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Impact Map / Observations Thread - Tuesday Snow&Ice Event

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Post by snow247 Tue Mar 03, 2015 7:33 am

Snow is now breaking out in SEPA heading NE.

Wonder if Upton will upgrade advisories to say 3-5 or 3-6 for their northern counties.
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Post by amugs Tue Mar 03, 2015 7:42 am

@snow247 wrote:Snow is now breaking out in SEPA heading NE.

Wonder if Upton will upgrade advisories to say 3-5 or 3-6 for their northern counties.

They should - COLD AIR FTW again - that Negative EPO is incredible.

GFS,UKIE, GEMLAM, RGEM all saying so - what are they relying on the CRAS??

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Post by snow247 Tue Mar 03, 2015 7:49 am

@amugs wrote:
@snow247 wrote:Snow is now breaking out in SEPA heading NE.

Wonder if Upton will upgrade advisories to say 3-5 or 3-6 for their northern counties.

They should - COLD AIR FTW again - that Negative EPO is incredible.

GFS,UKIE, GEMLAM, RGEM all saying so - what are they relying on the CRAS??

Hahaha, you nailed this again mugs.

Would love to hear all of your thoughts on the bigger storm.
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Post by amugs Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:13 am

Snow thanks and i wrote a piece somewhat yesterday - will do after this storm to be honest but it really depends on where the barclonic zone that is the warm air and cold air front/zone sets up - if it just offshore the runs in a sw to nne direction as being depicted then the storm rides that line and with the GOM/STJ adding plent of moisture as Rb and Frank are saying. We could be in for a season ending BANG.

Let's get our 3'+ out of this one and carry the torch to the next one up here. The cold air is always underdone

Have to say looking at LR models and info the warm up is coming but the beautiful PAC couple of Mr. Negative EPO and Positive PNA look to come back the 2nd half of March - reload. That could be very interesting for folks like you, SNOWMAN, DOC, CP

Beast the hell out of last March hands down!!

Latest HRRR

Impact Map / Observations Thread - Tuesday Snow&Ice Event - Page 2 2cekh2c

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Post by gigs68 Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:20 am

[quote="amugs"]
Let's get our 3'+ out of this one

3 feet. Wow the forecast really changed since last night Smile

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:24 am

@gigs68 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
Let's get our 3'+ out of this one

3 feet.  Wow the forecast really changed since last night  Smile


I agree. Forecasting 3 feet for today's event is a very bold prediction indeed mugs. If that does verify you are snow weenie King for life. If it's just a typing error maybe it's time to get some news typing software and practice on those skills. But until we hear from you I'm going with that three-foot forecast.
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Post by amugs Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:31 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@gigs68 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
Let's get our 3'+ out of this one

3 feet.  Wow the forecast really changed since last night  Smile


I agree. Forecasting 3 feet for today's event is a very bold prediction indeed mugs. If that does verify you are snow weenie King for life. If it's just a typing error maybe it's time to get some news typing software and practice on those skills. But until we hear from you I'm going with that three-foot forecast.

Typo boys - typing skills need to be sharpened - like the knife in my back - ooooohhhh - ouch!! Having to do this from my phone and my fat fingers with small touchscreen buttons does not bode well.

3"

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:54 am

By 7-8pm this evening, the NAM is showing moderate snowfall those just west and north of NYC. NYC may be snow, but surface looks warm. Either way, still thinking at least an inch for them

Impact Map / Observations Thread - Tuesday Snow&Ice Event - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f13

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Post by docstox12 Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:02 am

@amugs wrote:Snow thanks and i wrote a piece somewhat yesterday - will do after this storm to be honest but it really depends on where the barclonic zone that is the warm air and cold air front/zone sets up - if it just offshore the runs in a sw to nne direction as being depicted then the storm rides that line and with the GOM/STJ adding plent of moisture as Rb and Frank are saying. We could be in for a season ending BANG.

Let's get our 3'+ out of this one and carry the torch to the next one up here. The cold air is always underdone

Have to say looking at LR models and info the warm up is coming but the beautiful PAC couple of Mr. Negative EPO and Positive PNA look to come back the 2nd half of March - reload. That could be very interesting for folks like you, SNOWMAN, DOC, CP

Beast the hell out of last March hands down!!

Latest HRRR

Impact Map / Observations Thread - Tuesday Snow&Ice Event - Page 2 2cekh2c

I'm thinking we will do better on this one tonight as the set up favors N and W. Maybe 4 or 5 if we're lucky. With the S and E shift of the models for tomorrow, today's snow will help even out the final totals Thursday afternoon.

Anyway, as Mugsy says, an amazing March here.It's been a while since March was so productive.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:16 am

It's not so long since March was productive. Two years ago in 2013 NYC saw 7.3 inches of snow in March and we received 23.8 in the HV from three separate events.

It remains to be seen if this March matches or surpasses two years ago. We're off to a good start but let's see these two produce before we start calling this March anything other than average.
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Post by snow247 Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:36 am

Doc and CP, I feel like we're in for a good 3"-6" snow event here later, especially you two.

I was wondering, what did you both get from the pre-Thanksgiving snowstorm last year? I only got 3.5", If I remember correctly, you guys got much more than I did. Crazy being just a few miles away. Orange County is definitely first on my list of places to move to once I'm done with school. No more boring Rockland snow hole.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:46 am

@snow247 wrote:Doc and CP, I feel like we're in for a good 3"-6" snow event here later, especially you two.

I was wondering, what did you both get from the pre-Thanksgiving snowstorm last year? I only got 3.5", If I remember correctly, you guys got much more than I did. Crazy being just a few miles away. Orange County is definitely first on my list of places to move to once I'm done with school. No more boring Rockland snow hole.

Snow, we received 9.4 inches from the pre-Thanksgiving day storm. Thanksgiving day looked like Christmas should have this year.

Like I said that 20-25 miles makes a huge difference sometimes. Ask Doc who just made the move from Mahwah NJ. I grew up in New City so I remember having those same feelings growing up and l moved to Orange County right after I got married. Of course that decision was based on home prices then and I'll admit had nothing to do with snowfall.
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Post by amugs Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:25 am

DOC the new KSW - HV - I have solved the mystery - the move to HV made it happen for you CP

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Post by snow247 Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:58 am

Snow looks to be moving into western NJ by 12PM at the latest.
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Post by amugs Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:00 am

RGEM SNOWFALL

Impact Map / Observations Thread - Tuesday Snow&Ice Event - Page 2 WWLQahA

SLEET - MADONNNEEE!!
Impact Map / Observations Thread - Tuesday Snow&Ice Event - Page 2 Y0DM6Rp

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by essexcountypete Tue Mar 03, 2015 12:12 pm

Moisture moving in fast, but I wonder how long before it makes it all the way to the surface.

Anyone in western nj seeing snow yet?
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 03, 2015 12:15 pm

I'm in hackettstown nothing yet

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Post by snow247 Tue Mar 03, 2015 12:49 pm

Nothing here yet, what's with the big dry slot coming through PA? Will that fill in?
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Post by 1190ftalt Tue Mar 03, 2015 12:51 pm

No snow yet in Stillwater @ 12:51
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Post by jimv45 Tue Mar 03, 2015 12:56 pm

hyde hope for some decent snow but not feeling to much this might be our last chance with that wednesday night storm going way south.

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Post by billg315 Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:08 pm

Cloudy and cold, but no snow yet in Somerville.
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Post by Vinnydula Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:29 pm

Flakes in Westchester
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:32 pm

Main non-virga precip still over PA. Start time has been late afternoon anyway

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Post by snow247 Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:34 pm

Light snow has commenced here, a bit earlier then expected. Hoping for 4 or 5 inches if I can hold on to steady heavy snow long enough, a few models have shown that for Doc, CP, and I.
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Post by SNOW MAN Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:44 pm

22* and snowing very lightly.
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