NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

+38
Scullybutcher
deadrabbit79
Artechmetals
HEATMISER
dsvinos
Yschiff
weatherwatchermom
Biggin23
oldtimer
devsman
SoulSingMG
Quietace
mako460
bloc1357
Mac003
WeatherBob
Vinnydula
NjWeatherGuy
jimv45
skinsfan1177
Math23x7
RJB8525
Joe Snow
rb924119
nutleyblizzard
docstox12
billg315
CPcantmeasuresnow
Dunnzoo
jmanley32
SNOW MAN
lglickman1
aiannone
amugs
snow247
sroc4
algae888
Frank_Wx
42 posters

Page 17 of 29 Previous  1 ... 10 ... 16, 17, 18 ... 23 ... 29  Next

Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:45 pm

Nothing drastically different at H5 comparing to 18z so far on 00z

Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Join date : 2013-01-05

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:47 pm

Oh ok lol I never compare to in-between runs; only 00z/12z because they include actual upper air data.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Join date : 2013-02-06

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:47 pm

Tell you what...GFS is much colder than NAM at 51

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:47 pm

rb924119 wrote:Oh ok lol I never compare to in-between runs; only 00z/12z because they include actual upper air data.

What you said was true. I emphasized drastically.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:48 pm

Yea, NAM and GFS are light years apart

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:49 pm

The mid-level trough is slightly more positive than the 18z run

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:49 pm

It did tick northwest, though. No question. I even get into precipitation this run versus none at all on the 12z OP Very Happy

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by snow247 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:50 pm

So we have a northern areas big hit camp and a southern areas big hit camp, I guess we choose the middle? That would probably be a good snowstorm for us all no?
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:50 pm

Big hit for southern areas and NYC

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f60

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f63

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:50 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Yea, NAM and GFS are light years apart

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

Wow, they really are, are you still going to put out a map tomorrow or waiting? Honestly I wouldnt see how u could but I am not expert like u Frank, rb sroc etc.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:51 pm

snow247 wrote:So we have a northern areas big hit camp and a southern areas big hit camp, I guess we choose the middle? That would probably be a good snowstorm for us all no?

I 100% agree, said it before in between we all get giddy!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:51 pm

snow247 wrote:So we have a northern areas big hit camp and a southern areas big hit camp, I guess we choose the middle? That would probably be a good snowstorm for us all no?

Yes, but once again, delicate setup and really no way of knowing right now. Even trying to forecast the exact positioning of this front by just ussing H5 is almost impossible. Therefore, I am delaying the release of my 1st call snow map until tomorrow afternoon. The final will then go up Wednesday morning.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:52 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
snow247 wrote:So we have a northern areas big hit camp and a southern areas big hit camp, I guess we choose the middle? That would probably be a good snowstorm for us all no?

Yes, but once again, delicate setup and really no way of knowing right now. Even trying to forecast the exact positioning of this front by just ussing H5 is almost impossible. Therefore, I am delaying the release of my 1st call snow map until tomorrow afternoon. The final will then go up Wednesday morning.

I figured as much, good call to hold off till the 12z tomorrow.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:53 pm

Verbatim, 00z GFS has to be at least 6 inches for NYC

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:53 pm

Based on 10:1

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/snosums/0048/GFS_00_opUS_SF_0066.png

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by Yschiff Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:53 pm

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

Yschiff

Posts : 139
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2014-01-04
Location : Far Rockaway New York

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:54 pm

rb924119 wrote:Based on 10:1

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/snosums/0048/GFS_00_opUS_SF_0066.png

And ratios get a little higher then that toward the back end of the run. Probably a state-wide 8-12 for NJ

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:55 pm

GFS definitely came further north this run. I expect the ensembles to do the same.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:56 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
snow247 wrote:So we have a northern areas big hit camp and a southern areas big hit camp, I guess we choose the middle? That would probably be a good snowstorm for us all no?

Yes, but once again, delicate setup and really no way of knowing right now. Even trying to forecast the exact positioning of this front by just ussing H5 is almost impossible. Therefore, I am delaying the release of my 1st call snow map until tomorrow afternoon. The final will then go up Wednesday morning.

Yes.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:57 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Based on 10:1

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/snosums/0048/GFS_00_opUS_SF_0066.png

And ratios get a little higher then that toward the back end of the run. Probably a state-wide 8-12 for NJ

Yep, I agree 100%. Still like how this is going; it's slow and steady, but it's getting there. What about the rest of the CMC/GEM you posted earlier? I'm interested to see the rest of the globals lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:00 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Based on 10:1

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/snosums/0048/GFS_00_opUS_SF_0066.png

And ratios get a little higher then that toward the back end of the run. Probably a state-wide 8-12 for NJ

Yep, I agree 100%. Still like how this is going; it's slow and steady, but it's getting there. What about the rest of the CMC/GEM you posted earlier? I'm interested to see the rest of the globals lol

That takes awhile to update past 84 hours. Stormvista should have it in about 30 minutes. I want to see GEFS and CMC. Then bed

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:01 pm

nick gregory just mentioned there could be a storm on thurs that could bring a foot of snow...
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3716
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 60
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:02 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Based on 10:1

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/snosums/0048/GFS_00_opUS_SF_0066.png

And ratios get a little higher then that toward the back end of the run. Probably a state-wide 8-12 for NJ

Yep, I agree 100%. Still like how this is going; it's slow and steady, but it's getting there. What about the rest of the CMC/GEM you posted earlier? I'm interested to see the rest of the globals lol

That takes awhile to update past 84 hours. Stormvista should have it in about 30 minutes. I want to see GEFS and CMC. Then bed

Oh ok. And yeah Amen to that hahaha

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:04 pm

Nice on the instant wx maps, 8-12 for my area too verbatim. Hard to tell without a closeup though.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:06 pm

The type of temps associated with this system is what you usually see mid-winter. Even if the storm tracks as far north as the NAM did, while there may be mixing at first, I think it will be short-lived. How many times this season have storms trended colder? Many.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The type of temps associated with this system is what you usually see mid-winter. Even if the storm tracks as far north as the NAM did, while there may be mixing at first, I think it will be short-lived. How many times this season have storms trended colder? Many.

Great point.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by Yschiff Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:11 pm

Frank do you think the GFS is under doing the precip?

Yschiff

Posts : 139
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2014-01-04
Location : Far Rockaway New York

Back to top Go down

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 17 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 17 of 29 Previous  1 ... 10 ... 16, 17, 18 ... 23 ... 29  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum