NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

+24
Quietace
lglickman1
skinsfan1177
jimv45
CPcantmeasuresnow
sroc4
jmanley32
Artechmetals
Grselig
Analog96
SNOW MAN
docstox12
algae888
Yschiff
aiannone
Math23x7
rb924119
NjWeatherGuy
oldtimer
Biggin23
mancave25
amugs
2004blackwrx
Frank_Wx
28 posters

Page 2 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:35 pm

I wonder if the extreme low level cold we'll see tonight and tomorrow are having effects on the models tomight? Granted it's only 2 runs, but if GFS comes in colder, the 3-6 line would have to be moved down much further south. Possibly near Philly.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:41 pm

Notice where the heaviest axis of precip. has set up on the 00z NAM/RGEM runs tonight. Right along I-95 where there is elongated H5 energy and impressive H7 VV's

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 NAM_CritThickRH_ne_f48

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 NAM_500mbHgtVort_ne_f66

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:42 pm

Cold 850's on 00z RGEM

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 TT_GZ_UU_VV_048_0850

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:46 pm

GFS looking cold again so far through 42.....

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/GFS_00_opUS_P850TS_0042.png

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:47 pm

And yeah Frank, I-95 seems to be the jackpot for the heaviest precipitation. Whether it's rain, snow or a two-piece chicken combo meal, remains to be seen.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:47 pm

GFS trended colder

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f48

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f51

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:47 pm

48:

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/GFS_00_opUS_P850TS_0048.png

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:48 pm

That surface low in NW PA is unfortunate

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f54

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:49 pm

At least it's weaker than previous runs lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:51 pm

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:51 pm

The cold trend continues. If this continues through tmw night we will be looking at a mostly snow event changing to mixed precip and maybe a brief period of rain, but by that time most of the qpf will be gone.
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4267
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:52 pm

There's no way that the surface gets that warm. Sorry lol I don't care what it shows, that isn't happening.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:52 pm

The GFS shoots the H5 energy further north and west as opposed to the NAM which takes it closer to the coast.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:55 pm

Ok guys (and gals), this guy's headed to bed. I wish I could stay up and track, but I've been burning the candle at both ends too much. I'm catching up on sleep tonight. I'll check back in the morning to catch up and to issue my first call. Have fun and good luck!!!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by Guest Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:55 pm

HERE'S THE OFFICIAL SYOSNOW FORECAST!

Rain???? Has anyone making a forecast been outside tonight. Epic cold the next 48 hours!!!

Hey Crew. No model can pick up on the extreme cold in place over this snowpack! Plus the ocean is freezing and in many cases the bays here on the south shore of LI are frozen over and can be walked on. Here's the key and I don't need no stinkin model...
if we can get down into the mid single digits tomorrow night ( which we are predicted to do)with light winds and radiational cooling, then we're in business. On Saturday early morning it clouds over keeping the temps. from getting much above 25 here on LI and NYC metro. Then as precip starts we wet bulb down to low 20's. This allows a 3 to 5" solid frond end thump area wide and then NYC and LI get dry slotted late Saturday night and possibly get some freezing drizzle Sunday with temps never getting above freezing, except maybe South fork of LI and Central Jersey coast.

Hudson Valley, NNj and CT get solid 4 to 7"

Mark it down now!!

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by aiannone Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:55 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The GFS shoots the H5 energy further north and west as opposed to the NAM which takes it closer to the coast.

RGEM has been quite impressive with it's performance on precip type over the last few events and the NAM is getting into range, so they are certainly not something to dismiss.
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4267
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:56 pm

@rb924119 wrote:There's no way that the surface gets that warm. Sorry lol I don't care what it shows, that isn't happening.

There is no High to the north and the surface low N&W of us really warms the mid levels. I bet the soundings are ugly by hour 54

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:56 pm

00z GFS Op total snow based on 10:1

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/snosums/0048/GFS_00_opUS_SF_0066.png

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:59 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:There's no way that the surface gets that warm. Sorry lol I don't care what it shows, that isn't happening.

There is no High to the north and the surface low N&W of us really warms the mid levels. I bet the soundings are ugly by hour 54

The snow will act as it's own cold air source. Don't forget, the advection at the surface by 1012 hPa low is pretty darn weak. Couple that with a 600 mile trek over snow-covered ground, that warmth will be moderated by at least 30-40% by the time it gets here. And if you're getting snow, the mid-levels can't be that warm lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:00 pm

With that, I'm headed to bed lol Happy tracking everybody!!!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:05 pm

Ok, one last thing is the thicknesses. A hair over 540 dam. That means that throughout the column you are ever so slightly above freezing in parts of the column. If you were 546 dam or greater, I'd agree with you 100%. But a 541 or 542 dam thickness says maybe mid-30s at the surface during the warmest part, and then hovering between 28 degrees (to start) warming to 33/34 as an average atmospheric temperature profile.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:10 pm

The trend has been more precip during the coldest part of the storm and less precip when it warms up. I forget which date - but there was a similar storm this season with a surface low N&W of NYC and we changed to ice. There will be a changeover, just could be delayed. As Alex said, there may not be any precip by the time it gets here. We'll see.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:13 pm

Hour 54, when there is still moderate precip over the area, shows 850's ranging from 0 to +2*C

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Gfs_t850_nyc_10

Surface is also well above freezing then. That is rain.

But not as much rain compared to snow. That's the trend.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:14 pm

To rb's point, if that low continues getting weaker west of us then we worry less about warming mid-levels. We'll see tomorrow. Goodnight.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by 2004blackwrx Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:27 pm

All I know the valley in the Hudson valley is a strong force. Temps often take longer to drop and longer to rise. The mountains prevent temps from changing with the surrounding area.

2004blackwrx
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 505
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-01-14
Location : Wappinger NY

Back to top Go down

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Empty Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum