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Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event

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Post by snow247 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:34 pm

NAM looks wetter to me through hour 51
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Post by snow247 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:34 pm

I'm going to start working on my snow map after I see the GFS.
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Post by snow247 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:35 pm

Looks great at hour 54
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:36 pm

as of guidance right now if orange co. is .42le then li and conn should be at least .6 le.
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 StormTotalQPFFcst
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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:37 pm

0c 850 line is actually 20 miles north through 54...precip intensity is similar to 12z yet more expansive

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Post by snow247 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:38 pm

Hour 57 a tad warmer than 12z, NEPA, NWNJ, and far NW areas get the most.

Nevermind, Mid HV does the best this run. Hoping for a trend south a bit.


Last edited by snow247 on Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:40 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:39 pm

NAM is warmer at 850 at 57 also by a good 20 miles in LI/conn area....0c line goes north of Conn shoreline into NE NJ. NYC above. Precip still more expansive

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Post by snow247 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:41 pm

3"-6" for most on the 18z NAM.
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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:43 pm

While 850s go above, the surface stays absolutely frigid....ACY is around 33-34 at the warmest frame (hr 66)So probably alot of mixed precip for southern areas then ice potential on NAM

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:43 pm

[quote="Quietace"]0c 850 line is actually 20 miles north through 54...precip intensity is similar to 12z yet more expansive [/quote
ace up to hr 54 850 line is actually south. it then jumps north at hr 57. also has more precip n and w.
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 Nam_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip
18z
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 Nam_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip
12z
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:46 pm

Ok, so it seems like surface temps stay cold. Not the issue. Now it seems like we need to worry about mid levels.
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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:46 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:0c 850 line is actually 20 miles north through 54...precip intensity is similar to 12z yet more expansive [/quote
ace up to hr 54 850 line is actually south. it then jumps north at hr 57. also has more precip n and w.
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 Nam_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip
18z
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 Nam_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip
12z
Actually not...warmer at 18z by about 20 miles or so...
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 Nam_z810
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 Nam_z811

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:49 pm

ace that is odd the nws site clearly has 850 line south at hr 54. weird
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:50 pm

18z NAM Precip:
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 Sfc_pc11
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 Sfc_pc12
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 Sfc_pc13
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 Sfc_pc13
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 Sfc_pc15

18z NAM SFC Temps:
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 Sfct_f10
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 Sfct_f11
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 Sfct_f12
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 Sfct_f13



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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:51 pm

@algae888 wrote:ace that is odd the nws site clearly has 850 line south at hr 54. weird
Its tough to judge off a resolution like on NCEP site especially on the full CONUS domain they only give you..

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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 27, 2015 4:02 pm

hearing that srefs are wetter. .5 to .75 area wide. mean is snow to ice to snow for nyc. obv n/w of nyc will see more snow (6") if storm trends wetter. however more precip will fall along coastal plain in any scenario.
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 27, 2015 4:04 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@algae888 wrote:ace that is odd the nws site clearly has 850 line south at hr 54. weird
Its tough to judge off a resolution like on NCEP site especially on the full CONUS domain they only give you..
ok i'll take your word for it.
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 27, 2015 4:11 pm

as of current forecast nws has me in s westchester co mixing after 4am on Monday. elmsford just north of 287 and 10 miles north of me is all snow. so jimv45 you are correct r/s line gets up to near 287 as is usually the case with most mixing storms. lets see if trends are warmer or colder the next few model runs. would be nice to get an area wide 6" snow fall to close out winter.
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 27, 2015 4:12 pm

Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 11037310
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Post by algae888 Fri Feb 27, 2015 4:17 pm

nws disco...
THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVING LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT PRECEDED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NAM WRF AND GGEM HINT AT A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW FORMING TO THE SOUTH SUN NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING RAIN/SNOW LINE...WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LI/NY METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD
KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL COLD WITH A NLY FLOW AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AND A
LIGHT ICE ACCRETION TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MON MORNING
WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...ALBEIT WARMER THAN IN RECENT WEEKS.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 27, 2015 4:41 pm

RGEM FTW! The RGEM is colder. SLP exiting to your S should mute mid level warmth. .5 to .75 could fall as snow.
Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event  - Page 3 P1_GZ_D5_PN_054_0000

With more to go

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 27, 2015 4:47 pm

I think cnj is going to be surprised again
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 27, 2015 4:59 pm

Al looks like we could be in a good spot as long as that R/S line does not hit us too bad, possibly 6, some models hinting at 5-7.5, would be awesome! Another Monday storm in coming!
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 27, 2015 5:03 pm

Looks to me similar to the last storm with 2 differences which should increase accumulations from last storm by 1 to 2".
1. Bulk of precip. falls at night allowing more snow accumulations.
2. Forecast QPF is about .25" more for this storm so the front end thump coiuld be more significant this time.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 27, 2015 5:07 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Looks to me similar to the last storm with 2 differences which should increase accumulations from last storm by 1 to 2".  
1.  Bulk of precip. falls at night allowing more snow accumulations.
2.  Forecast QPF is about .25" more for this storm so the front end thump coiuld be more significant this time.

agreed syo, and frank has said it could trend wetter, but lp track uncertain so we need nail that down, I think rayno is low on 1-3 for most of the area except lower HV with 3-6.
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