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Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event

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oldtimer
billg315
2004blackwrx
Vinnydula
Fededle22
NjWeatherGuy
Dunnzoo
Quietace
snow247
amugs
sroc4
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rb924119
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jmanley32
aiannone
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Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 5 Empty Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event

Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:31 pm

One thing to keep a keen eye on is secondary coastal development with this thing. A good portion of the SREFs are now hinting at this (as was the RGEM and NAM, I believe I remember either Al or Mugs saying earlier), and if this occurs, those of us further north and west can expect to get shafted AGAIN by the dry slot that develops from the coastal transfer. Those near NYC and points east would cash in if this were to happen, because not only will it develop a northerly component in the low-level winds, and thus, a colder flow beneath the warm advection that is occurring above it, but it will also act to enhance the ascent in these regions via convergence and stronger upglide. This would lead to heavier precipitation rates. We will have to see how it goes, though.

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Post by snow247 Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:34 pm

wow NAM.

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Post by snow247 Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:35 pm

3"-6" for most, 6"+ just north and northwest of NYC on the 00z NAM wxbell snow map.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:42 pm

snow247 wrote:3"-6" for most, 6"+ just north and northwest of NYC on the 00z NAM wxbell snow map.

Can you post? Thanks!!

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Post by snow247 Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:44 pm

rb924119 wrote:
snow247 wrote:3"-6" for most, 6"+ just north and northwest of NYC on the 00z NAM wxbell snow map.

Can you post? Thanks!!

Am I allowed to post images from wxbell?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:45 pm

I'm pretty sure you can post images from anywhere as long as they're relevant lmao

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:49 pm

snow, yes and no. The copyright says you can share anything but Euro stuff, but here I share any of it. The owners would need to come here signup and we do not profit from it in anyway shape or form so its fine. I can do it if you do not feel comfortable.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:55 pm

Your fine. Post away.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:59 pm

Here, I got it from Instant Weather Maps:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM/2015022800/USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_057.gif

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:00 pm

North and west of 287 is a general 6-8" snowfall this run.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:06 pm

00z NAM clown map:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:07 pm

Kinda looks like my snow map but less snowier for southern areas,

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Kinda looks like my snow map but less snowier for southern areas,

Sure does, and more snowy for northern areas (outside of your 5-9" region). By the way, did you get my email last night?

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:18 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Kinda looks like my snow map but less snowier for southern areas,

Sure does, and more snowy for northern areas (outside of your 5-9" region). By the way, did you get my email last night?

Yes! I have not read it yet though. Would rather read when I know I have time. Looks like an awesome read and I'll find a way to attach it on here tomorrow.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:24 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Kinda looks like my snow map but less snowier for southern areas,

Sure does, and more snowy for northern areas (outside of your 5-9" region). By the way, did you get my email last night?

Yes! I have not read it yet though. Would rather read when I know I have time. Looks like an awesome read and I'll find a way to attach it on here tomorrow.

Ok, no worries!! I just wanted to make sure, that's all lol You know, I'm looking at the jet structure of this system and it is almost identical to the last one. I would not be surprised to see it under-achieve again based on that. I'd have to do some further investigating to see for sure, though.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:26 pm

If the jet streak is running along the northern periphery of the SE ridge I can see why the models that have more qpf are correct.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:27 pm

Srefs

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 5 SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f51

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 5 SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f54

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 5 SREF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

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Post by snow247 Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:31 pm

Quite an improvement:

NAM 00z:

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 5 Nam10

NAM 18z:

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 5 Nam18z10


Last edited by snow247 on Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:35 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by snow247 Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:34 pm

GFS time.
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:39 pm

GFS Rolling....

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:44 pm

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 5 29pt0gh

00z RGEM

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:46 pm

Light snow over the nnj area and out to LI and north from hr 45 and 48 on gfs

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:47 pm

Hr 51 mod snow in
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 5 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f51

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:47 pm

00z gfs

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 5 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f51

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 5 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f54

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 5 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:48 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:47 pm

GFS looks dry but cold

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:47 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 5 29pt0gh

00z RGEM

RGEM going HAM I see haha

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:48 pm

Mod and heavy snow hr 54
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 5 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f54

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