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Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

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Post by jimv45 Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:19 pm

Cp i lived up here for 40 years never have I seen a dry slot like the last few never!

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:20 pm

RPM models (model pro Mets use) with 10:1 ratios

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 26 Post-86-0-17999300-1425406645

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:20 pm

So 6-8..probably 8-12" with ratios for NYC

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Post by down tines Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:24 pm

Can you say jackpot AGAIN lol
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Post by Guest Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:25 pm

I'd be happy with 4 to 6" just not enthused about the south trend.

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Post by snow247 Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:25 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@snow247 wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:snow this has been very frustrating with all this cold air the dry slot the last 3 storms sat over my house but its weather and I got some decent snow this year i guess its Philly and DC turn

It's been their turn for a few years then I guess

Why would you say that?

DC had no snow  last year until March, and this year they're at 13.5 inches for the season. Philadelphia is at 15.4 inches for the season, that's slightly above normal for them but not by much.

The thing is everyone always thinks they're getting shafted unless they jackpot on every storm. Trust me it's not that way it's just peoples perceptions.

lol! I'm totally kidding CP, I'm a very sarcastic person!
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Post by bloc1357 Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:26 pm

Thats a huge area of 8-12, people jump off the bridge if they do not get the most in every single storm!!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:26 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Cp i lived up here for 40 years never have I seen a dry slot like the last few never!

I agree but I have 62 inches so far this winter so I can't really complain that much.

Have the last few been frustrating? Of course, but because of ratios and no mixing issues I still received 4.5 inches from the last one. It's expectation that disappoints, people look at to many maps and actually start to believe them.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:27 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:So 6-8..probably 8-12" with ratios for NYC

nice, that sounds like a jackpot to me even if there are higher amounts to the south i'll be plenty happy plus maybe 4 tonight to give me a ceiling of 16 hell ya!
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Post by Artechmetals Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:28 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:So 6-8..probably 8-12" with ratios for NYC

Frank is that for wed night -Thursday or total from tonight
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:29 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I'd be happy with 4 to 6"  just not enthused about the south trend.

I think even with a "southern storm" this still becomes a moderate snowfall for NYC Metro given the dynamics in play with the jet streams. Will have to give things a good look tonight

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:29 pm

@Artechmetals wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:So 6-8..probably 8-12" with ratios for NYC

Frank is that for wed night -Thursday or total from tonight

Just wed night into thurs

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Post by snow247 Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:29 pm

How accurate is that RPM model? That gives most of us 6-8, which would be 8-12 with ratios included. I would take that.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:31 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:So 6-8..probably 8-12" with ratios for NYC

nice, that sounds like a jackpot to me even if there are higher amounts to the south i'll be plenty happy plus maybe 4 tonight to give me a ceiling of 16 hell ya!

Jman do yourself favor, expect 1-2 tonight and 3-5 Thursday and maybe you'll be pleasantly surprised instead of disappointed.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:31 pm

@snow247 wrote:How accurate is that RPM model? That gives most of us 6-8, which would be 8-12 with ratios included. I would take that.

I don't like it. But it has agreement with the EURO/UKIE. So worth posting

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Post by oldtimer Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:31 pm

I think its possible the last chance for a big one that most of us would be happy with a solid 6"

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Post by hyde345 Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:33 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Cp i lived up here for 40 years never have I seen a dry slot like the last few never!

Jim, we have done fine this year. I have had storms that have dumped 11 and 8 inches plus a lot of smaller accums. I picked up 3.5 on Sunday and still have well over a foot snowpack. We should get 2-4 from this afternoon and this evening and another 1-3/2-4 on Thursday. That small stuff adds up.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:36 pm

CP, yeah I could do that but i'll shoot for the stars and get over it quick if it doesn't happen, I am a gambler so lets see what happens. Those are still good numbers though.
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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:36 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:Cp i lived up here for 40 years never have I seen a dry slot like the last few never!

I agree but I have 62 inches so far this winter so I can't really complain that much.

Have the last few been frustrating? Of course, but because of ratios and no mixing issues I still received 4.5 inches from the last one. It's expectation that disappoints, people look at to many maps and actually start to believe them.
Cp I 1000% agree everyone was clinging to the nam model last night actually the last few days and as James said yesterday the only place to go is down. it's probably the hardest thing to do, to not get excited when a model solution shows a big hit for my area. you would think that we have learned our lessons after the last 2 years but nope we still get led astray like a bug heading towards a light. with that said we've had to incredible winters over 60 inches of snow last year and probably going to approach 60 inches again this year
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:39 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:Cp i lived up here for 40 years never have I seen a dry slot like the last few never!

I agree but I have 62 inches so far this winter so I can't really complain that much.

Have the last few been frustrating? Of course, but because of ratios and no mixing issues I still received 4.5 inches from the last one. It's expectation that disappoints, people look at to many maps and actually start to believe them.
Cp I 1000% agree everyone was clinging to the nam model last night actually the last few days and as James said yesterday the only place to go is down. it's probably the hardest thing to do, to not get excited when a model solution shows a big hit for my area. you would think that we have learned our lessons after the last 2 years but nope we still get led astray like a bug heading towards a light. with that said we've had to incredible winters over 60 inches of snow last year and probably going to approach 60 inches again this year

Yes Al, your very right, with 45 being my total now with tonight and thurs def could near or exceed 60 on the higher end if that were to happen, however looking not as likely but I think any solution is still somewhat on the table for this area.
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Post by Guest Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:41 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:So 6-8..probably 8-12" with ratios for NYC

nice, that sounds like a jackpot to me even if there are higher amounts to the south i'll be plenty happy plus maybe 4 tonight to give me a ceiling of 16 hell ya!

Jman if you get 4" tonight You will have seriously overachieved.....and you'd be married to me!! Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

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Post by jimv45 Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:41 pm

you are right hyde not a bad year at all but it could have been epic! hey I am not complaining only stating the facts its been a good year!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:45 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:So 6-8..probably 8-12" with ratios for NYC

nice, that sounds like a jackpot to me even if there are higher amounts to the south i'll be plenty happy plus maybe 4 tonight to give me a ceiling of 16 hell ya!

Jman if you get 4" tonight You will have seriously overachieved.....and you'd be married to me!! Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

well models been showing 3 or 4 for here, but I forgot a lot is going to be sleet. Married to you? Heh sorry I am taken, and I don't swing that way lol.
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Post by lglickman1 Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:50 pm

I think we would all be very happy with 6". So lets hope for that, seems like it's realistic for NYC metro, no?

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Post by Guest Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:13 pm

JMan the married to me comment was in reference to the "hoping for 4"" comment you made!

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