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Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:55 am

@algae888 wrote:look at what nam did with snowfall from 00z to 6z. any concerns?
Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 Namconus_asnow_us_11
6z
Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 Namconus_asnow_us_13
00z

No.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:56 am

It's 23° here already up 22° in 3 hours my concern its warming up fast
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Post by lglickman1 Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:56 am

par for the winter i guess, snow amounts .5" to 6", models once again cant figure it out even the day of the event

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:56 am

@algae888 wrote:look at what nam did with snowfall from 00z to 6z. any concerns?
Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 Namconus_asnow_us_11
6z
[img]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015022106/namconus_asnow_us_11.png[/img
6z
00z" />
Probably just a burp run. Let's see what the 12z N A M has to say in a few minutes. I give the RGEM much more credence inside 24 hours anyway.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:04 am

Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 RAD_MOS_STATE_NY_WINTER_ANI

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:07 am

nam is coming in colder and further south cuts qpf for n/w areas
Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 Nam_namer_015_850_temp_mslp_precip
Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 Namconus_apcpn_us_6
Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 Namconus_asnow_us_7
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:10 am

Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f15

Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f20

Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 NAM_925mbHgtT_ne_f15

Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 NAM_925mbHgtT_ne_f20

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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:11 am

It's the NAM lol, not concerned.
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:13 am

actually the nam is much colder if we can just get rid of that warm nose at 925 it would be a great run for nyc and li
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:14 am

Ice is becoming, once again, a concern of mine. While 850 temps are cold, 925 temps are trying to warm up as early as 7pm this afternoon. Could be a snow to ice event.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:17 am

Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 Update10

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Post by oldtimer Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:18 am

19* Up 5* last hour Hope precep gets in here quickly

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:19 am

Concerns for sure, I don't believe anything this winter until after it happens.
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Post by Vinnydula Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:20 am

Up to 20
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:22 am

It has to get here quick imo temps are rising quickly
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Post by Vinnydula Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:23 am

It was 10 and hr ago
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:27 am

Why are temps rebounding? Well the late October sun is up the air mass is still a cold dense arctic mass or air. Crap 19* and 22* and people are concerned. if it was 28* then you may have a bit of a point. Clouds starting to roll in and temps level off.
This is going to be another fun afternoon and night nowcasting.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:30 am

@amugs wrote:Why are temps rebounding? Well the late October sun is up the air mass is still a cold dense arctic mass or air. Crap 19* and 22* and people are concerned. if it was 28* then you may have a bit of a point. Clouds starting to roll in and temps level off.
This is going to be another fun afternoon and night nowcasting.

Amugs I understand your point. What I'm saying is I got up it was 1° at approx 530 this morning now its 930 and its 26° 4 hours 25° that's my concern and we have hours before the storm arrives this is my nowcasting concerns
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:31 am

Like doc said earlier winds aloft at H5 are westerly. However, they're southwesterly from the H85 and H925 levels. That's why temps are warming rather dramatically. That said, it's actually perfect temps for snow growth. Ratios will remain around 10:1

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:39 am

I do not believe surface temps are our concern as temps will wet bulb once snow starts. big concern is 925's. if 0*c pushes north (and it is modeled to do so) then we get several inches of snow turning to ice/ rain. still believe most of us get 4" of snow from this
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:49 am

Clouds moving in, holding steady at 12* here, maybe ratios will be good during the first few hours of precip?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:51 am

Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 Northeast_loop

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:51 am

@snow247 wrote:Clouds moving in, holding steady at 12* here, maybe ratios will be good during the first few hours of precip?

Gotta see how temps are when precip gets here. 12 degrees now is meaningless.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:53 am

27° here cloudy now
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:03 am

12z rgem

Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 I_nw_r1_EST_2015022112_012

Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 I_nw_r1_EST_2015022112_013

Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 I_nw_r1_EST_2015022112_015

Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 2 I_nw_r1_EST_2015022112_017

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