Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
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jmanley32
Vinnydula
oldtimer
mancave25
jimv45
2004blackwrx
aiannone
amugs
snow247
skinsfan1177
NjWeatherGuy
rb924119
Frank_Wx
17 posters
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Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
A plume of moisture is going to travel from the south-central portion of the U.S. right into our area during the day on Saturday. Due to very cold low level temps, our form of precipitation to start will be snow. Once the surface low cuts to our N&W, some areas along the immediate coast will gradually turn to ice and then rain. While there may be a good amount of rain that falls, including the NYC Metro area, the front-end thump of snow I am still expecting to be pretty heavy. There is a lot of qpf involved with this system. The jackpot zone, the area in red, is where I had the greatest difficulty. I can easily see it being expanded or shifted a little south and east. Areas near the red zone that are in blue should expect isolated snow amounts greater than 6".
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
In making this map I was looking at many different things. Namely, H925, H850, and surface temps, as well as, where the greatest H7 VV's (vertical velo's) are likely to set up. The H5 energy is going to orient itself from NE to SW and those just north of the baroclinic zone will see the greatest frontogenesis.
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
Nice Frank!! I was similar in my thoughts, as you'll see later on when I post it. Great job, though, buddy!!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
Just an observation, both jets that our developing precipitation shield finds itself coupled to are slightly stronger than what they were modeled to be. I would expect this to start becoming apparent in the precipitation field as we progress through the night, and to watch this become slightly juicier than modeled.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
Just another observation, the main piece of H5 energy (that is just now in north-central Colorado as seen in current WV-water vapor imagery and the SPC Meso-analysis page) that will be partly responsible for inducing weak surface cyclogenesis during this event is actually slightly north of where it was being modeled for this time. Based on this, I am thinking that we will see a slight northward jog with the axis of heaviest precipitation. However, the development of the H3 jet structure will be the second key player in the evolution of this precipitation axis. With a slightly further north H5 inducing a slightly further north surface cyclone, this should also allow the jet to position itself slightly further north as well, because of its direct link to the temperature gradients from the surface and throughout the remainder of the column. We shall see, though. There is a good chance I'm wrong on this, so don't get upset if you're on a boundary between a higher set of totals and a lower one. This is simply something that I believe I'm seeing right now, and what I think will happen based on my observation. Time will ultimately be the true teller.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
Looks like another nice 3-6 / 4-7"event in my neck of the woods.
Last edited by NjWeatherGuy on Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:29 pm; edited 1 time in total
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
Thanks for the updates going to A.C. on sunday and we have relatives from orange county ny going it looks to be ok because the storm is out of here early sunday morning
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
Great map Frank! I am probably not going to make map tonight due to some computer problems. But I am thinking 3-6 for NYC and PHI, 6-10 starting just NW of the cities, and 2-4 on LI and most of SNJ.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
So hard to ignore the NAM in the upper end 6" but as always likely overdone... Much more likely 3 or 4 inches  as per GFS and others.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
GEM LAM WHOA!!
See if it verifies
See if it verifies
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MugsÂ
AKA:King:Â Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
Wow, agrees with NAMamugs wrote:GEM LAM WHOA!!
See if it verifies
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
Mentions NYC and North Shore of LI in 3-6". 2-4 for south shore.
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/top-videos/video/2430839568001/storm-to-blast-midwest-northeast-with-snow-and-ice?autoStart=true
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/top-videos/video/2430839568001/storm-to-blast-midwest-northeast-with-snow-and-ice?autoStart=true
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
My final call will be out in about 30-45 minutes. Please believe me that IT WILL NOT CONTAIN ANY 00z data, but will only be based on preceding data and my observations from earlier.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
Yay I love snow. We all do on this site but the potential here for snow has me pretty excited. Just think about how recently we were thinking no snow for the area. Now many of us are talking about a potential of at least 3. That is a huge victory for us.
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
Holy crap 00z NAM
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
_________________
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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
NYC is about 6 inches of snow this run.
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
Im not an expert like you guys but I do know we cant fully trust not a model. If Nam says 6" then we should expect 4"
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
Amazing how if Nam is correct then we trended so far south HV looses out to the city.
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
well that looks cold. Most of the precip falls when temps are below freezing.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
NAM has me 6+ there, beautiful, man I hate when it does this, cant wait fot RGEM and GFS
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
2004 its the Nam lets wait for other models but we should get a decent snow up here.
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
NWS Upton:
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE NO CAD FROM A HIGH TO THE
NORTH...PROMOTING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY
COLD TEMPS PRECEDING THE EVENT...AND EVEN SW WINDS MIGHT NOT DO MUCH
TO HELP SURFACE WARMING AS THEY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND ARRIVING OFF
OF A SNOW PACK. FREEZING RAIN COULD THEREFORE STILL OCCUR WITH 2M
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE NO CAD FROM A HIGH TO THE
NORTH...PROMOTING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY
COLD TEMPS PRECEDING THE EVENT...AND EVEN SW WINDS MIGHT NOT DO MUCH
TO HELP SURFACE WARMING AS THEY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND ARRIVING OFF
OF A SNOW PACK. FREEZING RAIN COULD THEREFORE STILL OCCUR WITH 2M
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
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