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Final Snow Map - Observations Thread 3/1-3/2 Storm

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Post by rb924119 Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:04 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:I believe the main event is still located over the Ohio Valley. Guidance brings the heaviest precip into the area later this afternoon and evening. Currently, I feel the strong radar returns south of us near DE is causing sinking air over our area. Once that moves out, we should see radar filling in and looking better. We'll see.

Final Snow Map - Observations Thread 3/1-3/2 Storm - Page 3 Post-40-0-73775300-1425221415

I think it's other factors that are causing the sinking air, BUT that precipitation over the Delmarva I think is having an effect, albeit different. I think what is happening is the subsidence is being caused by larger-scale forcings. I also think that the lack of precipitation further north is actually being aided by a process of what I call "moisture robbing". If you look at that area, that is where your strongest low-level warm air advection is currently occurring, as well as the precipitation. However, that moisture is being taken out of the atmosphere as the air is being forced to ascend. Naturally. But think of that air that is seeing that moisture being dropped out of it via the precipitation. That same, moisture-depleted air, is continuing to be advected north on the low-level southerly flow. Even though there is still some warm air advection the further north it gets, it is not as strong, and so is not a strong enough forcing to override the larger-scale sinking motion and get that "moisture robbed" air to condense the smaller amount of waver vapor in it and produce precipitation (it would have to ascend further to start condensing.....think of a sounding with a greater separation between the temperature and dew point- the LCL is much lower is moisture-rich air than it is in moisture-starved air. Same thing.) I *think* that could also be a factor here. Does that make sense?

This is very common during the warm months with thunderstorms, but instead of moisture, it is lower instabilities created by convection further upstream that is then advected downstream by the wind. This then robs the atmosphere downstream of the better convective instability and weaker thunderstorms usually result.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:09 am

Thank to all who joined the chat. Here were the headlines:

1. Radar was expected to look bad this morning. Look for it to start filling in by 2-3pm with heavy snow for many between 4-7pm.

2. The front-end whop is expected to be impressive with 1" per hour snow rates. While the 4-7" may be too high on my snow map, I do believe 3-6" is still attainable and the 1-3" from local Mets is still too low.

3. The Ice in CNJ is going to be bad. .25-.50" of ice, even .10" into NYC. CNJ should still see 2" of front end snow

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:10 am

28° light snow has started
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:15 am

General precip seems to be on a northeast trajectory. I like it.

Final Snow Map - Observations Thread 3/1-3/2 Storm - Page 3 Post-40-0-18122100-1425226733

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:16 am

Looks excellent

Final Snow Map - Observations Thread 3/1-3/2 Storm - Page 3 RAD_MOS_STATE_NY_WINTER_ANI

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:17 am

Final Snow Map - Observations Thread 3/1-3/2 Storm - Page 3 RAD_KDIX_N0R_ANI

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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:18 am

Went from flurries to mod/ heavy snow

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:18 am

Virga so far but ukmet looks promising.


Last edited by NjWeatherGuy on Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:26 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:18 am

@Quietace wrote:Went from flurries to mod/ heavy snow

It has begun.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:20 am

Yes Ace moderate snow and I think it may stick with no problem it's 28°
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:22 am

Snow hole over me again...
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Post by Guest Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:23 am

Sorry I missed the chat I had to pick up my kids at my parents house. Dun zoo thanks for the PM. Starting my fire up right now waiting for 4 to 6" of white gold here on the north shore of LI. Freezing rain on top could close schools tomorrow

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:27 am

Hoping for 4" here, do not want 2" then lots of sleet/zr to compact it to an inch of ice.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:28 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Hoping for 4" here, do not want 2" then lots of sleet/zr to compact it to an inch of ice.

3" of snow and .25" of ice looks likely for you

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:30 am

Philly seeing steady snow now. Dry air is moving out. Almost game time

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Post by amugs Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:30 am

Crazy snow hole over me and sorry I missed the chat rats. Snowing to the north of me and to the south , STUCK IN THE MIDDLE AGAIN!!

Was hoping this came in more overnight from say midnight until 9am, being selfish here! May get a delayed out of it for school but with the state Crap testing we have this week they will not want to push it back.

Me like the 3-6 call and I always thought this would be a plow able snowstorm.

Happy Meteorological Spring Day peeps.

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Post by oldtimer Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:31 am

Frank  Chat was wonderful   Be very happy with 4"

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Post by Quietace Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:35 am

Went from 28.6 to 26.1 since snow started

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Post by RJB8525 Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:41 am

flurries coming down now
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:42 am

just started flurrying here....28*
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Post by amugs Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:43 am

This snowstorm is going to be a gravy storm peeps many if not all of us are at or above our snowfall averages. As the great docstox said in the chat archives we have been spoiled by the run of wintees since the early 2000's.

Oh and still no snow here I am going put a large fan on roof and blow the snow off of it passing my large bay window so I can think it is snowing out and enjoy it until it does actually snow here.

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Post by amugs Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:44 am

OMG RIPPING HERE NOW!!
Two flakes I have counted hahaha

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:46 am

@amugs wrote:This snowstorm is going to be a gravy storm peeps many if not all of us are at or above our snowfall averages. As the great docstox said in the chat archives we have been spoiled by the run of wintees since the early 2000's.

Oh and still no snow here I am going put a large fan on roof and blow the snow off of it passing my large bay window so I can think it is snowing out and enjoy it until it does actually snow here.

True but for those of us over 40 it's just starting to make up for the snow starved 1970's, 80's and several years in the 90's.
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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:47 am

Not snowing here anymore, but the sun is coming through the clouds melting what was on the ground and it's only
21*.
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Post by amugs Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:49 am

Yes CP I am one of those on this board.

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