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Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22

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Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 3 Empty Re: Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:05 am

Starting ahead of schedule maybe

Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 3 Inxr1kphla_h

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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:08 am

wow RGEM looked pretty good for N half of LI

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:11 am

rgem at 1am
Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 3 Rgem_asnow_us_6


Last edited by algae888 on Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:14 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:12 am

trending like s/e pa c/nj nyc and li get more snow than n/w areas. we shall see
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:14 am

@algae888 wrote:trending like  s/e pa c/nj nyc and li get more snow than n/w areas. we shall see

Yup.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:26 am

Morris county now under a WSW. Thought they should have extended out the rest of northern jersey though.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:33 am

I'm just in an advisory
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:35 am

Tony Gigi says models are too warm.


WE ARE EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING A SLICE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT 12Z SOUNDINGS VS MODEL PROJECTIONS, IF
ANYTHING MODELING ERRORS ARE TOO WARM. THE NAM VERIFIED THE BEST
WITH THE QPF PROJECTIONS THRU 12Z AND ITS WETTEST
, DRIEST ECMWF
VERIFIED THE POOREST.
LATEST NAM/RAP/HRRR ARE EITHER SNOWIER OR
SLOWER TO BRING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. SO IN THAT NEW WARNING
SLICE, IF WE ARE TOO HEAVY WITH THE SNOW, CHANCES ARE WE MAY BE
TOO LIGHT ON THE ICE.

THIS ALSO BRINGS THE GRADIENT UNCERTAINTY TO THE I295 CORRIDOR IN
SWRN NJ. WE WILL SEE WHAT ALL OF THE 12Z MODELS SHOW BEFORE
DECIDING IF A FURTHER SEWD EXPANSION IS NEEDED THERE TOO.

Mt Holly Met

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:36 am

50-75 N&W radius of NYC looks to be the jackpot zone?

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Post by keliza52 Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:40 am

Hackettstown is now under WSW for 4 -7 inches with some ice from noon today until 6 am tomorrow.


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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:46 am

Boy that's a sharp cutoff in the HV. Why am I sensing a scroo job here. Paranoia?
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:49 am

Yes, that gives us around three.I'm getting in my car and driving down to Mahwah, closer to the 6 inch zone,LOL!

Still, precip building on radar to our west and NW, a good sign.
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:49 am

I've been really confident that here on LI the cold would hold on longer than expected and we would overperform snow wise. But my temp. went from 6 degrees at 7 a.m. to 21 at 10:30. This is making me somewhat nervous. A 15 degree warm up in 3.5 hours.

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Post by Guest Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:52 am

syosnow94 wrote:I've been really confident that here on LI the cold would hold on longer than expected and we would overperform snow wise.  But my temp. went from 6 degrees at 7 a.m. to 21 at 10:30.  This is making me somewhat nervous.  A 15 degree warm up in 3.5 hours.  

...Never mind. Now it's 26 degrees. 20 degree temperature rise in under 4 hours and no precip yet!!!! I think LI gets next to nothing now WTF!! Mad Mad Mad

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:53 am

Syo that's what I was saying earlier but now it hasn't moved and like Frank said 28 to 32° is perfect snow growth
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:54 am

@amugs wrote:Tony Gigi says models are too warm.


WE ARE EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING A SLICE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT 12Z SOUNDINGS VS MODEL PROJECTIONS, IF
ANYTHING MODELING ERRORS ARE TOO WARM. THE NAM VERIFIED THE BEST
WITH THE QPF PROJECTIONS THRU 12Z AND ITS WETTEST
, DRIEST ECMWF
VERIFIED THE POOREST.
LATEST NAM/RAP/HRRR ARE EITHER SNOWIER OR
SLOWER TO BRING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. SO IN THAT NEW WARNING
SLICE, IF WE ARE TOO HEAVY WITH THE SNOW, CHANCES ARE WE MAY BE
TOO LIGHT ON THE ICE.

THIS ALSO BRINGS THE GRADIENT UNCERTAINTY TO THE I295 CORRIDOR IN
SWRN NJ. WE WILL SEE WHAT ALL OF THE 12Z MODELS SHOW BEFORE
DECIDING IF A FURTHER SEWD EXPANSION IS NEEDED THERE TOO.

Mt Holly Met
I think they will expand the WSW to encompass the rest of northern jersey. I'm hearing the 12z GFS is coming in colder!!!
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:59 am

yes gfs is colder nyc and just north in the jackpot. jman good for us.
Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 3 Gfs_asnow_us_5
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:01 am

still like my prediction of 4" for most if not all of our area with some mixing at the end. also high end 6+ in some areas. exactly how far north the mixing gets is up in the air atm. trends have been south today though.


Last edited by algae888 on Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:02 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:02 am

Just a wall of white heading our way

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:06 am

@docstox12 wrote:Yes, that gives us around three.I'm getting in my car and driving down to Mahwah, closer to the 6 inch zone,LOL!

Still, precip building on radar to our west and NW, a good sign.

Signing off till tonight Doc, these models as usual this year have my head spinning.

I'm going with Franks last map and leaving it at that.

BTW Doc or anyone else for that matter, I'm in Mahwah tomorrow, my wife and I are taking one of my sons and his girlfriend to lunch. Can you recommend someplace?
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:07 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Boy that's a sharp cutoff in the HV. Why am I sensing a scroo job here. Paranoia?

I think were still good for 6-10, our area does really well with these warmer storms.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:11 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Yes, that gives us around three.I'm getting in my car and driving down to Mahwah, closer to the 6 inch zone,LOL!

Still, precip building on radar to our west and NW, a good sign.

Signing off till tonight Doc, these models as usual this year have my head spinning.

I'm going with Franks last map and leaving it at that.

BTW Doc or anyone else for  that matter, I'm in Mahwah tomorrow, my wife and I are taking one of my sons and his girlfriend to lunch. Can you recommend someplace?

CP, two nice places, Mahwah Bar and Grill and The Mason Jar, both on Route 202.

Higher end place is the River Palm Terrace on 202 as well, a great steak house but EXPENSIVE. Great food though. Need reservations there.

Franks maps are always spot on for our area. "In Frank We Trust!"

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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:11 am

wow, I went from 12 to 19 in an hour.
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Post by jimv45 Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:20 am

Cp radar looks good! Try Sonny tony's Italian restaurant very good in Mahwah was there a year ago! Another good place is Roxanne's

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:20 am

925's have not budged to much since 7am...
Updated Final Call Snow Map, Observations Thread 2/21-2/22 - Page 3 925mb_sf
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