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Long Range Thread 7.0

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Apr 26, 2015 8:49 pm

Models are bringing back the coastal potential, 18z GFS is pretty bullish just offshore.

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 40 Gfs_1810
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Apr 27, 2015 12:27 am

00Z GFS is even more bullish for Friday's system -- 988 mb low off of Cape May.

I am trying to post an image but something seems wrong with the little computer/disk icon we usually click to do so. Anyone else having issues? It's basically just the servimg.com box with language preference...
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:52 am

The warmup I alluded to is still showing up on the GFS starting May 3rd and lasting into the foreseeable future with temps at least 70 degrees.

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 40 KEWR_2015042700_nx_15

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:55 am

The GGEM and EURO do NOT have a coastal system for Friday. They keep it well offshore. At this point, I am siding with those 2 models over the GFS. The block is too west-based.

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 40 Ecmwf_z500a_noram_17

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:48 am

True Frank but the Euro and the GFS bring it the furthest north, the CMC never really develops at all and stays well in southern states. 00z run shows what looks like forst tropical originated storm on CMC later in the run but I am chocking that up to itsd bias to blow up LP more than they usually are during this time of year, bit early for a TS, even in 7-10 days. This looks like on GFS to be a Friday thing anyways so my Thursday outdoor plans should be good, and if Frank is right Friday will b good too. Warmup I like : )
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Apr 28, 2015 4:31 am

3 straight mornings of sub freezing looks like it comes to an end this week. Let the boring season begin. I do expect at least one freeze in May as that is the norm but we shall see.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:03 am

Mid-80's next week?

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 40 Post-90-0-35631200-1430311737

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:43 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Mid-80's next week?

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 40 Post-90-0-35631200-1430311737

Shorts! LOL Awesome I hope it happens, would prefer on weekend as I have wear dress cloths at work and im outside a lot going from place to place but i'll take it!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:53 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Mid-80's next week?

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 40 Post-90-0-35631200-1430311737

I hope not. That's to much to soon. Mid 80s would be 20 degrees above the normal high this time of year. Mid spring is about beautiful days in the 60s and low 70s. Like today which is just about perfect.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Apr 29, 2015 1:51 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Mid-80's next week?

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 40 Post-90-0-35631200-1430311737

I hope not. That's to much to soon. Mid 80s would be 20 degrees above the normal high this time of year. Mid spring is about beautiful days in the 60s and low 70s. Like today which is just about perfect.

CP your right it is too soon, I wonder if that would mean a oppressive summer (which I do recall hearing was the possible summer forecvast, which I can def do without).
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Apr 29, 2015 1:53 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The GGEM and EURO do NOT have a coastal system for Friday. They keep it well offshore. At this point, I am siding with those 2 models over the GFS. The block is too west-based.

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 40 Ecmwf_z500a_noram_17

Even the GFS keeps it well offshore now, again Frank the master 10 days ago knew it would stay offshore amazing my friend : ) Now I am interested in this little birdie come up in the 7-10 day that I posted about I tropics section because it appears to come out of the tropics.
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Post by amugs Wed Apr 29, 2015 8:18 pm

Temps for next week - Tuesday through Thursday look to be Marvelous but .........

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 40 Gfs_t2max_nyc_34

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri May 01, 2015 1:06 pm

The long range is boooooooooooooring


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Post by HectorO Fri May 01, 2015 11:09 pm

Man, it's been months since I've been here. Temps next week definitely look great. Good thing is I'm off the entire week.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon May 04, 2015 3:56 pm

The CFS is forecasting a super El Nino to develop over the summer into the winter.

Hopefully that is false.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon May 04, 2015 4:23 pm

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 40 Nino_plumes_public_s4!3.4!plumes!201504!chart

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Post by amugs Mon May 04, 2015 9:25 pm

Let's hope so cause that is off the charts nino. Jesus mine as just as well have two season spring and summer.
Did you see the sst peediction? The temps are like ridiculously hot tub warm

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 40 GlbSSTSeaInd6

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Post by Math23x7 Tue May 05, 2015 12:43 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 40 Nino_plumes_public_s4!3.4!plumes!201504!chart

The two most well known Super El Ninos were 1982-83 and 1997-98.  Here is what the combined summers of 1982 and 1997 looked like:

Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 40 Supere10

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Post by rb924119 Tue May 05, 2015 12:48 pm

Before we get too wrapped up in it, remember that we have been in a crazy-strong El Nino since this past August, according to the forecasts from this time last year, and we all know how that verified (so far) lol Neutral to weak at best. I think we gotta just wait and see how things play out for the next one to two months before we start putting stock into any one particular solution. At any rate, I think our tropics will remain substantially quiet this season. regardless of whether or not El Nino conditions increase further.

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Post by algae888 Thu May 07, 2015 8:35 am

besides some drizzle on Monday weather looks dry for next 10 days. so much for a wet cool spring as most of may looks to be well above normal with below normal precip. at least through the 17th. so far this spring april was 1+* above normal and precip 2+" below. may is 7* above so far and well below with precip. my kind of spring.Very Happy
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu May 07, 2015 9:44 am

Wow, Monday at one point was looking like a washout on the GFS. With High Pressure in control, most of the rain will be to our west-northwest and we could be mainly dry. I'll continue watching.

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Post by docstox12 Thu May 07, 2015 1:52 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Long Range Thread 7.0 - Page 40 Nino_plumes_public_s4!3.4!plumes!201504!chart

We've had two winters of above normal snowfall so I hope this does not pan out and put the kibosh on next winter.
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Post by Nyi1058 Mon May 11, 2015 11:49 am

Maybe I should have posted here instead , was wondering what this sat looks like as far as rain . I have a 100 mile bike ride from Babylon to montauk . Please make the rain go way !! Was wondering in the timeing if anybody can help me out . We all know the tv doesn't provide as accurate details as you guys here !! Thanks !!

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Post by algae888 Mon May 11, 2015 11:53 am

@Nyi1058 wrote:Maybe I should have posted here instead , was wondering what this sat looks like as far as rain . I have a 100 mile bike ride from Babylon to montauk . Please make the rain go way !! Was wondering in the timeing if anybody can help me out . We all know the tv doesn't provide as accurate details as you guys here !! Thanks !!
it's still too early to tell there will be a week low pressure passing around the ridge over the southeast. still too early to tell but right now doesn't look like much rain hope that helps
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon May 11, 2015 12:00 pm

@Nyi1058 wrote:Maybe I should have posted here instead , was wondering what this sat looks like as far as rain . I have a 100 mile bike ride from Babylon to montauk . Please make the rain go way !! Was wondering in the timeing if anybody can help me out . We all know the tv doesn't provide as accurate details as you guys here !! Thanks !!

Check other thread for your response.


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