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Final Snow Map - Observations Thread 3/1-3/2 Storm

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:42 am

Final call is 1-3" area-wide, with localized 4" amounts. The dynamics are just not here (again) for this to produce large amounts of snow, and you can see this by what looks to be a dry slot already developing behind the best isentropic lift (warm air advection) which we are already in, and you can see how weak the radar returns are and how light the snow is. The very weak/partially non-existent forcing coupled with very dry low-levels is not going to produce.


Last edited by rb924119 on Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:45 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:42 am

14* but the snow is so light you can barely see it. Only have a dusting so far.
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Post by Guest Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:53 am

Frank I gotta say that the radar looks really bad. Really bad. Only decent returns are south towards Maryland and VA moving due east. Otherwise from NYC all the way back into central Ohio is only very light snow. Flurries and spotty at that! Mad Mad

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:56 am

I'm not worried yet. If the radar still looks disorganized/weak by mid afternoon then that would certainly yield concern. Guidance is not impressive with the precip until mid afternoon into the evening hours once the secondary tries to get going off the coast. Here was the 00z UKMET, and it has support from numerous others.

Final Snow Map - Observations Thread 3/1-3/2 Storm - Page 2 Ukmet_snow_nyc_40

At this point, models are useless but will be interesting to see what the 12z short range ones say. Watching radar trends and mid/lower level temps will be key.

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Post by snow247 Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:02 am

Already sticking to everything here
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Post by Biggin23 Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:03 am

I woke up to being under a WSW for ice....could be a long day tomorrow if that is the case!

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Post by oldtimer Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:07 am

Temperature went up 5* in last hour  Now at 27*  Carbon copy of last week

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:12 am

Pretty sure most of this in NJ is virga. 11am sounds like a good time still for the Steadiest snow.

Final Snow Map - Observations Thread 3/1-3/2 Storm - Page 2 Inxr1KPHLa_h

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Post by jimv45 Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:17 am

Rb you are right been saying this 3 to 6 south to north 6 being top
end and that might be to high.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:18 am

12z NAM Sim radar at 4pm today. The r/s line is probably around Staten Island. Central/SNJ probably bad ice event.

Final Snow Map - Observations Thread 3/1-3/2 Storm - Page 2 NamNE_prec_radar_009

Snow map still brings 3-6" to the area.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:23 am

Steady light snow, dusting.
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Post by jimv45 Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:27 am

Docs think your good for 3 to 6 at best just not feeling this storm are you?

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:29 am

@docstox12 wrote:Steady light snow, dusting.

Hey Doc, if you revisit the last couple pages of the previous thread for this storm you will find the second set of forcings explained. I hope it makes sense.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:30 am

Jim, Syo mentioned the radar, I looked and at this stage, it does look awful as he stated.This is what we have been served up here all winter, these W to E storms that shift south, weaken, dry slot us.

You're right, just not feeling the love from this one yet.

Just want to get 3 inches to top me at 60 inches for the season.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:31 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Steady light snow, dusting.

Hey Doc, if you revisit the last couple pages of the previous thread for this storm you will find the second set of forcings explained. I hope it makes sense.

Going there now, rb, thanks for all your time explaining this.

Just got through from reading it, rb.Excellent discussiion of wind dynamics and now I have a better understanding .


Last edited by docstox12 on Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:38 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:37 am

SDQ for eastern Orange County is 3 inches or less
SSQ is 4-6 inches
SEQ is 6 inches or more
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:41 am

CP's favorite word, subsidence, is once again rearing it's ugly face. Those heavy echoes in MD/DE I feel is causing air to sink over our area. Hence the virga. Rb, do you agree?

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:42 am

I'm worried about the ic threat I'm at 28 ° now hoping stays cold just for snow seems like wishful thinking
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:44 am

Frank, when I got up this morning, my humidity level was in the 60's, now it's down to 51% and falling, that radar is virga....too dry

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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:47 am

Listen guys. This light precip was expected, hence why CPA was always forecast to get less. You have an ULL coming down from the NW out of Canada that will work to enhance the precip long the coast later today. Along with that, you also have a secondary that will form off the coast and throw back precip. This light stuff is on schedule. Take a look at the 12z NAM, has light garbage until 21z, when it really ramps up, which was always the forecast. RELAX!

Light Garbage with heavy over MD (Modeled and happening right now)
Final Snow Map - Observations Thread 3/1-3/2 Storm - Page 2 Sfc_pc16

Heavy Stuff for Later!
Final Snow Map - Observations Thread 3/1-3/2 Storm - Page 2 Sfc_pc17
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:50 am

I believe the main event is still located over the Ohio Valley. Guidance brings the heaviest precip into the area later this afternoon and evening. Currently, I feel the strong radar returns south of us near DE is causing sinking air over our area. Once that moves out, we should see radar filling in and looking better. We'll see.

Final Snow Map - Observations Thread 3/1-3/2 Storm - Page 2 Post-40-0-73775300-1425221415

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:50 am

Good post Alex

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:52 am

Talk to you all in the chat

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Post by aiannone Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:53 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:I believe the main event is still located over the Ohio Valley. Guidance brings the heaviest precip into the area later this afternoon and evening. Currently, I feel the strong radar returns south of us near DE is causing sinking air over our area. Once that moves out, we should see radar filling in and looking better. We'll see.

Final Snow Map - Observations Thread 3/1-3/2 Storm - Page 2 Post-40-0-73775300-1425221415

You are exactly right. We saw this with the last event as well. MD was getting crushed and we were having a hard time getting precip, but once the evening came, boom! we broke out with heavy bands, and everyone achieved their totals.
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Post by snow247 Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:58 am

Very light dusting, cloudy now.
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