Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
+21
oldtimer
billg315
2004blackwrx
Vinnydula
Fededle22
NjWeatherGuy
Dunnzoo
Quietace
snow247
amugs
sroc4
jimv45
RJB8525
rb924119
skinsfan1177
algae888
docstox12
CPcantmeasuresnow
jmanley32
aiannone
Frank_Wx
25 posters
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
I think for sure it may stay all snow for me cnj coast we have snowpack here from last three storms, ocean is very cold, and storm comes at night.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
We have seen a few of these storms already this season with the surface low tracking to our north and west, but the low level cold helping to keep precip in the form of snow & ice. I would not expect anything much different with this system, except that I think it has the potential to be a little wetter than usual due to the strong thermal gradients caused by the sandwich between the PV and SE Ridge which also has a potent 700mb LLJ on top of the SE Ridge. I will post my 1st call snow map with thought's tonight at 7pm
Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
NAM looks wetter to me through hour 51
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
I'm going to start working on my snow map after I see the GFS.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
Looks great at hour 54
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
as of guidance right now if orange co. is .42le then li and conn should be at least .6 le.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
0c 850 line is actually 20 miles north through 54...precip intensity is similar to 12z yet more expansive
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
Hour 57 a tad warmer than 12z, NEPA, NWNJ, and far NW areas get the most.
Nevermind, Mid HV does the best this run. Hoping for a trend south a bit.
Nevermind, Mid HV does the best this run. Hoping for a trend south a bit.
Last edited by snow247 on Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:40 pm; edited 2 times in total
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
NAM is warmer at 850 at 57 also by a good 20 miles in LI/conn area....0c line goes north of Conn shoreline into NE NJ. NYC above. Precip still more expansive
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
3"-6" for most on the 18z NAM.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
While 850s go above, the surface stays absolutely frigid....ACY is around 33-34 at the warmest frame (hr 66)So probably alot of mixed precip for southern areas then ice potential on NAM
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
[quote="Quietace"]0c 850 line is actually 20 miles north through 54...precip intensity is similar to 12z yet more expansive [/quote
ace up to hr 54 850 line is actually south. it then jumps north at hr 57. also has more precip n and w.
18z
12z
ace up to hr 54 850 line is actually south. it then jumps north at hr 57. also has more precip n and w.
18z
12z
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
Ok, so it seems like surface temps stay cold. Not the issue. Now it seems like we need to worry about mid levels.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
Actually not...warmer at 18z by about 20 miles or so...algae888 wrote:Quietace wrote:0c 850 line is actually 20 miles north through 54...precip intensity is similar to 12z yet more expansive [/quote
ace up to hr 54 850 line is actually south. it then jumps north at hr 57. also has more precip n and w.
18z
12z
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
ace that is odd the nws site clearly has 850 line south at hr 54. weird
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
Its tough to judge off a resolution like on NCEP site especially on the full CONUS domain they only give you..algae888 wrote:ace that is odd the nws site clearly has 850 line south at hr 54. weird
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
hearing that srefs are wetter. .5 to .75 area wide. mean is snow to ice to snow for nyc. obv n/w of nyc will see more snow (6") if storm trends wetter. however more precip will fall along coastal plain in any scenario.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
ok i'll take your word for it.Quietace wrote:Its tough to judge off a resolution like on NCEP site especially on the full CONUS domain they only give you..algae888 wrote:ace that is odd the nws site clearly has 850 line south at hr 54. weird
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
as of current forecast nws has me in s westchester co mixing after 4am on Monday. elmsford just north of 287 and 10 miles north of me is all snow. so jimv45 you are correct r/s line gets up to near 287 as is usually the case with most mixing storms. lets see if trends are warmer or colder the next few model runs. would be nice to get an area wide 6" snow fall to close out winter.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
nws disco...
THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVING LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT PRECEDED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NAM WRF AND GGEM HINT AT A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW FORMING TO THE SOUTH SUN NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING RAIN/SNOW LINE...WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LI/NY METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD
KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL COLD WITH A NLY FLOW AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AND A
LIGHT ICE ACCRETION TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MON MORNING
WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...ALBEIT WARMER THAN IN RECENT WEEKS.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVING LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT PRECEDED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NAM WRF AND GGEM HINT AT A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW FORMING TO THE SOUTH SUN NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING RAIN/SNOW LINE...WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LI/NY METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD
KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL COLD WITH A NLY FLOW AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AND A
LIGHT ICE ACCRETION TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MON MORNING
WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...ALBEIT WARMER THAN IN RECENT WEEKS.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
RGEM FTW! The RGEM is colder. SLP exiting to your S should mute mid level warmth. .5 to .75 could fall as snow.
With more to go
With more to go
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
I think cnj is going to be surprised again
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
Al looks like we could be in a good spot as long as that R/S line does not hit us too bad, possibly 6, some models hinting at 5-7.5, would be awesome! Another Monday storm in coming!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
Looks to me similar to the last storm with 2 differences which should increase accumulations from last storm by 1 to 2".
1. Bulk of precip. falls at night allowing more snow accumulations.
2. Forecast QPF is about .25" more for this storm so the front end thump coiuld be more significant this time.
1. Bulk of precip. falls at night allowing more snow accumulations.
2. Forecast QPF is about .25" more for this storm so the front end thump coiuld be more significant this time.
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Re: Sunday Night-Monday Snow Event
syosnow94 wrote:Looks to me similar to the last storm with 2 differences which should increase accumulations from last storm by 1 to 2".
1. Bulk of precip. falls at night allowing more snow accumulations.
2. Forecast QPF is about .25" more for this storm so the front end thump coiuld be more significant this time.
agreed syo, and frank has said it could trend wetter, but lp track uncertain so we need nail that down, I think rayno is low on 1-3 for most of the area except lower HV with 3-6.
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