1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
REM total snowfall based on 10:1
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022000/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png
Keep in mind that this is about halfway through the event....
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022000/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png
Keep in mind that this is about halfway through the event....
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
rb924119 wrote:REM total snowfall based on 10:1
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022000/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png
Keep in mind that this is about halfway through the event....
Also keep in mind that towards the end of its run, the rain/snow line creeps in from the Atlantic Ocean and approaches NYC and LI.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
I wonder if the extreme low level cold we'll see tonight and tomorrow are having effects on the models tomight? Granted it's only 2 runs, but if GFS comes in colder, the 3-6 line would have to be moved down much further south. Possibly near Philly.
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Notice where the heaviest axis of precip. has set up on the 00z NAM/RGEM runs tonight. Right along I-95 where there is elongated H5 energy and impressive H7 VV's
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Cold 850's on 00z RGEM
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
GFS looking cold again so far through 42.....
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/GFS_00_opUS_P850TS_0042.png
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/GFS_00_opUS_P850TS_0042.png
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
And yeah Frank, I-95 seems to be the jackpot for the heaviest precipitation. Whether it's rain, snow or a two-piece chicken combo meal, remains to be seen.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
GFS trended colder
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
48:
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/GFS_00_opUS_P850TS_0048.png
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/GFS_00_opUS_P850TS_0048.png
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
That surface low in NW PA is unfortunate
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
At least it's weaker than previous runs lol
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
The cold trend continues. If this continues through tmw night we will be looking at a mostly snow event changing to mixed precip and maybe a brief period of rain, but by that time most of the qpf will be gone.
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
There's no way that the surface gets that warm. Sorry lol I don't care what it shows, that isn't happening.
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
The GFS shoots the H5 energy further north and west as opposed to the NAM which takes it closer to the coast.
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Ok guys (and gals), this guy's headed to bed. I wish I could stay up and track, but I've been burning the candle at both ends too much. I'm catching up on sleep tonight. I'll check back in the morning to catch up and to issue my first call. Have fun and good luck!!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
HERE'S THE OFFICIAL SYOSNOW FORECAST!
Rain???? Has anyone making a forecast been outside tonight. Epic cold the next 48 hours!!!
Hey Crew. No model can pick up on the extreme cold in place over this snowpack! Plus the ocean is freezing and in many cases the bays here on the south shore of LI are frozen over and can be walked on. Here's the key and I don't need no stinkin model...
if we can get down into the mid single digits tomorrow night ( which we are predicted to do)with light winds and radiational cooling, then we're in business. On Saturday early morning it clouds over keeping the temps. from getting much above 25 here on LI and NYC metro. Then as precip starts we wet bulb down to low 20's. This allows a 3 to 5" solid frond end thump area wide and then NYC and LI get dry slotted late Saturday night and possibly get some freezing drizzle Sunday with temps never getting above freezing, except maybe South fork of LI and Central Jersey coast.
Hudson Valley, NNj and CT get solid 4 to 7"
Mark it down now!!
Rain???? Has anyone making a forecast been outside tonight. Epic cold the next 48 hours!!!
Hey Crew. No model can pick up on the extreme cold in place over this snowpack! Plus the ocean is freezing and in many cases the bays here on the south shore of LI are frozen over and can be walked on. Here's the key and I don't need no stinkin model...
if we can get down into the mid single digits tomorrow night ( which we are predicted to do)with light winds and radiational cooling, then we're in business. On Saturday early morning it clouds over keeping the temps. from getting much above 25 here on LI and NYC metro. Then as precip starts we wet bulb down to low 20's. This allows a 3 to 5" solid frond end thump area wide and then NYC and LI get dry slotted late Saturday night and possibly get some freezing drizzle Sunday with temps never getting above freezing, except maybe South fork of LI and Central Jersey coast.
Hudson Valley, NNj and CT get solid 4 to 7"
Mark it down now!!
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Frank_Wx wrote:The GFS shoots the H5 energy further north and west as opposed to the NAM which takes it closer to the coast.
RGEM has been quite impressive with it's performance on precip type over the last few events and the NAM is getting into range, so they are certainly not something to dismiss.
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
rb924119 wrote:There's no way that the surface gets that warm. Sorry lol I don't care what it shows, that isn't happening.
There is no High to the north and the surface low N&W of us really warms the mid levels. I bet the soundings are ugly by hour 54
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
00z GFS Op total snow based on 10:1
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/snosums/0048/GFS_00_opUS_SF_0066.png
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/snosums/0048/GFS_00_opUS_SF_0066.png
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Frank_Wx wrote:rb924119 wrote:There's no way that the surface gets that warm. Sorry lol I don't care what it shows, that isn't happening.
There is no High to the north and the surface low N&W of us really warms the mid levels. I bet the soundings are ugly by hour 54
The snow will act as it's own cold air source. Don't forget, the advection at the surface by 1012 hPa low is pretty darn weak. Couple that with a 600 mile trek over snow-covered ground, that warmth will be moderated by at least 30-40% by the time it gets here. And if you're getting snow, the mid-levels can't be that warm lol
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
With that, I'm headed to bed lol Happy tracking everybody!!!
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Ok, one last thing is the thicknesses. A hair over 540 dam. That means that throughout the column you are ever so slightly above freezing in parts of the column. If you were 546 dam or greater, I'd agree with you 100%. But a 541 or 542 dam thickness says maybe mid-30s at the surface during the warmest part, and then hovering between 28 degrees (to start) warming to 33/34 as an average atmospheric temperature profile.
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
The trend has been more precip during the coldest part of the storm and less precip when it warms up. I forget which date - but there was a similar storm this season with a surface low N&W of NYC and we changed to ice. There will be a changeover, just could be delayed. As Alex said, there may not be any precip by the time it gets here. We'll see.
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
Hour 54, when there is still moderate precip over the area, shows 850's ranging from 0 to +2*C
Surface is also well above freezing then. That is rain.
But not as much rain compared to snow. That's the trend.
Surface is also well above freezing then. That is rain.
But not as much rain compared to snow. That's the trend.
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
To rb's point, if that low continues getting weaker west of us then we worry less about warming mid-levels. We'll see tomorrow. Goodnight.
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Re: 1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm
All I know the valley in the Hudson valley is a strong force. Temps often take longer to drop and longer to rise. The mountains prevent temps from changing with the surrounding area.
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