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Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event

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oldtimer
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:48 am

NWS downgraded me from 3 to 5 to 2 to 4.They are buying the southward shift.
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:56 am

@docstox12 wrote:NWS downgraded me from 3 to 5 to 2 to 4.They are buying the southward shift.

We live in a small desert up here I'm convinced lol, this has happened with so many storms this winter and last. You can almost guarantee now that every storm that jackpots north of the city will shift south at the last minute.


Last edited by snow247 on Sat Feb 28, 2015 7:00 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:59 am

I would love it for everyone to get in on this but this time of year its harder and harder for me here to get snow will need it to shift south. This unfortunately has been the trend this season as of late with a southern shift . I think my area could be a battle ground for snow/rain and ice involved
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 28, 2015 7:17 am

@snow247 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:NWS downgraded me from 3 to 5 to 2 to 4.They are buying the southward shift.

We live in a small desert up here I'm convinced lol, this has happened with so many storms this winter and last. You can almost guarantee now that every storm that jackpots north of the city will shift south at the last minute.

It sure was true with Juno, a force field over the Hudson River, then that recent storm with that incredible dry slot.Sinking dry air,LOL!

I would be upset if I was still living in Mahwah near you, but just 25 miles away in Monroe HV, everything is different due to elevation and distance from the massive heat of NYC.With all of these screwball storm situations, this next storm should put me above 60 inches for the season.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 28, 2015 7:20 am

@docstox12 wrote:NWS downgraded me from 3 to 5 to 2 to 4.They are buying the southward shift.

They must be if of ignoring the 6z nam then because it had us over 6 inches. This is another who knows but it wouldn't shock me if we received less QPf. Every storm does the opposite this year.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 28, 2015 7:22 am

If I was investing in a southward shift, I would go long.That trend is set in stone this year.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 28, 2015 7:23 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I would love it for everyone to get in on this but this time of year its harder and harder for me here to get snow will need it to shift south. This unfortunately has been the trend this season as of late with a southern shift . I think my area could be a battle ground for snow/rain and ice involved

Definitely going to be mixing issues according to NWS on this storm.Where,when....who knows!
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 28, 2015 7:24 am

Yea doc, huge difference in our snowpack being just a few miles away from eachother, I only have around 7-11 inches otg.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 28, 2015 7:32 am

I didn't hear any chatter about the 00z EURO peeps.......

http://www.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/00/snosums/0072/ECM_00_opUS_SF_0072.png

Based on 10:1

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 28, 2015 7:36 am

TWC predicting 4 to 8 inches for Sunday night Monday morning. The kiss of death of course I'm now resigned myself to 1 to 3 inches.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 28, 2015 7:38 am

00z EURO Ensemble total snowfall based on 10:

http://www.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/EN/00/snosums/0072/ECM_00_enUS_SF_0072.png

00z CMC total accumulated precipitation in inches:

http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/CAN/EN/00/pcpsums/0024/CAN_00_enUS_PS_0060.png

06z GFS Ensemble total snowfall based on 10:1

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/06/snosums/0048/GFS_06_enUS_SF_0066.png

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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 28, 2015 7:41 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:TWC predicting 4 to 8 inches for Sunday night Monday morning. The kiss of death of course I'm now resigned myself to 1 to 3 inches.

BACIO DI MORTE!!!

They must have meant that certain City i am not supposed to mention but have to right now, that has a winter storm watch for 4 to 7 inches,LOL
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 28, 2015 8:53 am

The short range models paint a very snowy picture. The globals, not so much.

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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 28, 2015 8:56 am

I'm waiting to see how the models go today, but at first glance from about I-195 north I don't see a whole lot of rain mixing in with this one. Maybe sleet and freezing rain for a bit in the middle, but my sense is that from CNJ to NNJ it is mostly a snow/frozen precip situation with the rain largely confined to SNJ or the southern tier of CNJ.
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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 28, 2015 8:59 am

My gut tells me it could be a good 3-6" storm for most from CNJ north with pockets of a couple inches more than that in spots in NNJ where less sleet/frz rain mixes.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:01 am

6z rgem was beautiful - hope this holds tonight at 00z

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 8 PT_PN_039_0000

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 8 PT_PN_042_0000

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 8 PT_PN_045_0000Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 8 PT_PN_048_0000

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:04 am

Yeah it would be better if it stayed snow for me through out tough call here.
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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:07 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:6z rgem was beautiful - hope this holds tonight at 00z

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 8 PT_PN_039_0000

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 8 PT_PN_042_0000

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 8 PT_PN_045_0000Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 8 PT_PN_048_0000

I like the cut of that model's jib
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:19 am

12z NAM

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 8 Nam_ptype_slp_neng_12


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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:21 am

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 8 Nam_ptype_slp_neng_13

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 8 Nam_ptype_slp_neng_14

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:24 am

3-6" for NYC

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 8 Nam_3hr_snow_acc_ne_14

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:24 am

sweet it does not changeover for me, Holy NAM batman! Looks like its gonna be good, like 06z?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:25 am

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 8 Nam_3hr_snow_acc_ne_15

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:26 am

Franky colder solution trend by most models. We need the rgem to hold tonight and tomorrow as nuts as this might sound to some but the way this winter is going it is the truth.
Rb euro looks like it is catching on in last night's run, wetter too.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:29 am

Big 00z runs tonight. Too bad I won't be here.

How about a quick 1 hour chat as 12z runs come in tomorrow beginning at 11am? We'll have the rgem/nam by then.

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