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Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event

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Post by rb924119 Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:36 pm

Here's 12z UKMET total precipitation in mm. There is still precipitation falling but this data does not go out any further, so add a few mm to whatever you see here. It is all snow from central NJ northward.

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:39 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Here's 12z UKMET total precipitation in mm. There is still precipitation falling but this data does not go out any further, so add a few mm to whatever you see here. It is all snow from central NJ northward.

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

Nice, 1/2 inch qpf for most of the area.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:46 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Here's 12z UKMET total precipitation in mm. There is still precipitation falling but this data does not go out any further, so add a few mm to whatever you see here. It is all snow from central NJ northward.

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

Nice, 1/2 inch qpf for most of the area.

NYC and LI closer to .5-.7, good trends, starting to look like a "winter storm" as Franks scroll says, never usually hear him use that term not sure what he means by that, usually Frank you say light, moderate snow or Godzilla etc. Never really heard you say winter storm.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:46 pm

To get an idea of how much progress the Sun-Mon storm made aloft, check out these images:

GFS 12z Wed:

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 2 Gfs_z500_vort_us_22

GFS 12z today:

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 2 Gfs_z500_vort_us_14

-Immediately you notice a more robust mid-level trough...sharper with some PV s/w interaction

-SE ridge is suppressed

-I would still expect this to trend wetter but the exact track of the surface low is still uncertain.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:48 pm

Lets see what Euro says, I would say king euro but none of the models have made king status imo this year.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:54 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:51 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Lets see what Euro says, I would say king euro but none of the models have made king status imo this year.

Truer words were never spoken
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Post by RJB8525 Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:52 pm

Bill/Lee thin most best bet is above i80/287 best chance for 2-4,probably right
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:56 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:Bill/Lee thin most best bet is above i80/287 best chance for 2-4,probably right

going by GFS that is not correct in all due respect to him, the system was further south on 12z GFS. But it is one run, we still have about 2 days to track before becomes very SR, those models may actually be king this year. Ha
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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 27, 2015 1:28 pm

Yea RJ everything I have heard or read Its north of NY city are in the 2-4 3-6 range will see got some time to change!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 27, 2015 1:33 pm

Remember rayno video yesterday said this would be more south
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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 27, 2015 1:39 pm

Rayno now said not going south its a north of NY City 3-6 most of the Hudson Valley 1-2 City then rain!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 27, 2015 1:46 pm

Let's see its Friday things this winter change as we get closer
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 27, 2015 1:51 pm

Euro is colder. 850's and 925's only go above freezing for a brief period around hr 66, then right back to below freezing. Surface temps warm up to mid- upper 30's along the coast into NE NJ and the L HV, but with the snow pack I cant imagine these numbers would verify. All trends so far today have this slightly colder. I think N and W of course have best shot for 2-4"/3-6" but everyone is still in play for a few inches.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 27, 2015 2:02 pm

One thing is for sure that we have CAD signature again the mid level do not to be warm or warm as this happens north of I 80. 850 line into cnj. These swfe have performed well this year and I am waiting on the rgem for some further guidance. Euro is disappointin with its temp profiles. No way in hell with cad signature, arctic air mass and snowpack from north Alabama to Italy is this going to hapen, sorry do not buy it one bit.
probably a snow to ice to snow scenerio I like last storm for nyc metro right now but I am leaning towards a more snow than ice event After this afternoons model runs. Plow able snowfall peeps.

On my phone issues at work with the site.

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:03 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Yea RJ everything I have heard or read Its north of NY city are in the 2-4  3-6 range will see got some time to change!
the best chance to see 6" of snow is east of the Hudson from nyc north through conn and even li. this will be where heaviest precip will be but also close to r/s line. areas off to the n/w will not see more than 3" as it stands right now as they will be all snow but much less qpf.
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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:13 pm

Ny City will not see 6'' mid-hudson valley into Conn has best shot!

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:15 pm

uptons snow map I disagree with this right now.
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 2 StormTotalSnowFcst
it is def. siding with euro as euro is the driest model and also most north. with such a poor record this year by euro and all other guidance showing colder more snow at coast wonder why nws and most other wx outlets putting so much faith in it.(euro)
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:15 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Ny City will not see 6'' mid-hudson valley into Conn has best shot!
east of Hudson!
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:16 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:Ny City will not see 6'' mid-hudson valley into Conn has best shot!
east of Hudson!

I disagree as well
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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:18 pm

will see north of 287 Ny city will be lucky to get 2or3

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:25 pm

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 2 Gfs_namer_072_precip_ptot
12z gfs
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 2 Nam_namer_069_precip_ptot
12z nam obv nws is discounting gfs and nam.
and cmc is similar with less qpf n and w more near coast where mixing issues will be. if coast stays all snow they will have more snow. all guidance trended colder today. we shall see.
nws qpf what models are they looking at?
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 2 StormTotalQPFFcst
obviously they are confused!
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:29 pm

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 2 I_nw_g1_EST_2015022712_061
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 2 I_nw_g1_EST_2015022712_063
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 2 I_nw_g1_EST_2015022712_065
nws def discounting cmc. ukie also like all other models except euro.
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:30 pm

euro is alone on this one
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:31 pm

I think for sure it may stay all snow for me cnj coast we have snowpack here from last three storms, ocean is very cold, and storm comes at night.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:32 pm

We have seen a few of these storms already this season with the surface low tracking to our north and west, but the low level cold helping to keep precip in the form of snow & ice. I would not expect anything much different with this system, except that I think it has the potential to be a little wetter than usual due to the strong thermal gradients caused by the sandwich between the PV and SE Ridge which also has a potent 700mb LLJ on top of the SE Ridge. I will post my 1st call snow map with thought's tonight at 7pm

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