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Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

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Scullybutcher
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:14 pm

OPh good god, ur too funny, and yes I think we would all be happy with NYC area seeing 6 but I feel it will likely be 6+ how much more, gotta wait for Franks map tonight : )
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Post by snow247 Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:17 pm

Heard the SREFS are north.
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:37 pm

Last night, DT was calling for 8-12" here. Now he is saying 6-10" here with 10" amounts over Central NJ around where Quietace and skinsfan1177 live.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:50 pm

Joe Cioffi has issued his first map and has cnj in a swath of 12+
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:56 pm

How long of an event
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Post by amugs Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:59 pm

OMG - reading through the pages of posts a fricking 4-8" snowstorm for the NYC Metro for this time of year is excellent - i will take it and run - remember we are above our snowfall average for the season for many of us so this is fn gravy. Once thought here maybe will calm some of you.............

With a tightened northern gradient = increased precipitation from the south. How will this translate meaning how far north remains to be seen but enough with the bridge jumping.

NYC and surrounding areas are on the northern periphery of the heaviest QPF which is an excellent place to be right now. With this there is always a band on the northern periphery of the frontogensis. There is always subsidence north of it as well which happened to CP and Doc and Snow last storm - I am just pointing this out and don't shoot me

Srefs holding and ticked North at 15Z

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 27 SREFNE24Precip15054

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by snow247 Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:01 pm

First call from Joe Cioffi.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 27 J5dt13
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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:04 pm

That's good to hear mugs with the SREFS moving north. Let's hope the other models will follow suit.
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:09 pm

Winter Storm Watches just flew up for DC, BAL.
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Post by SNOW MAN Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:10 pm

WSW posted for my area from 7:00pm Weds. to 7:00pm Thurs. for 4-8in. of snow.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:22 pm

Euro ensembles look a bit south, NYC starting to be on the upper fringe of the heavier snow and some of the ensembles do not even have over 6 inches for NYC with today and thurs.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:26 pm

Wow at the NAM.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 27 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 27 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f45


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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:27 pm

Madonne

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 27 NAM_250mbHgtWind_ne_f39

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:28 pm

NAM is a...Godzilla

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:30 pm

The southwest flow is really going to help spread the moisture transport

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 27 NAM_500mbHgtWind_ne_f48

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Post by bloc1357 Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:30 pm

Hurry up everyone....Jump back up on the bridge that you all just jumped off!!! LOL

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:32 pm

Wow, the temp dropped real quick no longer prolonged sleet at all north, thatys all way down south now big change.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:32 pm

@bloc1357 wrote:Hurry up everyone....Jump back up on the bridge that you all just jumped off!!!  LOL

People jumping to conclusions are not looking at the storm closely enough. While southern areas look to be the jackpot as it stands, the dynamics involved should help northern areas benefit as well. 18z NAM shows that

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:34 pm

NAM CAME NORTH!!! Everybody step away from the cliff!!!
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:35 pm

I just looked at the 15Z SREF plumes for LaGuardia Airport and deducted all of the snow totals for today and put them onto Excel. Putting in all 22 members and the snow totals, the mean is ~7.87", the median is 9.46" and the range is 0-16.15" LOL

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:36 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:I just looked at the 15Z SREF plumes for LaGuardia Airport and deducted all of the snow totals for today and put them onto Excel.  Putting in all 22 members and the snow totals, the mean is ~7.87", the median is 9.46" and the range is 0-16.15" LOL

Thanks Mike! Haha

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:36 pm

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 27 591KabC

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Post by bloc1357 Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:37 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote: NAM CAME NORTH!!! Everybody step away from the cliff!!!


Now all the Southern people are going to be jumping off the Cliff!!!! LOL

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:41 pm

Frank I mentioned on another weatherboard that I felt the 12Z models were overplaying the confluence to the north thus the southern solutions. Did the 18Z NAM weaken the confluence, or is there another reason why it shows a more robust solution?
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Post by carvin1079 Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:44 pm

Channel 12 brooklyn say the percentage of 11 rather than 7 or 4 is higher

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