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1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:32 pm

REM total snowfall based on 10:1

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022000/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

Keep in mind that this is about halfway through the event....

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:33 pm

rb924119 wrote:REM total snowfall based on 10:1

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022000/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

Keep in mind that this is about halfway through the event....

Also keep in mind that towards the end of its run, the rain/snow line creeps in from the Atlantic Ocean and approaches NYC and LI.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:35 pm

I wonder if the extreme low level cold we'll see tonight and tomorrow are having effects on the models tomight? Granted it's only 2 runs, but if GFS comes in colder, the 3-6 line would have to be moved down much further south. Possibly near Philly.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:41 pm

Notice where the heaviest axis of precip. has set up on the 00z NAM/RGEM runs tonight. Right along I-95 where there is elongated H5 energy and impressive H7 VV's

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 NAM_CritThickRH_ne_f48

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 NAM_500mbHgtVort_ne_f66

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:42 pm

Cold 850's on 00z RGEM

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 TT_GZ_UU_VV_048_0850

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:46 pm

GFS looking cold again so far through 42.....

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/GFS_00_opUS_P850TS_0042.png

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:47 pm

And yeah Frank, I-95 seems to be the jackpot for the heaviest precipitation. Whether it's rain, snow or a two-piece chicken combo meal, remains to be seen.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:47 pm

GFS trended colder

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f48

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f51

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:47 pm

48:

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/GFS_00_opUS_P850TS_0048.png

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:48 pm

That surface low in NW PA is unfortunate

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f54

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:49 pm

At least it's weaker than previous runs lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:51 pm

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:51 pm

The cold trend continues. If this continues through tmw night we will be looking at a mostly snow event changing to mixed precip and maybe a brief period of rain, but by that time most of the qpf will be gone.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:52 pm

There's no way that the surface gets that warm. Sorry lol I don't care what it shows, that isn't happening.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:52 pm

The GFS shoots the H5 energy further north and west as opposed to the NAM which takes it closer to the coast.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:55 pm

Ok guys (and gals), this guy's headed to bed. I wish I could stay up and track, but I've been burning the candle at both ends too much. I'm catching up on sleep tonight. I'll check back in the morning to catch up and to issue my first call. Have fun and good luck!!!

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Post by Guest Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:55 pm

HERE'S THE OFFICIAL SYOSNOW FORECAST!

Rain???? Has anyone making a forecast been outside tonight. Epic cold the next 48 hours!!!

Hey Crew. No model can pick up on the extreme cold in place over this snowpack! Plus the ocean is freezing and in many cases the bays here on the south shore of LI are frozen over and can be walked on. Here's the key and I don't need no stinkin model...
if we can get down into the mid single digits tomorrow night ( which we are predicted to do)with light winds and radiational cooling, then we're in business. On Saturday early morning it clouds over keeping the temps. from getting much above 25 here on LI and NYC metro. Then as precip starts we wet bulb down to low 20's. This allows a 3 to 5" solid frond end thump area wide and then NYC and LI get dry slotted late Saturday night and possibly get some freezing drizzle Sunday with temps never getting above freezing, except maybe South fork of LI and Central Jersey coast.

Hudson Valley, NNj and CT get solid 4 to 7"

Mark it down now!!

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:55 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The GFS shoots the H5 energy further north and west as opposed to the NAM which takes it closer to the coast.

RGEM has been quite impressive with it's performance on precip type over the last few events and the NAM is getting into range, so they are certainly not something to dismiss.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:56 pm

rb924119 wrote:There's no way that the surface gets that warm. Sorry lol I don't care what it shows, that isn't happening.

There is no High to the north and the surface low N&W of us really warms the mid levels. I bet the soundings are ugly by hour 54

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:56 pm

00z GFS Op total snow based on 10:1

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/snosums/0048/GFS_00_opUS_SF_0066.png

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:There's no way that the surface gets that warm. Sorry lol I don't care what it shows, that isn't happening.

There is no High to the north and the surface low N&W of us really warms the mid levels. I bet the soundings are ugly by hour 54

The snow will act as it's own cold air source. Don't forget, the advection at the surface by 1012 hPa low is pretty darn weak. Couple that with a 600 mile trek over snow-covered ground, that warmth will be moderated by at least 30-40% by the time it gets here. And if you're getting snow, the mid-levels can't be that warm lol

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:00 pm

With that, I'm headed to bed lol Happy tracking everybody!!!

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:05 pm

Ok, one last thing is the thicknesses. A hair over 540 dam. That means that throughout the column you are ever so slightly above freezing in parts of the column. If you were 546 dam or greater, I'd agree with you 100%. But a 541 or 542 dam thickness says maybe mid-30s at the surface during the warmest part, and then hovering between 28 degrees (to start) warming to 33/34 as an average atmospheric temperature profile.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:10 pm

The trend has been more precip during the coldest part of the storm and less precip when it warms up. I forget which date - but there was a similar storm this season with a surface low N&W of NYC and we changed to ice. There will be a changeover, just could be delayed. As Alex said, there may not be any precip by the time it gets here. We'll see.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:13 pm

Hour 54, when there is still moderate precip over the area, shows 850's ranging from 0 to +2*C

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 2 Gfs_t850_nyc_10

Surface is also well above freezing then. That is rain.

But not as much rain compared to snow. That's the trend.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:14 pm

To rb's point, if that low continues getting weaker west of us then we worry less about warming mid-levels. We'll see tomorrow. Goodnight.

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Post by 2004blackwrx Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:27 pm

All I know the valley in the Hudson valley is a strong force. Temps often take longer to drop and longer to rise. The mountains prevent temps from changing with the surrounding area.

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