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Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:49 pm

And of course, the GFS 18z is..... south
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Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:49 pm

HeatMiser my gut is telling me to go with 6-10" for LI, but I am cautious. There is still time for this to trend so I am hesitant. Any time there has been a system that precludes another the models pretty much every time have made last minute adjustments. I really want to see what happens overnight and maybe on 12z tomorrow. After that its now cast time.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by RJB8525 Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:54 pm

Lee had 4-8" 60% best chance 8+ 20% but more southern for that case
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Post by HEATMISER Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:55 pm

@sroc4 wrote:HeatMiser my gut is telling me to go with 6-10" for LI, but I am cautious. There is still time for this to trend so I am hesitant.  Any time there has been a system that precludes another the models pretty much every time have made last minute adjustments.  I really want to see what happens overnight and maybe on 12z tomorrow.  After that its now cast time.    

Thank you...

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Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 03, 2015 4:56 pm

@HEATMISER wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:HeatMiser my gut is telling me to go with 6-10" for LI, but I am cautious. There is still time for this to trend so I am hesitant.  Any time there has been a system that precludes another the models pretty much every time have made last minute adjustments.  I really want to see what happens overnight and maybe on 12z tomorrow.  After that its now cast time.    

Thank you...

You bet

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 03, 2015 5:02 pm

rgem at 1pm thurs looks rather light
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 29 Rgem_asnow_us_16
this is for both storms
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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 03, 2015 5:12 pm

18z gfs is almost completely dry for n/w areas and a few inches in nyc. c/s nj crushed
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 29 Gfs_asnow_us_11
both systems


Last edited by algae888 on Tue Mar 03, 2015 5:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jimv45 Tue Mar 03, 2015 5:18 pm

well if it says almost dry it should look out my window snowing very hard in southern dutchess!

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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 03, 2015 5:20 pm

@jimv45 wrote:well if it says almost dry it should look out my window snowing very hard in southern dutchess!
dry for 2nd system
snowfall for first
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 29 Gfs_asnow_us_4
both
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 29 Gfs_asnow_us_12
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Mar 03, 2015 5:45 pm

Folks watch the threads....put obs in the other thread....

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:00 pm

Where is Frank's map lol
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Post by oldtimer Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:06 pm

Skins   Frank trying to make decision after all the ups and downs today

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:10 pm

Yeah good point what a WILD run of models
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Post by dsvinos Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:31 pm

What will the snowfall ratio be on Thursday? Smile
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:34 pm

10:1 for our area
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Post by Guest Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:38 pm

I'm going to predict Frank's map.  
-3 to 6" for NE PA and Hudson Valley into Ct.
-6 to 10 for LI and down to Philly (a line from Harrisburg thru just north of AC)
-10 to 14" south of here to just north of D.C. (Baltimore, Sussex Deleware, MD shore, Cape May)

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Post by Quietace Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:43 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I'm going to predict Frank's map.  
-3 to 6" for NE PA and Hudson Valley into Ct.
-6 to 10 for LI and down to Philly (a line from Harrisburg thru just north of AC)
-10 to 14" south of here to just north of D.C. (Baltimore, Sussex Deleware, MD shore, Cape May)
Ouch....better luck next time and maybe with some cash involved told ya
End thread///

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