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1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm

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Post by Artechmetals Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:43 am

Pro mets only seeing 1 to 3 , are they not seeing something you are RB ? I really love your analysis . Seems like they are seeing more mixing and why ?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:45 am

WOW at the 12z NAM!!!!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_030_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_045_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_054_precip_ptot.gif


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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:46 am

@rb924119 wrote:1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 4 Screen11

Better Snow Man?

No I'm still not seeing it and believe me I'm dying to see what snow fall amounts you have for my area. lol.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:47 am

Coming up on my phone but not my computer. Besides having issues loading or refreshing threads today's anyone else?
Map looks good rb and you will verify

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:50 am

NAM is beautiful sorry Frank

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:55 am

@SNOW MAN wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 4 Screen11

Better Snow Man?

No I'm still not seeing it and believe me I'm dying to see what snow fall amounts you have for my area. lol.

Well then your computer's just dumb lmfao jk You're in the 4-7" isolated 8" amounts, with mixing likely for you. After the NAM, though; yeeshhhhh I may need to up the totals if the rest of the models jump on board lmao

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:56 am

@amugs wrote:Coming up on my phone but not my computer. Besides having issues loading or refreshing threads today's anyone else?
Map looks good rb and you will verify

Thanks Mugs!! We'll see how it goes. If needed, I'll update again tonight or early tomorrow morning.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:05 am

@Artechmetals wrote:Pro mets only seeing 1 to 3 , are they not seeing something you are RB ? I really love your analysis . Seems like they are seeing more mixing and why ?

Thanks!! Uh, I don't know exactly why, but they and myself are not all that far off from each other. You're just inside the 4-7" line on my map, so it's close. My thoughts are that the initial surge should easily be strong enough produce inch per hour snowfall rates at times for at least a few hours, probably closer to four or five before it starts to change over. Add that to the fact that the ground is significantly below freezing and the snow will be at a higher (i.e. 12 or 14:1 ratio at the start, decreasing to 10 or 8:1 right before the changeover) and I think an inch or two either side of four inches seems like a safe bet. That's why I have that red box; because even the sections in the lighter blue that are within that red box are still in the running for the 4-7" category. I just wasn't confident enough to include them just yet. My expectations would be to see the Weather Service offices bump amounts slightly higher with future packages, especially if other models today trend like the 12z NAM just did.

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Post by Artechmetals Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:11 am

Thanks RB !! One other question will wsw or wwa adviseries go up?
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:13 am

rgemmmmmm!!!!
1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 4 I_nw_r1_EST_2015022012_029
1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 4 I_nw_r1_EST_2015022012_033
1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 4 I_nw_r1_EST_2015022012_035
1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 4 I_nw_r1_EST_2015022012_037
1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 4 I_nw_r1_EST_2015022012_039
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:16 am

12hrs of snow followed by a few hrs of rain mix nyc, doc rb cp never changes over.wow!!!!
1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 4 I_nw_r1_EST_2015022012_041
1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 4 I_nw_r1_EST_2015022012_043
1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 4 I_nw_r1_EST_2015022012_047
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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:16 am

@Artechmetals wrote:Thanks RB !! One other question will wsw or wwa adviseries go up?

I would expect advisories only, and they probably won't be up until after the 4pm update today or overnight.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:22 am

OMGGGGGG 12z NAM clown map:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:22 am

And by the looks of it the REGM may be fairly close to this as well....Idk though; I don't have it yet.

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:26 am

Nice rgem holding strong here looks great. Colder it seems

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:27 am

Wow lucky all you inlanders still looking like only a few inchs here at most, not seeing much excitement here, maybe I am wrong but its a close call on all those models.
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:27 am

@rb924119 wrote:OMGGGGGG 12z NAM clown map:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX
rb that's a horrible map for li and c nj. do not think that is right. most areas are going to get 4" from this storm
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:28 am

I like the latest RGEM, I will take 5-6 in a heartbeat, which is what wxbell shows, not sure if that's all precip types though.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:30 am

1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 4 R9_RN_S9_SN_G9_PE_Z9_FR_METE_0000_NewYork

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:30 am

Right now I am envisioning my final snow map to orient the 4-8" swath over southern NY - eastern PA - NW NJ. Start time looks the same to me. I do not see any models bringing precip. in during the morning tomorrow. Looks like after 12pm

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:32 am

@algae888 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:OMGGGGGG 12z NAM clown map:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX
rb that's a horrible map for li and c nj. do not think that is right. most areas are going to get 4" from this storm

I agree. I think it's overdone on the higher end and underdone on the lower end by equal amounts.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:33 am

Here's the 12z RGEM snow total map based on 10:1

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022012/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:36 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:OMGGGGGG 12z NAM clown map:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX
rb that's a horrible map for li and c nj. do not think that is right. most areas are going to get 4" from this storm

I agree. I think it's overdone on the higher end and underdone on the lower end by equal amounts.

Hence why I called it a clown map lmao

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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:37 am

BTW you guys are all doing an unbelievable job with this storm. I have not been able to look at this in the detail I want so I am going to keep it quite for now. There is no doubt the colder trend is in play here.

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:38 am

rgem snow map
1st Call Snow Map, February 21st-22nd Storm - Page 4 Rgem_asnow_us_15
niceeee!!!!
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