NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Page 1 of 2 1, 2  Next

Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by amugs Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:11 am

Peeps,

NNJand the LHV as well as sw ct may be looking at a serious event though they will not use the words but I will, ice storm, tomorrow into tomorrow night

Let's discuss


Last edited by amugs on Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:39 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by sroc4 Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:17 am

Mugs did you get to see the video?

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6869
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by amugs Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:43 am

Scott not yet sorry I tried downloading it on my phone last night but not happening. So after I drop my kids off I will view it. VERY MUCH LOOKING FORWARD IT!!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by amugs Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:45 am

Rgem 6Z
Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event PT_PN_048_0000

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by amugs Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:47 am

UPTONs 1st shot at this .

THE FIRST PIECE OF PHASED ENERGY WILL HAVE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC TUE/TUES
NIGHT...WITH ITS WARM FRONT...AND AN ABSORBED CENTRAL PLAINS LOW...
APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. STRONG WAA AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TUE AFTN AS
SNOW...BUT WITH MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL PAC
CONNECTION...EXPECTING TEMPS ALOFT TO WARM FAIRLY RAPIDLY TUE
EVE/NIGHT WITH SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PCPN THEN RAIN FROM S TO N. A
QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW CITY/COAST AND 2 TO 4 INTERIOR ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGEOVER.

DUE TO THE PRIMARY LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NW OF THE REGION...DEEP
SNOW PACK AND COLD WATER TEMPS...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY
HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CITY/COAST TUE EVENING BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN...BUT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE HERE. WITH SOME OF THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIP FALLING IN
FROZEN FORM AND TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 30S THROUGH WED MORNING...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT AMOUNT OF
SNOWMELT...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
NYC/NJ METRO AND COAST.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by algae888 Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:47 am

@sroc4 wrote:Mugs did you get to see the video?
scott what thread is the video in?
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:29 am

12z NAM showing the ice issues on Tuesday

7pm Tuesday surface temps very cold

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event B_GT8fBW0AA5EEf

Precip

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event B_GTi4lW4AAmIEk

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:03 am

Frank does this include me? I have debated if I am considered lohud or not, and NWS only saying .1-.2, which is not crippling, but it has the potential? What would YOU consider to be the ceiling for frz accumulation around here? I have work to do and if I am at risk for losing power am going to have to do it all tonight.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by amugs Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:06 am

RPM - from another board

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event B_GXHH6U4AAqjwo

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event B_GXHG9UQAAQSPi

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by Quietace Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:08 am

Icing doesn't look to prolonged south of the driscoll bridge.....elevation will also be key in damning in the LLC. Most Should not lose much, if any snowpack since its now a sheet of ice....


Last edited by Quietace on Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:09 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by jimv45 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:08 am

Hyde looks like a bad situation could unfold for us in Dutchess county and docs cp you too!!

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1140
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Ulster county ny

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by algae888 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:10 am

12z rgem
Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event I_nw_r1_EST_2015030212_032
Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event I_nw_r1_EST_2015030212_033
Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event I_nw_r1_EST_2015030212_034
Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event I_nw_r1_EST_2015030212_035
the snow
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:11 am

That looks quite ominous for a very large area, quick snow then possibly major ice, getting to work is becoming very hard lol.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by algae888 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:12 am

the ice
Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event I_nw_r1_EST_2015030212_036
Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event I_nw_r1_EST_2015030212_037
Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event I_nw_r1_EST_2015030212_038
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by hyde345 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:14 am

@jimv45 wrote:Hyde looks like a bad situation could unfold for us in Dutchess county and docs cp you too!!

It could definitely be a mess. Looks like some decent snows, then sleet, freezing rain, and a little rain at the end.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 895
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:16 am

Al. looks like mainly sleet for us, but its a fine line between sleet and frz which ever it is looks to come down hard. Man what a week this will be!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by Quietace Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:17 am

I dont think anyone maybe north of I-80 sees plain rain....

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by algae888 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:19 am

@Quietace wrote:I dont think anyone maybe north of I-80 sees plain rain....
I agree ace. precip looks to be over by 7am. it is going to be hard to warm the low levels esp with lp so far west of us.
Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event I_nw_r1_EST_2015030212_048
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by amugs Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:30 am

Upton

SNOW
Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event StormTotalSnowFcst

ICE
Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event StormTotalIceFcst

QPF
Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event StormTotalQPFFcst


Last edited by amugs on Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:32 am; edited 2 times in total

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by amugs Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:32 am

@Quietace wrote:I dont think anyone maybe north of I-80 sees plain rain....

GOOD OL' I 80 Barrier. Yes that is the dividing line and it looks to be pretty serious if the qpf amount of .4 -.5" holds true.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:42 am

@jimv45 wrote:Hyde looks like a bad situation could unfold for us in Dutchess county and docs cp you too!!

I agree Jim. Looks like we get a quick 2-4 inches of snow, then it's ice or sleet or both.

Hopefully sleet because that will do far less damage, if FRZ we could be in for some power outages.

I'd rather have plain rain then FRZ so we shall see.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by jimv45 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:46 am

yes let it sleet no freezing rain!

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1140
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Ulster county ny

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:04 am

For NYC Metro my current forecast is 1-2 inches of snow, .15-.20" of ice, .40.60" of rain.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:07 am

I will have a map out tonight to better define local areas

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by snow247 Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:28 am

When is the start time for this?
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event Empty Re: Tuesday 3/2 Ice Event

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 2 1, 2  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum