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Final Call Snow Map - February 21st

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 20, 2015 6:27 pm

A plume of moisture is going to travel from the south-central portion of the U.S. right into our area during the day on Saturday. Due to very cold low level temps, our form of precipitation to start will be snow. Once the surface low cuts to our N&W, some areas along the immediate coast will gradually turn to ice and then rain. While there may be a good amount of rain that falls, including the NYC Metro area, the front-end thump of snow I am still expecting to be pretty heavy. There is a lot of qpf involved with this system. The jackpot zone, the area in red, is where I had the greatest difficulty. I can easily see it being expanded or shifted a little south and east. Areas near the red zone that are in blue should expect isolated snow amounts greater than 6".

Final Call Snow Map - February 21st 10995923_891764040875356_5811851296919667929_n

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 20, 2015 6:36 pm

In making this map I was looking at many different things. Namely, H925, H850, and surface temps, as well as, where the greatest H7 VV's (vertical velo's) are likely to set up. The H5 energy is going to orient itself from NE to SW and those just north of the baroclinic zone will see the greatest frontogenesis.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 6:40 pm

Nice Frank!! I was similar in my thoughts, as you'll see later on when I post it. Great job, though, buddy!!!

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 6:53 pm

Just an observation, both jets that our developing precipitation shield finds itself coupled to are slightly stronger than what they were modeled to be. I would expect this to start becoming apparent in the precipitation field as we progress through the night, and to watch this become slightly juicier than modeled.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:12 pm

Just another observation, the main piece of H5 energy (that is just now in north-central Colorado as seen in current WV-water vapor imagery and the SPC Meso-analysis page) that will be partly responsible for inducing weak surface cyclogenesis during this event is actually slightly north of where it was being modeled for this time. Based on this, I am thinking that we will see a slight northward jog with the axis of heaviest precipitation. However, the development of the H3 jet structure will be the second key player in the evolution of this precipitation axis. With a slightly further north H5 inducing a slightly further north surface cyclone, this should also allow the jet to position itself slightly further north as well, because of its direct link to the temperature gradients from the surface and throughout the remainder of the column. We shall see, though. There is a good chance I'm wrong on this, so don't get upset if you're on a boundary between a higher set of totals and a lower one. This is simply something that I believe I'm seeing right now, and what I think will happen based on my observation. Time will ultimately be the true teller.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:14 pm

Looks like another nice 3-6 / 4-7"event in my neck of the woods.


Last edited by NjWeatherGuy on Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:29 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:22 pm

Thanks for the updates going to A.C. on sunday and we have relatives from orange county ny going it looks to be ok because the storm is out of here early sunday morning
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Post by snow247 Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:37 pm

Great map Frank! I am probably not going to make map tonight due to some computer problems. But I am thinking 3-6 for NYC and PHI, 6-10 starting just NW of the cities, and 2-4 on LI and most of SNJ.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:39 pm

So hard to ignore the NAM in the upper end 6" but as always likely overdone... Much more likely 3 or 4 inches  as per GFS and others.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:47 pm

GEM LAM WHOA!!
See if it verifies

Final Call Snow Map - February 21st Post-55-0-50830300-1424478544

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 20, 2015 8:36 pm

@amugs wrote:GEM LAM WHOA!!
See if it verifies

Final Call Snow Map - February 21st Post-55-0-50830300-1424478544
Wow, agrees with NAM
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 20, 2015 8:39 pm

Mentions NYC and North Shore of LI in 3-6". 2-4 for south shore.
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/top-videos/video/2430839568001/storm-to-blast-midwest-northeast-with-snow-and-ice?autoStart=true
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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:06 pm

My final call will be out in about 30-45 minutes. Please believe me that IT WILL NOT CONTAIN ANY 00z data, but will only be based on preceding data and my observations from earlier.

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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:07 pm

Yay I love snow. We all do on this site but the potential here for snow has me pretty excited. Just think about how recently we were thinking no snow for the area. Now many of us are talking about a potential of at least 3. That is a huge victory for us.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:09 pm

Holy crap 00z NAM

Final Call Snow Map - February 21st NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f24

Final Call Snow Map - February 21st NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f25

Final Call Snow Map - February 21st NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f26

Final Call Snow Map - February 21st NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f27

Final Call Snow Map - February 21st NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f28

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:11 pm

Final Call Snow Map - February 21st NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f29

Final Call Snow Map - February 21st NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f30


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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:12 pm

Final Call Snow Map - February 21st NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f31

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:13 pm

Final Call Snow Map - February 21st NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f33

NYC is about 6 inches of snow this run.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:18 pm

Final Call Snow Map - February 21st Post-692-0-11993400-1424485263

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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:19 pm

Im not an expert like you guys but I do know we cant fully trust not a model. If Nam says 6" then we should expect 4"

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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:21 pm

Amazing how if Nam is correct then we trended so far south HV looses out to the city.

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:23 pm

well that looks cold. Most of the precip falls when temps are below freezing.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:43 pm

NAM has me 6+ there, beautiful, man I hate when it does this, cant wait fot RGEM and GFS
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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:46 pm

2004 its the Nam lets wait for other models but we should get a decent snow up here.

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:53 pm

NWS Upton:
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE NO CAD FROM A HIGH TO THE
NORTH...PROMOTING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY
COLD TEMPS PRECEDING THE EVENT...AND EVEN SW WINDS MIGHT NOT DO MUCH
TO HELP SURFACE WARMING AS THEY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND ARRIVING OFF
OF A SNOW PACK. FREEZING RAIN COULD THEREFORE STILL OCCUR WITH 2M
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
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