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1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:37 pm

00z CMC

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 3 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f45

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 3 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f48

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 3 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f51

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 3 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f54

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 3 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 3 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f60


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Post by Yschiff Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:49 pm

Could you please post the cmc snow map

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:53 pm

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 3 Cmc_snow_acc_nyc_12

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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Feb 20, 2015 12:21 am

Am I reading the CMC right as all snow Putnam county and north.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 20, 2015 12:56 am

Man id like another 5" here.
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 20, 2015 1:06 am

nice 00z runs. still some spread in 850's and surface temps. so what are models trying to tell us and what do we know about climo and obs? climo and obs tells us with several inches of fresh new snow and a solid snow pack and sst at there very coldest with a s/sw wind (weak and over snow pack) surface temps are going to struggle to reach freezing for most of the area. so why are some models like cmc have temps in 40's on sunday and most models have rapidly rising temps in the early morning hours? strong surge of warm air in the boundary layers. esp the 925s but also 850's and surface. that tells me we are going to have some intense lifting in the first 6 hrs of this storm and consequently heavy precip which should be all snow. nam and rgem are picking up on this already. gfs much lighter with initial precip. this reminds me of a storm last year I think in feb and to some extent the 1/24 storm ( I could be wrong on the date) this year which had intense snow rates with heavy wet snow which was forecast to change to rain but was delayed and when the change over happened the damage was done with 9" for me last years storm and about 8" on the 1/24 system. so my snow forecast would be at least 4" for most if not all areas and 6-8" in the normally colder places. if the change over is delayed even a couple of hours we could be looking at an area wide 6+" and then a change to some other form of precip at the end of the storm.
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 20, 2015 1:16 am

euro? I only have ewall 24 hr intervals. all other boards are surprisingly quiet
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 20, 2015 1:20 am

EURO looked uglier than 12z run at least here, less precip
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 20, 2015 1:23 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:EURO looked uglier than 12z run at least here, less precip
prob why all boards are quiet.lol well its time to focus now on sr models and see what they say the next few runs.
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 20, 2015 1:27 am

nj what was qpf on euro.
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 20, 2015 3:08 am

twc updated forecast for my area is now 4-8" of snow. they now have heavier precip moving in earlier on sat and still change to rain early sunday morning. just realized I put wens storm map in wrong thread I moved it into lr thread


Last edited by algae888 on Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:40 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 20, 2015 5:33 am

NWS has me 3 1/2 to 6 1/2 with mostly snow and maybe just a little light rain at the end. Good.

Lee had mentioned already in his forecast last night a possible "plowable" snow for next week, so the hits keep on coming! I think, though, this is the last hurrah of bitter cold and snow when I look at those long range March maps with the mild air coming from the Pacific.Enjoy it Snow Weenies while it lasts!
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Post by Biggin23 Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:03 am

06Z NAM dumps rain from CNJ south. Looking at both the NAM and GFS, looks like you get a decent snow event prior to a change to all rain running in a NE line from Philly to NYC. Anything east of those locations don't do well and get at least an inch or more of rain. We need the system to be less amped or need it to shift about 50 miles due East.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:09 am

Euro is a very cold storm while GFS/CMC present mixing issues. Right now I think at least 2 inches is a good bet for NYC with the potential for as much as 6 inches. NEPA to NW NJ to HV are the jackpot zones of at least 4+

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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:13 am

Frank, I noticed local Mets seem to have change the start time for this event to around late morning. What's your thought's on what time it will start and end ?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:31 am

Hey everybody, it looks like the initial surge from mid-morning to about 4-6pm is going to be the brunt of the storm. We only have about a six hour window of nice upslope before it becomes more frontal. I think the max snow totals from this will end up being in the 4-6/7" range, with maybe an isolated 8-9" amount in the luckiest of locations. Map to come....

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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:38 am

@rb924119 wrote:Hey everybody, it looks like the initial surge from mid-morning to about 4-6pm is going to be the brunt of the storm. We only have about a six hour window of nice upslope before it becomes more frontal. I think the max snow totals from this will end up being in the 4-6/7" range, with maybe an isolated 8-9" amount in the luckiest of locations. Map to come....

Thanks Rb.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 20, 2015 8:20 am

RGEM - SR Models Nice Storm -posted yesterday and to Rb's point that I am not buying all this WAA with a good snow pack from Tenn up to Maine that this now weaker storm needs to travel over - it is not some behemoth a storm with a strong S flow here peeps - if it was then I worry about rain but N&W of the city should be almost all snow imo.

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 3 SN_000-048_0000

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:07 am

Here's my first-call:

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 3 Feb_2110

For areas in the red box, there will be mixing, but seeing as though that is also where the best upglide will be focused heavier snowfall rates will be present longer than elsewhere. This should compensate for any mixing or changeover that does occur.


Last edited by rb924119 on Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:16 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:10 am

There's no map.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:16 am

@SNOW MAN wrote:There's no map.

Really? It's showing up on my screen....

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Post by Analog96 Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:24 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@SNOW MAN wrote:There's no map.

Really? It's showing up on my screen....
Here too.

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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:25 am

Not yet.
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Post by Grselig Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:40 am

@SNOW MAN wrote:Not yet.

weird. I see the map. I can't complain about 4-7 but would love to hit that 7 mark
Thanks RB
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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:41 am

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 3 Screen11

Better Snow Man?

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