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1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:40 pm

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  200140_898548510196909_8813851966737034123_n

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  1506687_898548493530244_416087513952711782_n

The not-so great trend is at H5 where the mid-level trough is stringing itself out a bit and turning this into a more progressive system. The good news is, we should still have enough dynamics to work with thanks to the orientation of the H25/200kt jet streak N&W of our area. This is going to help spread H7 frontogenesis further north (vertical motion) which will enhance snowfall rates. Temps are expected to crash during the event so we may start at a 10:1 ratio and transition to near 20:1, especially in northern areas. That said, this is just a 1st call and I do expected changes by the final call which will be released tomorrow morning. We'll see how this goes.

I have a dinner meeting tonight so I plan on having more to say when I get back.

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Post by Guest Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:45 pm

Damn my guess was just off by 1 to 2" in most spots. Lets hope for a 50 mile shift north!

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Post by Biggin23 Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:54 pm

Frank, first time I have been predicted to be in the JP all year....I hope this isn't an omen!

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Post by snow247 Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:55 pm

My gut feeling is some 00z models will tick north a bit, probably not significantly, but noticeably. Not sure about tomorrow though.
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Post by RJB8525 Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:56 pm

awesome map

hope it turns out for everyone who loves snow
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Post by billg315 Tue Mar 03, 2015 6:56 pm

While I'd love to see this shift about 40-50 miles north, as long as these amounts don't shift any further south I'll be happy.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 03, 2015 7:00 pm

2-4 inches? I can't say I'm surprised. I guess I'll nap through this one.

The moral of this story is when the NAM has you in the jackpot 2-4 days out, which it has done to Orange County at least a half dozen times this year you're in trouble. It never verifies because it is the Nefarious Assinine Model. At least I've learned to ignore it, for you unsuspecting victims beware.

I suppose I can root for CPK to go over 40 inches for the season so I at least have something to watch.
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Post by Dtone Tue Mar 03, 2015 7:20 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:2-4 inches? I can't say I'm surprised. I guess I'll nap through this one.

The moral of this story is when the NAM has you in the jackpot 2-4 days out, which it has done to Orange County at least a half dozen times this year you're in trouble. It never verifies because it is the Nefarious Assinine Model. At least I've learned to ignore it, for you unsuspecting victims beware.

I suppose I can root for CPK to go over 40 inches for the season so I at least have something to watch.


Im rooting too, I added up 40"+ for myself already but I'd like to see it officially. LGA is there already, JFK close behind, just need CPK to catch up

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Mar 03, 2015 7:21 pm

I believe that the dreaded south trend has stopped. With the latest SREFS, NAM, and RGEM ticking north is certainly encouraging. The GFS is an outlier right now with its southern solution. Even so the GEFS are north of the OP. I think that the GFS will eventually correct north. It remains to be seen if the models continue to shift north or just stand pat. All we need is just a 50 mile jog to the north for a godzilla in the NYC metro area. HUGE 00Z RUNS TONIGHT!!!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 03, 2015 7:24 pm

@Dtone wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:2-4 inches? I can't say I'm surprised. I guess I'll nap through this one.

The moral of this story is when the NAM has you in the jackpot 2-4 days out, which it has done to Orange County at least a half dozen times this year you're in trouble. It never verifies because it is the Nefarious Assinine Model. At least I've learned to ignore it, for you unsuspecting victims beware.

I suppose I can root for CPK to go over 40 inches for the season so I at least have something to watch.


Im rooting too, I added up 40"+ for myself already but I'd like to see it officially. LGA is there already, JFK close behind, just need CPK to catch up

If they would correct the January and February under counts like they said they would they'd be there. Obviously that is not going to happen.
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Post by Quietace Tue Mar 03, 2015 7:26 pm

I don't understand why everyone thinks a north trend will occur. Based on how H5 has trended and how models are handling the trough, If anything I'd be worried this goes farther SE

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Post by oldtimer Tue Mar 03, 2015 7:28 pm

I just hope it doesn't become more PROGRESSIVE  That's the key word that Frank mention

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Mar 03, 2015 7:35 pm

Ace I was thinking same thing but probably because of that dumb Nam model from yesterday lol
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Post by snow247 Tue Mar 03, 2015 7:59 pm

Still think it will slowly tick north from 00z runs and so on. Models starting to come out soon, come on!
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Post by Quietace Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:06 pm

@snow247 wrote:Still think it will slowly tick north from 00z runs and so on. Models starting to come out soon, come on!
What's your thoughts on why they may?

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Post by snow247 Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:10 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@snow247 wrote:Still think it will slowly tick north from 00z runs and so on. Models starting to come out soon, come on!
What's your thoughts on why they may?

I guess you missed what I posted earlier, I said "just a gut feeling". What I said probably doesn't mean anything though. I know some guys that agree with me and have reasons too.

00z NAM coming out soon. Here's to good luck.
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Post by amugs Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:13 pm

SREFS holding their ground

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  SREFNE24Precip21051

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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:14 pm

@Quietace wrote:I  don't understand why everyone thinks a north trend will occur. Based on how H5 has trended and how models are handling the trough, If anything I'd be worried this goes farther SE
3 straight gfs ensembles north of op. also euro ens. north of op. gfs as usual is farthest s/e which is usually it's bias. most other models still showing a nice hit for most of us. i expect the gfs to make not so much of north shift but more of a correction north. and i expect other models to hold their ground and maybe expand or contract precip fields based on how dynamic system gets. obviously any thing is possible. ket's see what happens in a few minutes with latest srefs.
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Post by Quietace Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:15 pm

SREFS look practically the exact same....maybe the slightest tick drier on the northern edge of precip. Placement the same

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Post by amugs Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:15 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:I  don't understand why everyone thinks a north trend will occur. Based on how H5 has trended and how models are handling the trough, If anything I'd be worried this goes farther SE
3 straight gfs ensembles north of op. also euro ens. north of op. gfs as usual is farthest s/e which is usually it's bias. most other models still showing a nice hit for most of us. i expect the gfs to make not so much of north shift but more of a correction north. and i expect other models to hold their ground and maybe expand or contract precip fields based on how dynamic system gets. obviously any thing is possible. ket's see what happens in a few minutes with latest srefs.

HAHAHA - Al while you were writing this I posted them in the post above.

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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:16 pm

well nice to see srefs hold serve. one down nam next
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:16 pm

They look a tiny bit further south than the last run.
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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:17 pm

yes mugs thinking we are too close now and not a lot of changes with models except gfs to correct
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Post by Quietace Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:19 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:I  don't understand why everyone thinks a north trend will occur. Based on how H5 has trended and how models are handling the trough, If anything I'd be worried this goes farther SE
3 straight gfs ensembles north of op. also euro ens. north of op. gfs as usual is farthest s/e which is usually it's bias. most other models still showing a nice hit for most of us. i expect the gfs to make not so much of north shift but more of a correction north. and i expect other models to hold their ground and maybe expand or contract precip fields based on how dynamic system gets. obviously any thing is possible. ket's see what happens in a few minutes with latest srefs.
IMO the diffrence between the OP and GEFS are minimal given the output of the mean. I think the GEFS and SREFS will be close to final outcome but a tick drier on northern edge given H7 and h5 frontagenesis over CNJ and the subsidence that occur given dynamic banding over the for mentioned areas.

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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:30 pm

the other thing to watch is something that scott said earlier about thermal profiles being warm in almost all layers of atmosphere and will take time to cool esp in c/s nj and south. there will be a lot of warm air overrunning moisture and if column doesn't cool fast enough I can see a scenario where there Is a lot of sleet in places I just mentioned.
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