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1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th

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Post by Quietace Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:35 pm

@algae888 wrote:the other thing to watch is something that scott said earlier about thermal profiles being warm in almost all layers of atmosphere and will take time to cool esp in c/s nj and south. there will be a lot of warm air  overrunning moisture and if column doesn't cool fast enough I can see a scenario where there Is a lot of sleet in places I just mentioned.
I agree with this, I feel this storm has small chance to have bust potential...anytime you are timing the transition from R to S there can be BL issues....ratios could be cut a few hours after the change over below 10:1 before they rise towards 15:1 as the Storm ends...but most models have cooled over today and only really the NAM is pretty warm. But you are right it can and may cause issues, though I'm not worried right now

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:46 pm

So for LaGuardia Airport's snow totals from the 15Z SREF to the latest 21Z SREF, the mean went down from ~7.87" to ~6.05", the median went down from 9.46" to 7.675", the maximum amount went down from 16.15" to 12.21" and there are now two members at 0" instead of one.

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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:54 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@algae888 wrote:the other thing to watch is something that scott said earlier about thermal profiles being warm in almost all layers of atmosphere and will take time to cool esp in c/s nj and south. there will be a lot of warm air  overrunning moisture and if column doesn't cool fast enough I can see a scenario where there Is a lot of sleet in places I just mentioned.
I agree with this, I feel this storm has small chance to have bust potential...anytime you are timing the transition from R to S there can be BL issues....ratios could be cut a few hours after the change over below 10:1 before they rise towards 15:1 as the Storm ends...but most models have cooled over today and only really the NAM is pretty warm. But you are right it can and may cause issues, though I'm not worried right now
ace I think you and skins are in a good spot. I would be more concerned south of you. if you think about it wherever the best lift sets up with the frontogenesis those places should  have the column cool and get heavy snow.  however south of the best lift dynamics may not cool the column enough and you end up with some other form of precip rather than snow and there may end up being a very narrow band of heavy snow.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:57 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:So for LaGuardia Airport's snow totals from the 15Z SREF to the latest 21Z SREF, the mean went down from ~7.87" to ~6.05", the median went down from 9.46" to 7.675", the maximum amount went down from 16.15" to 12.21" and there are now two members at 0" instead of one.

The bad trends continue.

As princess Leia said to C3PO in leaving the message for Obiwan in the first Star Wars.

"Help us POS nameless model, you're our only hope"
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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:00 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:So for LaGuardia Airport's snow totals from the 15Z SREF to the latest 21Z SREF, the mean went down from ~7.87" to ~6.05", the median went down from 9.46" to 7.675", the maximum amount went down from 16.15" to 12.21" and there are now two members at 0" instead of one.

The bad trends continue.

As princess Leia said to C3PO in leaving the message for Obiwan in the first Star Wars.

"Help us POS nameless model, you're our only hope"
I just think the srefs are closing in on a solution obviously they are losing the extremes on both end and coming to a consensus. however the other member showing no snow is a little worrisome.
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Post by Quietace Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:02 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@algae888 wrote:the other thing to watch is something that scott said earlier about thermal profiles being warm in almost all layers of atmosphere and will take time to cool esp in c/s nj and south. there will be a lot of warm air  overrunning moisture and if column doesn't cool fast enough I can see a scenario where there Is a lot of sleet in places I just mentioned.
I agree with this, I feel this storm has small chance to have bust potential...anytime you are timing the transition from R to S there can be BL issues....ratios could be cut a few hours after the change over below 10:1 before they rise towards 15:1 as the Storm ends...but most models have cooled over today and only really the NAM is pretty warm. But you are right it can and may cause issues, though I'm not worried right now
ace I think you and skins are in a good spot. I would be more concerned south of you. if you think about it wherever the best lift sets up with the frontogenesis those places should  have the column cool and get heavy snow.  however south of the best lift dynamics may not cool the column enough and you end up with some other form of precip rather than snow and there may end up being a very narrow band of heavy snow.
Temps will cool regardless as the high presses down..

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Post by WeatherBob Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:05 pm

I am thinking 3 to 5 in for NNJ, NYC Metro. I have seen a lot of situations like this over the years since 1975 when I started following Meteorology. If there is no organized storm bringing the snow and its basically a frontal boundary type situation, like this one, extremely tough to get more than a 1/2 in precip total.

I agree, it will be tough to get the full column to cool down quick enough especially over southern central and southern NJ. If it was a developing coastal low, the cold air is pulled into the storm rather quickly, depending upon the rate of deepening.

Just my thoughts up to this point. See what the models say tonight!
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:07 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:So for LaGuardia Airport's snow totals from the 15Z SREF to the latest 21Z SREF, the mean went down from ~7.87" to ~6.05", the median went down from 9.46" to 7.675", the maximum amount went down from 16.15" to 12.21" and there are now two members at 0" instead of one.

The bad trends continue.

As princess Leia said to C3PO in leaving the message for Obiwan in the first Star Wars.

"Help us POS nameless model, you're our only hope"

This reminds me of the system that happened on this day last year. 3-5 days before that event, the GFS was consistent on at least 6" of snow for the NYC region. Then the south trend commenced two days before the event and by the day before it happened, the writing was on the wall, all I got was a coating.

Here is a link to the thread from that event. I can't see Frank's final snow map from then, but I remember it had coating to three inches for the NYC region with higher amounts to the south (Quietace I know you did well with this one like you did much of that month).

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t271-final-snow-map-obs-thread-3-3-storm

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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:12 pm

so far through hour 24 nam is a little south. however precip shield over Missouri and illinios is more expansive and juicier,
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:16 pm

Looks good,

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 2 Nam_pt10
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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:17 pm

hp looks to being pressing down a little more compared to 18z and south east ridge is slightly more compressed.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:18 pm

It looks further south, NYC heading out of the picture if this continues, yikes Al you and I are barely in it.

1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 2 Nam_pt11
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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:21 pm

precip shield is slightly north at hr 33
1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 2 Nam_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip
00z
1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 2 Nam_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip
18z
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Post by Quietace Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:23 pm

NAM is a good run for NYC LI south

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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:24 pm

and then slightly south at hr 36
1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 2 Nam_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip
00z
1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th  - Page 2 Nam_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip
18z
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Post by Quietace Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:25 pm

Models still picking up on drier north side of system...

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:25 pm

Ace does that include us? NAM stick on wxbell as usual.
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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:25 pm

jman and ace it looks to be coming in at a different angle. more s/w to n/e than 18z
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:26 pm

According to the closeup I have Al we snow for 6 hrs, sheesh this is going to be nothing.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:27 pm

Close call for the city and LI for heavier snow, at this point I think we can pretty much rule out more than 3-4 inches in the HV south of I84 tops. Less than 2 north of I84


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:29 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:28 pm

This is like last year all over again..... Mad
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Post by Quietace Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:28 pm

Wow the NAM crushes I-195 south...NYC looks like 3-6 sharp cutoff north of there

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Post by Quietace Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:29 pm

NYC and south shore really don't do terrible verbatim

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:29 pm

Wait hr 42 it looked like it was over, hr 45 it appears another area is headed in.
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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:30 pm

jman I think you're wrong looks like we get .5 to .6qpf with ratio's that's 6-8"
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