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Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event

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Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  Empty Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 26, 2015 7:09 pm

This was the post I put out earlier today.

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  Gfs_z500_vort_namer_18

If you look at where we are in the eastern US, we are wedged between a southeast ridge and the PV to our north. For the last couple of days models have been showing a storm track to our north resulting in warmer temps for the storm early next week. The recent trend, however, is calling for CAD (cold air damming) event. Due to the strong amplification of the -EPO, we are seeing the PV get further south and allow the cold to hang around over our area longer. Where the baroclinic zone sets up is where the best VV's will be.

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f87

The GFS shows substantial snow for our area early Monday morning.

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f96

The euro is a little warmer but still brings snow.

I'll monitor the upper level trends and continue to keep you all in the loop. A 1st call snow map may even be issued as early as tomorrow afternoon. My initial thoughts are a 2-4 inch snowfall area wide.

Stay tuned.

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 26, 2015 7:12 pm

Bernie said he thinks this storm will move further south over the coming days and the heavier totals will need to be moved south into NYC and even a couple inches into DC.
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/current-weather-news/video/3901417444001/snow-to-spread-from-chicago-to?autoStart=true
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 26, 2015 7:15 pm

This is still not the greatest look since the surface low is probably still north of us, but you can see its much better if you compare it from my earlier post today. There is less interaction between the PV and the mid-level trough so upper air energy is digging much more into our area. This seems like a classic CAD event. Right now I'm liking 1-3/2-4" snows with potential for more. As we get closer I can see models trending wetter with this system once they recognize the thermal gradient between the SE Ridge and the PV.

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  Gfs_z500_vort_namer_17

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 26, 2015 8:59 pm

21z srefs

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f78

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f81

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 26, 2015 9:54 pm

00z NAM

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f78

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f81

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Post by Guest Thu Feb 26, 2015 10:03 pm

Comparing these different models, it looks like a solid .50 inches QPF over most of the area with the majority falling during the coldest part of the day from midnight Sunday thru Monday morning. Good trends!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:35 am

06z GFS has almost all rain even well inland with this threat. That seems a bit off from the other model runs, thoughts?
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:39 am

[quote="jmanley32"]06z GFS has almost all rain even well inland with this threat.  That seems a bit off from the other model runs, thoughts?[/quote
6z GFS isn't all rain. It's about 2-4" for NYC, 4-5" northward
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:40 am

from what wxbell it shows that.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:42 am

@jmanley32 wrote:06z GFS has almost all rain even well inland with this threat.  That seems a bit off from the other model runs, thoughts?

I'm not seeing that.

Surface and mid levels seem to support snow for everything north of NYC and even NYC pretty much all snow.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:42 am

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  Gfs_pt12

breakdown of p-types, almost no frozen except far NW
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:47 am

Wow, they must be seeing something totally different than NWS.NWS is solidly all snow for me while this weatherbell shows mostly rain.Somebody's gonna get egg on their face with these totally different scenarios.
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:49 am

If Nantucket and Block Island shows all snow, we are good lmao
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  Stormt24
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:34 am

Jman those weather Bell maps are horrendous. 12Z nam shows 3 to 6 inches for almost the entire area may have some mixing issues for the tail end of the storm. all maps I've seen for the 6 Z GFS have 2 to 4 inches of snow for New York City area
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:39 am

It amazes me that even the breakdown map is bad, its seriously a problem they need to fix.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:42 am

NWS maps are off while upton snows 1-2 to as much as 2-3 if you look at map alex posted direcrtly adjacent or near areas have 3-4 or 4-6 lol.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:52 am

12z GFS

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f66

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f69

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f72

Decent amount of snow and a pretty wet run from the GFS

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:55 am

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  MgTaZqc

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:02 am

positive for this storm that most of the snow is going to fall during the night if not all of it which should maximize snowfall accumulations
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:10 am

Yea and i also think SFC temps are a bit off. We have a decent snowpack and are coming out of an arctic airmass with new snowfall....therefore i doubt the surface warms as much as the GFS shows. NAM is doing best with sfc temps ATM i believe
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:35 am

Not good runs for me at all thought we were seeing 2-4 here
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:36 am

Yes even wxbell got this pretty right with heaviest over NYC and LI with 4-6, if it trends just a bit wetter may need WSW. Otherwise WWA probably tomorrow or early Sunday. It def looks on the maps like the northern and a small southern stream piece merged into a better area of precip over us, keep the wetter trend, although this is a decent moderate snow for at least some of us as GFS shows now.

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  Gfs_6h11
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:40 am

CMC came in with much less qpf, 2-4 inches in NYC, NW 1-3.
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:00 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:CMC came in with much less qpf, 2-4 inches in NYC, NW 1-3.

CMC is very cold though. Little better ratios
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:02 pm

12z CMC
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  10422110
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