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1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

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1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm Empty 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:12 pm

As early as 2-4pm Saturday afternoon, snow or ice will move into the NYC Metro area due to a developing low pressure system in the southeast US.

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm Gfs_z500a_namer_11

The -PNA helps the southeast ridge amplify over the east coast. Without a PV in eastern Canada, there's no mechanism to try and suppress it. However, there will be a High to our northwest that will prevent the low from doing a full cut to our west. So we avoid the rain and temps in the 40's.

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f60

You can see the GFS starts us as snow before transitioning over the ice or rain. The EURO and GEM appear to be much colder. They keep the cold air in tact longer and show a weaker low.

1st call snow map:

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm 10404301_891326007585826_5087907176777557030_n

I do caution that the 4-8" is probably TOO HIGH. With my final call I can see the light and darker shade of blue becoming 1 zone of 3-6". I want to see if overnight and 12z runs tomorrow trend wetter with this system, which I think is possible still. Pretty confident about the other regions at this time.

Final call tomorrow @7pm

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Post by 2004blackwrx Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:37 pm

4 to 8 would be great. 3 to 6 still good especially compared to what we were expecting just 18 hours ago.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:05 pm

Frank great map and the cold trend is there. I write there is snow on the ground everywhere north of a line from Cape Hatteras, NC across to the southern border of the state of Tennessee. How much warm air can reasonably & plausibly be expected to be advected north given such a circumstance, considering the mid latitude disturbance is not some behemoth? I think the gfs is a tad warm given thus just mho here but we'll see

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Post by mancave25 Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:07 pm

Any models out yet

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Post by Biggin23 Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:31 pm

NAM should be....

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:33 pm

THE NOT A MODEL and guess what showing snow from dc to midsletown, NY and heavy dbz snows hours 18z to 21z from cnj north to Poughkeepsie. Colder run definitely se what the other models show. Imo gfs to warm from what I posted above.

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Post by 2004blackwrx Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:38 pm

3 to 6 just north and west with another interesting storm. This is a decent hit but it seems the interest isn't here.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:43 pm

@2004blackwrx wrote:3 to 6 just north and west with another interesting storm. This is a decent hit but it seems the interest isn't here.

Most people are worn out just from tracking, haha.

The dumbo model did trend colder. I want to see GFS.

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Post by Biggin23 Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:43 pm

I'm interested, but I don't think this storm an trend enough to the coastal plain. Might end up being an over performer inland where the cold air hangs on a little longer.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:45 pm

@Biggin23 wrote:I'm interested, but I don't think this storm an trend enough to the coastal plain. Might end up being an over performer inland where the cold air hangs on a little longer.

Yes, eastern PA - west NJ - southern NY

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Post by 2004blackwrx Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:49 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@2004blackwrx wrote:3 to 6 just north and west with another interesting storm. This is a decent hit but it seems the interest isn't here.

Most people are worn out just from tracking, haha.  

The dumbo model did trend colder. I want to see GFS.

Very understandable this winter especially with all the tracking and no big ones yet.

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Post by oldtimer Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:50 pm

Frank How much rain with this? Do I escape !-2 inches?

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Post by Biggin23 Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:51 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Biggin23 wrote:I'm interested, but I don't think this storm an trend enough to the coastal plain. Might end up being an over performer inland where the cold air hangs on a little longer.

Yes, eastern PA - west NJ - southern NY

I need about 50 miles, LOL. Just close enough to give me hope and just close enough to make it painful Saturday night. Oh well, we have gotten lucky the last two systems it is time to share the wealth in this forum. If it doesn't come my way, I hope someone else here gets lucky!!

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Post by Biggin23 Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:58 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Frank  How much rain with this?   Do I escape !-2 inches?

Looks like about an inch to 1.25 total qpf....so maybe right around an inch of rain or a little less if snow hangs on a little longer.

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Post by oldtimer Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:00 pm

Thanks Big

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:01 pm

On 3" line, just got NAMed lol, dont get sucked in...
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Post by Biggin23 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:02 pm

South of I-195 into the Delmarva gets a lot of rain, well over an inch some spots close to two

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:10 pm

Nice map, Frank!!!

FWIW 00z NAM clown map:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:15 pm

Did anyone see the 0Z RGEM???

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:19 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:Did anyone see the 0Z RGEM???

I haven't. Why? It's not fully in range yet, anyway, so be careful when looking at it. It's meant for very short predictive windows, so anything you see towards the end of its forecast must be taken with skepticism.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:24 pm

RGEM!!!! colder and a tad wetter - woop woop

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm I_nw_r1_EST_2015022000_044

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:27 pm

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm I_nw_r1_EST_2015022000_046

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm I_nw_r1_EST_2015022000_047

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm I_nw_r1_EST_2015022000_048

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:28 pm

Right along 95 does very well this run.....

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:32 pm

REM total snowfall based on 10:1

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022000/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

Keep in mind that this is about halfway through the event....

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:33 pm

@rb924119 wrote:REM total snowfall based on 10:1

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022000/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

Keep in mind that this is about halfway through the event....

Also keep in mind that towards the end of its run, the rain/snow line creeps in from the Atlantic Ocean and approaches NYC and LI.

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