Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
Nothing drastically different at H5 comparing to 18z so far on 00z
Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
Oh ok lol I never compare to in-between runs; only 00z/12z because they include actual upper air data.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
Tell you what...GFS is much colder than NAM at 51
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
rb924119 wrote:Oh ok lol I never compare to in-between runs; only 00z/12z because they include actual upper air data.
What you said was true. I emphasized drastically.
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
Yea, NAM and GFS are light years apart
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
The mid-level trough is slightly more positive than the 18z run
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
It did tick northwest, though. No question. I even get into precipitation this run versus none at all on the 12z OP
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
So we have a northern areas big hit camp and a southern areas big hit camp, I guess we choose the middle? That would probably be a good snowstorm for us all no?
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
Big hit for southern areas and NYC
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
Frank_Wx wrote:Yea, NAM and GFS are light years apart
Wow, they really are, are you still going to put out a map tomorrow or waiting? Honestly I wouldnt see how u could but I am not expert like u Frank, rb sroc etc.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
snow247 wrote:So we have a northern areas big hit camp and a southern areas big hit camp, I guess we choose the middle? That would probably be a good snowstorm for us all no?
I 100% agree, said it before in between we all get giddy!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
snow247 wrote:So we have a northern areas big hit camp and a southern areas big hit camp, I guess we choose the middle? That would probably be a good snowstorm for us all no?
Yes, but once again, delicate setup and really no way of knowing right now. Even trying to forecast the exact positioning of this front by just ussing H5 is almost impossible. Therefore, I am delaying the release of my 1st call snow map until tomorrow afternoon. The final will then go up Wednesday morning.
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
Frank_Wx wrote:snow247 wrote:So we have a northern areas big hit camp and a southern areas big hit camp, I guess we choose the middle? That would probably be a good snowstorm for us all no?
Yes, but once again, delicate setup and really no way of knowing right now. Even trying to forecast the exact positioning of this front by just ussing H5 is almost impossible. Therefore, I am delaying the release of my 1st call snow map until tomorrow afternoon. The final will then go up Wednesday morning.
I figured as much, good call to hold off till the 12z tomorrow.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
Verbatim, 00z GFS has to be at least 6 inches for NYC
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
Based on 10:1
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/snosums/0048/GFS_00_opUS_SF_0066.png
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/snosums/0048/GFS_00_opUS_SF_0066.png
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072
Yschiff- Posts : 139
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
rb924119 wrote:Based on 10:1
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/snosums/0048/GFS_00_opUS_SF_0066.png
And ratios get a little higher then that toward the back end of the run. Probably a state-wide 8-12 for NJ
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
GFS definitely came further north this run. I expect the ensembles to do the same.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
Frank_Wx wrote:snow247 wrote:So we have a northern areas big hit camp and a southern areas big hit camp, I guess we choose the middle? That would probably be a good snowstorm for us all no?
Yes, but once again, delicate setup and really no way of knowing right now. Even trying to forecast the exact positioning of this front by just ussing H5 is almost impossible. Therefore, I am delaying the release of my 1st call snow map until tomorrow afternoon. The final will then go up Wednesday morning.
Yes.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
Frank_Wx wrote:rb924119 wrote:Based on 10:1
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/snosums/0048/GFS_00_opUS_SF_0066.png
And ratios get a little higher then that toward the back end of the run. Probably a state-wide 8-12 for NJ
Yep, I agree 100%. Still like how this is going; it's slow and steady, but it's getting there. What about the rest of the CMC/GEM you posted earlier? I'm interested to see the rest of the globals lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
rb924119 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:rb924119 wrote:Based on 10:1
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/snosums/0048/GFS_00_opUS_SF_0066.png
And ratios get a little higher then that toward the back end of the run. Probably a state-wide 8-12 for NJ
Yep, I agree 100%. Still like how this is going; it's slow and steady, but it's getting there. What about the rest of the CMC/GEM you posted earlier? I'm interested to see the rest of the globals lol
That takes awhile to update past 84 hours. Stormvista should have it in about 30 minutes. I want to see GEFS and CMC. Then bed
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
nick gregory just mentioned there could be a storm on thurs that could bring a foot of snow...
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
Frank_Wx wrote:rb924119 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:rb924119 wrote:Based on 10:1
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/snosums/0048/GFS_00_opUS_SF_0066.png
And ratios get a little higher then that toward the back end of the run. Probably a state-wide 8-12 for NJ
Yep, I agree 100%. Still like how this is going; it's slow and steady, but it's getting there. What about the rest of the CMC/GEM you posted earlier? I'm interested to see the rest of the globals lol
That takes awhile to update past 84 hours. Stormvista should have it in about 30 minutes. I want to see GEFS and CMC. Then bed
Oh ok. And yeah Amen to that hahaha
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
Nice on the instant wx maps, 8-12 for my area too verbatim. Hard to tell without a closeup though.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
The type of temps associated with this system is what you usually see mid-winter. Even if the storm tracks as far north as the NAM did, while there may be mixing at first, I think it will be short-lived. How many times this season have storms trended colder? Many.
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
Frank_Wx wrote:The type of temps associated with this system is what you usually see mid-winter. Even if the storm tracks as far north as the NAM did, while there may be mixing at first, I think it will be short-lived. How many times this season have storms trended colder? Many.
Great point.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5
Frank do you think the GFS is under doing the precip?
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