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Sunday-Monday Snowstorm - 2nd Call Snow Map

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:28 pm

southern conn gets crushed this run. hearing nyc turns to sleet by hr 27
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:31 pm

@docstox12 wrote:I'll take that 4 to 6 with no mixing!
doc me too! however I may mix but 4" still likely for me just ice at the end.  I have been saying for a few days now that anyplace that has a chance to get 6+" of snow is due north and north east of nyc that's where heaviest precip will be plus cold temps
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:35 pm

925mb freezing line goes up to SCT on this run at hr 27, then comes back down to NLI at 30
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:36 pm

nyc is .75 le if it's all snow that's 6+. ratio's prob. 8:1 or 10:1 hearing most of precip is over by the time it mixes. do not know if that is true.
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:39 pm

precip looks to be real light until after 4pm. so will be hard to stick on paved surfaces during day.
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:40 pm

Good thump, then mixes, then precip lightens up and we go back to snow. Very tricky. RGEM has done much better with precip type this year, so I am really interested to see the 0z run
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:42 pm

@algae888 wrote:nyc is .75 le if it's all snow that's 6+. ratio's prob. 8:1 or 10:1 hearing most of precip is over by the time it mixes. do not know if that is true.

.75 LE with the temps around 28-32 during the storm would probably be 7"-7.5" of snow for NYC.

North and northeast of NYC would be 7"-9" with temps in the low to mid 20's.

But this simply going off of the 00z NAM, so who knows if it's correct.


Last edited by snow247 on Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:46 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:42 pm

I still think we see at least 4-6 al, even NWS is on with this now.
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:43 pm

@aiannone wrote:Good thump, then mixes, then precip lightens up and we go back to snow. Very tricky. RGEM has done much better with precip type this year, so I am really interested to see the 0z run
alex nam has done better with these systems imo. remember last sat rgem had us all snow while nam had us changing over. think rgem is a little to cold. this set up is slightly different than last week as we will have a low trying to form south of li. so we shall see.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:44 pm

Any news for cnj coast frank said earlier it was tricky but trending in the right direction
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:45 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I still think we see at least 4-6 al, even NWS is on with this now.
agree. just want it to stay all snow. not sure that will happen
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:47 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Any news for cnj coast frank said earlier it was tricky but trending in the right direction
skins nam looks to warm for you. 2 or 3" tops. however if rgem is right maybe you could get a little more
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:48 pm

@snow247 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:nyc is .75 le if it's all snow that's 6+. ratio's prob. 8:1 or 10:1 hearing most of precip is over by the time it mixes. do not know if that is true.

.75 LE with the temps around 28-32 during the storm would probably be 7"-7.5" of snow for NYC.

North and northeast of NYC would be 7"-9" with temps in the low to mid 20's.

But this simply going off of the 00z NAM, so who knows if it's correct.
yes I agree
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Post by oldtimer Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:50 pm

Alex   What amount are we looking at now  The R/S line shifting N?

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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:51 pm

0z NAM Precip Types
Sunday-Monday Snowstorm - 2nd Call Snow Map - Page 5 10830810
Sunday-Monday Snowstorm - 2nd Call Snow Map - Page 5 11046710
Sunday-Monday Snowstorm - 2nd Call Snow Map - Page 5 15378510
Sunday-Monday Snowstorm - 2nd Call Snow Map - Page 5 19656410
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:51 pm

well 6-9, 6-8 right in line with peoples maps on here for the highest area, which does include us Al, but yeah its a close call on if there is a changeover or not. Still quite a bit of snow on the ground here so hoping that helps cooling. I can say one thing its plenty cold tonight, I do not see surfaces warming up that much tomorrow before it starts.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:53 pm

high res NAM coming in big 10pm already 5 inches around NYC.
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:55 pm

I was just speaking with a meteorologist and you can in fact have wet snow with 925mb just above freezing if the rest of the column is cold.
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:59 pm

rgem
Sunday-Monday Snowstorm - 2nd Call Snow Map - Page 5 I_nw_r1_EST_2015030100_018
look where low is trying to form
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:00 pm

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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:01 pm

4km NAM still screws people west of the Hudson River a bit but it looks good.
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:01 pm

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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:02 pm

I thought the RGEM doesn't come out until 11:30?
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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:02 pm

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:04 pm

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9pm still snow for nyc
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