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Long Range Thread 7.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:49 pm

NAO might be too west based and suppress the coastal storm. We'll see

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Post by amugs Thu Apr 23, 2015 8:30 am

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 39 Gfs_namer_189_500_vort_ht

Oh boy?

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:13 am

Last night's 00z gfs had a monster drop to 971 as it passes just around bm. Winds hurricane force mostly over water big snows for maine and new Hampshire. Euro suppressed it and cmc too. But it's been back and forth.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:14 am

That is a incredible setup 2 months ago this place would b go wild. Shame.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:24 am

@amugs wrote:Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 39 Gfs_namer_189_500_vort_ht

Oh boy?
That gets more intense as it moves nne too. Def something to watch wish by some freak of nature we saw snow lol
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Post by Guest Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:37 am

I agree with Frank. It's spring now. Who wants rain and winds that make us think about what if it was winter. Mad Mad Mad Give me sunny and 70's now. Plus the storm would just screw up the streams and rivers and delay my real fly fishing even further. Our water temps are already 2 weeks behind!!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Apr 23, 2015 12:04 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:That is a incredible setup 2 months ago this place would b go wild. Shame.

You know something I think a month to 5 weeks ago alot of us see snow with this setup.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 23, 2015 12:09 pm

Yeah possibly, oh well Frank posted in banter a story about PDO and next year could be a doozy, long ways to go for that lol, sigh. Tis why I will track anything, the weather in my can't stop from April to December, sorry ain't going to happen.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Apr 23, 2015 12:52 pm

GFS suppresses the storm

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 39 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 23, 2015 1:08 pm

Well its two runs, who knows its 7 days out, last nights GFS was a bomb, these things waffle as we know. Bastardi and Maue feel a SE to midatlantic/northeast path is favored. Still way too early to make any plans, I am supposed to go to the zoo that day, but alternate is aquarium so either way I am good.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 23, 2015 1:59 pm

GEM doesn't pfffffbbbb lol geek

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 39 Cmc_1210
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 23, 2015 2:00 pm

On a different note when do we start to see regular shorts weather?
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Apr 23, 2015 4:05 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:On a different note when do we start to see regular shorts weather?

July

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Apr 23, 2015 4:53 pm

Been wearing shorts 45° and above for me lol
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:28 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:On a different note when do we start to see regular shorts weather?

July

You gotta b f-in kidding me! No sustained 70+ temps before july! 45 a bit cold for shorts skins lol, 18z suppressed the system too so i guess thats what we will say at this time.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:39 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:On a different note when do we start to see regular shorts weather?

July

You gotta b f-in kidding me!  No sustained 70+ temps before july!  45 a bit cold for shorts skins lol, 18z suppressed the system too so i guess thats what we will say at this time.

Haha, I was JK.

It may get warm as early as May 1st. Looks warm

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Apr 23, 2015 8:39 pm

I'm hoping the warmth comes early May. Got my annual golf trip with my buddies down to ocean city md. Frank can you explain this below normal temps is it bc of polar jet still being around
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:33 pm

I was just thinking was Frank kidding, ahhh the tired days of the end of the final semester.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:24 am

Gfs and euro brought back coastal at 00z and cmc lost or suppressed lt. Man the models are just comical.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:30 am

The next few days including the first couple of days in May will be normal to below normal as the extreme west-based -NAO hangs on.

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 39 Eps_z500a_exnamer_17

The EPS suggest by the middle of the 1st week of May we may warm up - though the greatest warm anomalies are still to our west. That pesky trough over northern New England and SE Canada is showing up again.

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 39 Eps_z500a_exnamer_49

The GEFS put us in a mainly westerly flow which allows the warmer temps to spread into our area. Average temps. in the beginning of May are around 70-72 degrees so it should feel nice when it gets here. Better then these 50's....

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 39 Gefs_z500a_noram_41

In terms of precip, there may be a few days next week with overcast / cool / and damp conditions. Namely Monday & Thursday, but it looks light at this time.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Apr 25, 2015 9:13 am

Today marks the anniversary of the largest late season snowfall in NYC. Back in 1875 NYC saw 3.0 inches of snow on April 25th.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Apr 25, 2015 9:17 am

The average high temperature in NYC does not reach 70 until May 11th and the average high does not reach 72 until May 20th.

Let's not rush things Frank, it was just snowing yesterday.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Apr 25, 2015 10:57 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The average high temperature in NYC does not reach 70 until May 11th and the average high does not reach 72 until May 20th.

Let's not rush things Frank, it was just snowing yesterday.

Ha, I was going off memory which usually fails. I swear, I envy people like Mike who have fantastic memory. Is there a pill to take for that?

Anyway, I'm still seeing mainly normal to below normal temps through May 3rd with a turnaround thereafter.

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Post by Math23x7 Sun Apr 26, 2015 4:12 pm

This image is beautiful!!!

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 39 8to14d10

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Apr 26, 2015 5:33 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:This image is beautiful!!!

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 39 8to14d10

For some it is, not all of us.
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