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1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Mar 04, 2015 9:57 am

crud we have one more snowday..I hope we get to use it??? right now
39 and raining..
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:01 am

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 10 I_nw_r1_EST_2015030412_020
1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 10 I_nw_r1_EST_2015030412_021
1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 10 I_nw_r1_EST_2015030412_022
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:02 am

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 10 I_nw_r1_EST_2015030412_023
1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 10 I_nw_r1_EST_2015030412_024
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:04 am

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 10 I_nw_r1_EST_2015030412_025
1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 10 I_nw_r1_EST_2015030412_027
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:06 am

after this lights snows for most. n/w suburbs do better on this run
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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:10 am

I would say with ratios that's a solid 3-6" area wide including doc cp territory. prob 3-4" for them. more as you head south. what n/w suburbs have going for them is a quicker change to snow than southern areas. with tick north on first wave they may do ok with storm.
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Post by Guest Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:11 am

@algae888 wrote:after this lights snows for most. n/w suburbs do better on this run

That actually looks good were it to verify. I'm sure the NWS wants it to. They have a lot of egg on their face from busted forecasts this winter.

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Post by jimv45 Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:12 am

boy if that is right do well in hudson valley but need to see a lot more!

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Post by Biggin23 Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:13 am

RGEM looks solid for CNJ and SNJ

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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:24 am

RGEM is 4-6 inches area wide without ratios. I'm away from my computer if someone can post the map
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:31 am

I have to go about a new way of looking at this storm. Temps are now becoming an issue for most of us except N&W areas. Here is RGEM snow map

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 10 SN_000-048_0000

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:34 am

There may be an areas of subsidence over NYC with this storm. Heavy snow to the south and west of them.

Great.......

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 10 RT_PN_021_0000

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Post by Mathgod55 Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:34 am

Is the word BUST on anyone's radar yet?
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:47 am

HRRR by Midnight looks pretty nice. This model has been off though..so unreliable. Will be curious to see if it still looks like this by 4-5pm this afternoon

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 10 Hrrr_ref_nyc_16

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:48 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:I have to go about a new way of looking at this storm. Temps are now becoming an issue for most of us except N&W areas. Here is RGEM snow map

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 10 SN_000-048_0000

I'd take this in a heartbeat. A half inch of liquid, all snow, would probably be 5-7 up here.

I'm not saying I believe it I'm just saying I'd love it.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:48 am

12z GFS looks better. 5-10" for CNJ/Coastal NJ. 3-6" for NYC

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 10 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f30

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Post by jimv45 Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:49 am

cp starting to get a little hope plus it will be colder up here but still need to see more!

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:52 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I have to go about a new way of looking at this storm. Temps are now becoming an issue for most of us except N&W areas. Here is RGEM snow map

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 10 SN_000-048_0000

I'd take this in a heartbeat. A half inch of liquid, all snow, would probably be 5-7 up here.

I'm not saying I believe it I'm just saying I'd love it.

This is looking better for you

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:02 am

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 10 RxZ51bP

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:26 am

12z CMC is great, GFS improved, RGEM looks good. This looks like a nice event again. Nice! Final call snow map should be out between 2-3pm. Looks like the upper air jet streak and second wave is going to save us

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Post by Fededle22 Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:32 am

Isn't it strange that we are less than 12 hours from this event and we still do not have agreement with the models? It seems that many of our storms this winter have such complicated set ups.
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Post by Guest Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:04 pm

Last minute save? 4 to 8". Tell us yes Frank!

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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:05 pm

I'm  hearing both the GEFS and Ukie are north. 4 to 8 inches for New York City. can anyone confirm
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:06 pm

12z UKMET looks a little better as well, more precip a little further north. Don't know how much is snow though.

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Post by algae888 Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:10 pm

from a met from another board.
"The reality of the situation though with the two waves being so close is that if wave 1 goes north so should wave two, the first wave isn't a dynamic system that would pull the boundary south, if anything it slows it up and keeps it north, it's possible the models are having trouble again because of two different features following so closely."

 
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