something to hope for. I won't get too sucked in but I def will be watching and hoping.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 18, 2015 12:06 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I do not think I was this excited for a major storm since Juno, which even though missed most of us, was still a big storm and literally missed NYC by a few miles. I see equal potential with this one.

I like this period also, but keep in mind this will likely be the storm responsible for changing our pattern **IF** it verifies. Big storms like to occur on the fringes of regime changes.

Well then lets go out with a blast!
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