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Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event

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oldtimer
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:39 pm

Cmc in RGEM camp nice to see Cold and wet - bring it you fn canadians bring it!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:40 pm

So we have two camps:

1. Primary hangs on longer, mid levels warm, front end whop is the best we're going to get with maybe some backend, too.

2. Primary dissipates and secondary takes over. Colder scenario for southern areas and possibly no mixing involved.

Canadian guidance likes #2, while other models are leaning more on #1. Euro at 12z I would say was closer to #2.

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:41 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:So we have two camps:

1. Primary hangs on longer, mid levels warm, front end whop is the best we're going to get with maybe some backend, too.

2. Primary dissipates and secondary takes over. Colder scenario for southern areas and possibly no mixing involved.

Canadian guidance likes #2, while other models are leaning more on #1. Euro at 12z I would say was closer to #2.

Tomorrow's 12z guidance will tell all as to which camp we are leaning towards.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:41 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:That's 6+ inches for nyc per cmc

Madonne

RGEM/CMC have done well with precip types this year. VERY Interesting.

They have done very well with our winter storms this year, hence why I wait until RGEM is rolling lately.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:44 pm

Mugs I think it's still too far out for the rgem. Tomorrow night at 00z and Sunday 12z is best range for rgem I believe.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:46 pm

Hmmm, this is getting interesting if NAM/CMC are onto something.
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:49 pm

CMC
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 7 Cmc_sn10
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:52 pm

Frank going from Alex map which I already saw how do you feel its 6+ for NYC area when it only shows 5, are there ratios in that run?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:55 pm

Im told soundings show a warm layer at 925mb, so that map is right.

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Post by snow247 Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:58 pm

Ugh, the heavier snowfall is so far south than other models on the CMC, just can't win up here lol
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:58 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Mugs I think it's still too far out for the rgem. Tomorrow night at 00z and Sunday 12z is best range for rgem I believe.

Within range at 48 and gets into the kill zone at 24 so with that being said I see your point here. Point being it has been good even at this range we are at with storms this winter, better than most models which isn't saying much.

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Fededle22 Sat Feb 28, 2015 12:12 am

We are, once again, within 48 hours of the actual event and still no agreement with all of the models. What else is new with this winter season. It looks as though I could get anywhere from c-1" to 4-6".
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Post by Vinnydula Sat Feb 28, 2015 12:18 am

C-8" for everyone!!
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 12:26 am

don't forget last sat rgem had nyc staying all snow while nam had us changing over at 10pm. nam was right and may be a better model for this kind of event. still both look very good
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 28, 2015 1:33 am

00z EURO has 3"-6" areawide, possibly some 6"+ spots north of NYC.
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 4:25 am

6z nam wetter and colder waiting on maps. 6z rgem all of tri state area 6" of snow
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 7 Rgem_asnow_us_16
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 4:32 am

6z rgem and nam continue to form low over nj coastal waters.
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 7 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 7 Nam_namer_045_850_temp_mslp_precip
warmest nam gets. also precip now moves in quicker around 18z sunday over by 6z mon morning.
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Post by 2004blackwrx Sat Feb 28, 2015 4:35 am

Not up north of putnam.

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 4:47 am

@2004blackwrx wrote:Not up north of putnam.
well you are way north (mid hudson valley) and still 4-5" per rgem. no mixing issues for you.
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 4:49 am

@2004blackwrx wrote:Not up north of putnam.
nws forecast office for you is Albany?
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 4:55 am

storm now is 6hrs faster from 1pm sunday to 1am monday. yesterdays models were 7pm to 7am. so we will be fighting daylight and higher sun angle which may affect snow totals.
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 5:00 am

6z gfs is also colder and very dry compared to 00z
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 7 Gfs_namer_054_precip_ptot
6z
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 7 Gfs_namer_060_precip_ptot
00z
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 5:09 am

better map for rgem. 6-8" for parts on n/e nj and city. 3-6" area wide.
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 7 SN_000-048_0000
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Post by 2004blackwrx Sat Feb 28, 2015 5:34 am

Yes nws is Albany for me. I am in there most southern territory.

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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:42 am

Don't really want this to shift further south anymore or our northern posters will miss out yet again, I want everyone to get 6"+ from this lol. Could be the last chance.
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